United States President Donald Trump’s plan to cut a deal with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin over Ukraine and his administration’s new approach to transatlantic ties have left European leaders concerned.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Tuesday held a meeting with a Russian delegation led by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and aimed at ending the war in Ukraine.
The meeting in the Saudi Arabian capital Riyadh comes after Trump spoke to Putin last week and agreed to hold peace talks to end the three-year conflict without involving his European allies. Trump also said that he might meet Putin in Saudi Arabia.
This has sparked concern among European leaders and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who has warned that Kyiv would not recognise any deal made without its involvement.
“No decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine … Europe must have a seat at the table when decisions about Europe are being made,” Zelenskyy said at the Munich Security Conference this weekend.
So what’s the Trump administration’s new approach, and how will Europe respond to the new reality?
What’s on the agenda at US-Russia talks in Riyadh?
Rubio, alongside national security adviser Mike Waltz and special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff, has held talks with the Russian delegation led by Lavrov.
Along with aiming to reset the fractured relations between Washington and Moscow, the Riyadh talks may likely prepare for a possible meeting between Trump and Putin. The talks, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, would be “primarily devoted to restoring the whole complex of Russian-American relations”.
“The world is holding its breath as the meeting between these high-ranking officials in Riyadh has started,” Al Jazeera’s Yulia Shapovalova said, adding that no breakthrough is expected.
“The settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, as well as improving Russia-US bilateral relations – which have hit rock bottom – are on the agenda,” she said, reporting from Moscow.
Why are Europe and Ukraine concerned about not being invited to the Riyadh summit?
Zelenskyy, who travelled to the United Arab Emirates on Monday, reiterated that he would not accept any decisions between the US and Russia about Ukraine.
European leaders have also expressed their concerns about the exclusion of Europe and Ukraine from the discussions, and have expressed that they want to be part of the negotiations.
“A dictated peace will therefore never find our support,” said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz over the weekend after Trump’s unilateral overture to Putin on Wednesday.
Trump later told reporters that Zelenskyy will be involved in the negotiations, without giving further explanation. Keith Kellogg, the US envoy for Ukraine, also tried to reassure that no deal would be imposed on Ukraine.
Kellogg is heading to Kyiv on a three-day visit.
Kyiv, which has lost nearly 20 percent of its territory and thousands of lives, would like to have a deal that addresses its legitimate security concerns.
“We seek a strong and lasting peace in Ukraine. To achieve this, Russia must end its aggression, and this must be accompanied by strong and credible security guarantees for the Ukrainians,” France’s President Emmanuel Macron posted on X a day after he hosted European leaders in Paris.
European leaders are concerned “because neither Ukraine nor Europe is represented. And they think Trump will sell Ukraine down the river,” Timothy Ash, an associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.
“They fear a similar outcome as per Trump’s messaging on Gaza – he simply does not care,” Ash said, referring to Trump’s proposal to “take over” Gaza after displacing Palestinians, which would amount to ethnic cleansing and a war crime.
How are European leaders responding to Trump’s policy shift on Ukraine and transatlantic ties?
European leaders have been left scrambling for responses after the new Trump administration upended the US’s Ukraine policy for the past three years and put forth proposals that will change the dynamics of the transatlantic alliance in place since 1949.
On Sunday, Kellogg, Trump’s envoy for Ukraine, announced that Europe would not be at the table for Ukraine peace negotiations. Last week, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said that membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for Ukraine was “unrealistic”.
In line with Trump’s rhetoric that Europe should increase its spending on NATO, Hegseth indicated that Europe should ramp up its financial and military responsibilities in Ukraine. He also ruled out deployment of US troops in Ukraine after any deal is signed with Russia. US Vice President JD Vance reiterated the same point: Brussels should “step up in a big way to provide for its own defence”.
Stung by the tone and messaging from Trump’s top aides, European leaders on Monday gathered in Paris to devise their next steps. Macron was joined by leaders from Germany, Denmark, Poland, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, alongside officials from NATO and the European Union.
“Ready and willing,” NATO chief Mark Rutte posted on X on Monday.
European nations have stepped up their contribution to Kyiv in recent years, providing nearly $140bn in Ukraine aid, more than the US, which has spent about $120bn since the war erupted in February 2022.
Ash from the Chatham House explained that Europe is “realising the US is an unreliable partner”, as Trump’s overture to Putin is being seen by some as a betrayal by a key ally.
Europe’s main fear is Russian aggression beyond Ukraine, as Washington has been Europe’s security guarantor for decades through the NATO alliance. But Trump has been demanding that Europe shoulder more responsibility for its security. According to media reports, the US wants to pull out some of its troops from Europe.
In 2014, NATO member states pledged to contribute at least two percent of their gross domestic product (GDP) to defence, but more than 10 years later, only 23 of the 32 members have honoured their commitment. Trump wants them to increase defence spending to five percent of GDP.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on Monday posted on X, saying “we need a surge in defence in Europe”.
The transatlantic rift comes as Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on Europe, calling the economic relationship with the European Union “an atrocity”.
European leaders have said they would retaliate if Trump launches a trade war. Trump has already slapped steep tariffs on several countries, including China.
Can Europe provide security guarantees to Ukraine?
Last week, European sources reported that Washington had circulated a questionnaire among European leaders, asking what the countries could contribute in terms of security guarantees for Ukraine. Al Jazeera, however, has not seen the questionnaire.
The Trump administration wants Europe to take the front seat in upholding security in Kyiv, since the US has other priorities, such as border security.
Anatol Lieven, the director of the Eurasia Program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that there are key concerns that only Washington and Moscow can negotiate.
“That includes, obviously, NATO membership because it is for NATO, led by the US, to invite new members.”
However, Lieven said, “When it comes to the reconstruction of Ukraine and Ukrainian membership at the European Union, this will be for Ukrainians and Europeans to decide.”
At the Paris meeting, European leaders failed to agree on whether troops should be sent to Ukraine following a peace deal.
“Nothing has emerged from the public statements from the Paris meeting that shows Europe is any closer to proposing, let alone implementing, anything,” Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera.
United Kingdom Prime Minister Keir Starmer has floated the idea of sending British troops to Ukraine as well as Sweden. But German Chancellor Scholz has called the discussion to deploy troops “completely premature”.
Giles added that in terms of deployment of troops to Ukraine, “Europe’s military heavyweights are either too hesitant like Germany or they understand this places their own security at risk, like Finland.”
This raises questions about how – and from where – such a force would be created.
“Even though Scholz has written this conversation off as premature, it needs to be had, to understand what Europe’s goals are,” Giles told Al Jazeera.
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