On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that Ukraine has accepted a 30-day ceasefire with Russia after critical peace talks with the United States in Saudi Arabia.
Washington has, in turn, lifted its pause on military aid and intelligence sharing with Kyiv.
After eight hours of negotiations in the port city of Jeddah, the terms of peace were jointly signed and will be presented to Russia, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who represented Washington in Saudi Arabia, said. The ball is now in Moscow’s court, said Rubio.
Here is what we know about the deal that was struck – and what it means for Russia’s war on Ukraine, now into its fourth year, at a time when US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said that ending the conflict is among his top geopolitical priorities.
What is the ceasefire deal about?
The deal was reached after a meeting in Saudi Arabia. Ukraine was represented by Andriy Yermak, head of Zelenskyy’s office; Andrii Sybiha, the minister of foreign affairs; Rustem Umerov, the minister of defence; and Pavlo Palisa, a colonel in Zelenskyy’s office.
The US was represented by Rubio and National Security Advisor Mike Waltz.
The US and Ukraine released a joint statement after the talks on Tuesday. This statement says that the countries have agreed on “an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties”.
In an X post on Tuesday, Zelenskyy added that the ceasefire will apply to missile, drone and bomb attacks “not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line”.
The joint statement added that this is subject to agreement by Russia – underlining the unusual nature of the agreement. Ceasefire deals are usually struck between warring parties, not one of the nations in a conflict and a country attempting to mediate peace.
The statement said that the US “will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace”.
On Wednesday, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia was waiting to be briefed by the US about the ceasefire proposal before it could comment on whether or not it accepts the proposal’s terms.
What does Ukraine get in return for agreeing to a 30-day ceasefire?
The joint statement added that the US will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and military aid to Ukraine.
After a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Zelenskyy on February 28 at the White House took an acrimonious turn, the US had paused military and intelligence assistance to Ukraine.
The statement added that the presidents of both countries had agreed on inking a deal on Ukraine’s critical minerals “as soon as possible”. The US and Ukraine have been discussing a minerals deal for weeks, which will allow the US to invest in Ukraine’s mineral resources. Trump and Zelenskyy were expected to sign this deal during the Ukrainian leader’s recent White House meeting, but the agreement was not signed.
The joint statement does not explicitly mention any security guarantees to Kyiv – something that Zelenskyy has been seeking.
Trump has repeatedly rejected the idea of the US offering security guarantees. However, the Trump administration has argued that US investment in Ukraine, through the minerals deal, would serve as a security guarantee.
In a Fox News interview that aired on March 3, Vice President JD Vance said: “If you want real security guarantees, if you want to actually ensure that Vladimir Putin does not invade Ukraine again, the very best security guarantee is to give Americans economic upside in the future of Ukraine.” Vance implied that this would deter Russia from attacking Ukraine.
What did Ukraine propose at the meeting?
In a post on his X account on Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the discussion in Saudi Arabia was constructive.
He added that during the meeting, the team from Ukraine proposed three key points; “silence in the skies,” with neither side firing missiles, bombs or launching long-range drone attacks against each other; “silence at sea”; and the release of civilian and military prisoners of war as well as the Ukrainian children who were forcibly sent to Russia.
The Ukrainian leader wrote that Kyiv was ready to accept the proposal. “If Russia agrees, the ceasefire will take effect immediately.”
Rubio also posted on X after the meeting. “We are one step closer to restoring durable peace for Ukraine. The ball is now in Russia’s court.”
How significant is the resumption of US aid and intelligence?
“The US support which was withdrawn in order to force Ukraine into agreeing to the outline of the ceasefire was significant,” Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank, told Al Jazeera. He added that Ukraine had no choice but to accept the deal.
The suspension of military and intelligence sharing was hindering Ukraine on the battlefield.
Even before the war in Ukraine started in February 2022, the US provided significant intelligence support to Ukraine. This support would help Ukraine prepare for incoming Russian attacks and also deploy long-range missiles to attack Russian logistical centres.
On March 5, US officials confirmed that this support was suspended. As the suspension came into effect, Al Jazeera’s Charles Stratford, reporting from Ukraine, spoke with a Ukrainian commander in a unit close to the front line. “He said that his unit and many like him right the way along that 1,300km [808 miles] front line in the east and south of Ukraine relied on American intelligence gathering for around 90 percent of the intelligence work that is done,” Stratford said.
While effects of the intelligence suspension were felt immediately, the suspension of military aid spurred a sense of impending doom. “Without the US military aid, Ukrainian forces will gradually lose combat capability. My guess is that the Ukrainians can hold out for two to four months before their lines buckle and the Russians break through,” Mark Cancian, a former US Marine Corps colonel and a senior adviser with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Al Jazeera at the time.
Will Russia accept a ceasefire?
Russia has not responded to the ceasefire yet.
“It would be strange and out of character if Russia were to agree to the current proposition without presenting additional demands,” Giles said. “Russia has every incentive now to press for additional demands in order to agree to a ceasefire.”
Giles added that Russian President Vladimir Putin could push for additional demands including sanctions relief or “permanent restrictions on security guarantees given to Ukraine”. Since the war began in 2022, the US and its allies have imposed at least 21,692 sanctions on Russia.
The sanctions have targeted Russian individuals, media organisations, the military sector, energy sector, aviation, shipbuilding and telecommunications, among other sectors.
“If past performance is any guide, those demands will be backed by the US,” Giles said.
Trump, though, said on March 7 that he was “strongly considering” imposing sanctions and tariffs on Russia until a peace agreement is reached with Ukraine.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said that it has not ruled out contacts with US representatives over the next few days, Russian state news agency RIA reported. Trump has said that the US is planning to communicate with Russia in the coming days.
Trump’s Middle East Special Envoy Steve Witkoff plans to visit Moscow to speak with Putin in the coming days, according to two anonymous sources briefed on the matter, Reuters reported. This will be Witkoff’s second meeting with Putin since last month, when he became the first high-level US official to travel to Russia since the beginning of the war.
Waltz, the national security adviser, also told a press conference after the discussion in Jeddah: “I will talk to my Russian counterpart in the coming days.”
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