A top Bloomberg analyst is sounding the alarm on Bitcoin’s extraordinary bull run — and hinting that it may no longer be sustainable.
Mike McGlone was long one of the most bullish voices in the crypto space, and confidently predicted BTC would hit $100,000 years before it happened.
He rightly argues that Donald Trump played an instrumental role in getting the world’s biggest cryptocurrency into six-figure territory — not least because of his many pro-BTC policies on the campaign trail.
But in examining how Bitcoin has performed against other asset classes over the past 12 months, he comes to an uncomfortable conclusion: returns have been far healthier for gold. McGlone wrote:
“Since December 6, Bitcoin’s roughly 10% gain compares with a 28% surge for gold and 7% for the S&P 500. Born of the financial crisis, cryptocurrencies have led an unprecedented outperformance period for US risk assets that may now be reaching a turning point.”
The Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist theorizes that we may be around to reach “peak bubble” — drawing comparisons with the Great Depression back in 1929, or the almighty stock market crash that roiled Japan’s economy in 1989.
That being said, some Bitcoiners would rankle at McGlone’s analysis. In a recent research note seen by Cryptonews, he argues that BTC now has more than 20 million competitors in the crypto space. Maxis would shoot back without hesitation, and say altcoins are completely incomparable.
Nonetheless, there are other data points causing concern here — including how Bitcoin’s correlation to the S&P 500 over the past 48 months has been close to record highs. What’s more, McGlone points to charts that show the S&P 500’s total returns have only ended in negative territory twice since 2008, indicating that there might be a high degree of complacency among traders.
“The ratio of benchmark digital-asset Bitcoin to store-of-value gold has been a leading indicator, but is trailing in 2025. Is it a sign of overdue reversion in risk assets?”
Reading between the lines, McGlone comes to a stark conclusion: the S&P 500’s performance between now and the end of the year could hold the keys for Bitcoin — and determine whether the current bull run will continue.
“Our view is the S&P 500 must maintain its gains, or else. A down year for beta would counter consensus and could spark a next big trade favoring US Treasuries, on the back of record-setting gold.”
So… how are analysts currently feeling about the performance of this flagship index? Well, a degree of bullishness does remain for the final four months of 2025. With the vast majority of companies within the S&P 500 surpassing earnings expectations during results throughout August, the likes of UBS have upped their year-end targets to 6,600 points. Other banks have done the same — undoubtedly buoyed by the prospect of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates next month.
Elsewhere, McGlone also sounds the alarm about Strategy — arguing “crypto dominos could tumble” if the share price of this highly leveraged company continues to dwindle.
“The price of the software company — now the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin — has dropped to the steepest discount to its 200-day moving average since 2023. Is it another dip to buy? It better be, or else, is our take.”
The analyst also believes it is “probable” that Bitcoin will revisit $100,000 support at some point soon — marking a 20% pullback from all-time highs. All traditional definitions would point to a bear market at this stage, but BTC has a track record of bouncing back from stomach-churning corrections like this.
You could argue that McGlone is something of an outlier here. Many other analysts remain quietly optimistic that BTC still has room to run — with some anticipating a blow-off top of around $180,000 later on in the year.
But with a heady cocktail of Donald Trump’s tariffs, continued uncertainty about their impact on inflation, a 62% jump from current levels is far from guaranteed.
Polymarket bettors have expressed confidence that there will be another all-time high in 2025 — but are tempering their bets. Just 59% currently believe BTC will breach $130,000 before the year is over, compared with close to 85% just two weeks ago. Whatever happens by New Year’s Eve, make no mistake: there will be winners and losers.
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