Just two months in the past, many within the West thought President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey might be shifting away from what they thought-about his overly shut relationship with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.
Mr. Erdogan had a heat assembly with President Biden. Turkey allowed a gaggle of celebrated Ukrainian commanders, being held within the nation as a part of a prisoner alternate deal, to return to the battlefield, angering Russia. And Mr. Erdogan dropped his resistance to permitting Sweden to be a part of NATO, strengthening the navy alliance’s efforts to isolate Russia.
But there was no sign of a significant change in Mr. Erdogan’s balancing act between Russia and the West on Monday, when he and Mr. Putin stood facet by facet within the Russian resort metropolis of Sochi and spoke of additional increasing their nations’ partnership. They would enhance commerce and work collectively on power points, they stated, regardless of efforts by Mr. Erdogan’s NATO allies to cripple Russia’s financial system and restrict its entry to international power markets.
They additionally mentioned a extra urgent geopolitical matter — the resumption of an settlement to permit the export of Ukrainian grain via the Black Sea — though they introduced no concrete progress.
The leaders’ joint look made clear that their relationship endures and can seemingly proceed to develop, largely as a result of each side have extra to achieve from the partnership than they stand to lose, analysts stated.
As Russia finds itself ostracized from the West, Turkey has served as an important channel, declining to be a part of Western sanctions and persevering with to ship a lot wanted items to Russia. For Turkey, scuffling with an financial disaster, Russia has proved a fertile marketplace for Turkish exports and has bolstered the Turkish authorities’s funds with delayed gasoline funds and deposits in Turkey’s central financial institution.
“As far as Erdogan is concerned, he is, in my opinion, living in the best of both worlds,” stated Ahmet Kasim Han, a professor of worldwide relations at Beykoz University in Istanbul.
The Turkish chief has managed to take steps to please his NATO allies, like agreeing to admit Sweden to NATO and assembly with Mr. Biden, with out jeopardizing the numerous perks of his relationship with Mr. Putin.
Mr. Putin additionally advantages from his open channel with the chief of a NATO nation, Mr. Han stated, as a result of it provides him an oblique approach to talk his views to the remainder of the alliance, generally to the frustration of different members.
“If I were in the Kremlin, I would prefer a member of the alliance that sometimes hinders and delays issues that are of tactical importance to the members,” Mr. Han stated. “It is nice to have a nuisance like that among your rivals.”
Since Russia invaded Ukraine 18 months in the past, deciphering the connection between Mr. Putin and Mr. Erdogan has been an evolving puzzle for Western policymakers as they navigate the complicated diplomacy surrounding the battle.
For the West, Mr. Putin is the battle’s villain, and the United States and different NATO members have sought to hobble his battle machine with sanctions.
Mr. Erdogan staked out a extra complicated place, condemning Russia’s invasion and providing support to Ukraine whereas increasing his nation’s financial ties with Russia and referring to Mr. Putin as “my friend.”
That method gave Mr. Erdogan a singular diplomatic position, permitting Turkey to assist dealer prisoner exchanges and the grain deal, which he and others have credited with facilitating meals deliveries to poor nations. But his refusal to shun Mr. Putin annoyed NATO allies and led some policymakers to privately query which facet he was on.
This summer season appeared to provide indications that Mr. Erdogan needed hotter ties together with his NATO allies. During his assembly with Mr. Biden, Mr. Erdogan spoke of “a new process” with the United States. Mr. Erdogan welcomed President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine to Turkey and stated that Ukraine “deserves NATO membership with no doubt,” a place that’s anathema to Russia.
But on Monday, it was clear how entwined Russia and Turkey have change into.
Mr. Putin famous how a lot commerce between Russia and Turkey had elevated in recent times. He talked about Turkey’s standing as a go-to vacation spot for Russian vacationers who now wrestle to journey elsewhere in Europe. About 5 million Russians visited Turkey final 12 months, Mr. Putin stated.
The two nations more and more cooperate on power points, and plan to accomplish that extra sooner or later. Last winter, Moscow allowed Mr. Erdogan to delay funds for Russian gasoline and permitted the Turkish authorities to make some funds in forex apart from {dollars}, easing stress on Turkey’s reserves.
For his half, Mr. Erdogan spoke proudly of a nuclear energy plant that Russia is constructing close to the Mediterranean coast in Turkey and expressed curiosity in a second one.
Alexander Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, stated the leaders additionally seemingly mentioned different points.
Both nations’ delegations included their central financial institution chiefs, suggesting talks about conducting extra commerce of their nationwide currencies, Mr. Gabuev stated. He additionally famous the attendance of Dmitri Shugayev, director of the Russian Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, that means that navy issues have been additionally seemingly mentioned.
“There is the underwater part of the iceberg, which we don’t know,” Mr. Gabuev stated.
Despite their speak of elevated cooperation, the 2 leaders failed to restore the Black Sea grain deal, which had been brokered by Turkey and the United Nations final 12 months. Russia withdrew in July, saying that it had not obtained the advantages anticipated from the association.
Turkey and Russia have beforehand mentioned establishing a gasoline hub in Turkey. The thought appeals to Mr. Erdogan as a approach to enhance Turkey’s weak place in international power markets, and it may permit Russia to promote its gasoline to nations that may not purchase it instantly.
Mr. Putin stated on Monday that the Russian state power large Gazprom had given a “road map” for the mission to its Turkish counterpart, BOTAS.
Energy specialists, nonetheless, have questioned the viability of Mr. Putin’s proposal, saying it appeared unlikely that the European Union would approve new Russian gasoline conduits or search to enhance provides to Europe.
Europe has put appreciable effort into decreasing its reliance on Russian gasoline imports and discovering various sources like liquefied pure gasoline shipments from the United States, Qatar and elsewhere.
Ben Hubbard reported from Istanbul, and Paul Sonne from Berlin. Safak Timur contributed reporting from Istanbul, Stanley Reed from London and Marc Santora from Odesa, Ukraine.
