Top 10 African Countries with Free-Floating or Market-Determined Currency Exchange Regimes in 2025 | USAEMALL.com

In Summary

• In 2025, several African countries operate free-floating or market-determined exchange rates, enhancing transparency, investor confidence, and economic flexibility.
• Leading examples include Egypt, Ghana, South Africa, Kenya, and Mauritius, combining floating rates with inflation-targeting and structural reforms.
• Market-based FX regimes support resilience to shocks, improved trade competitiveness, and foreign investment, despite external vulnerabilities and institutional challenges.

Deep Dive!!!

Sunday 26 October 2025 – Africa’s foreign exchange landscape has undergone significant transformation in recent years, driven by a combination of macroeconomic reforms, structural adjustments, and global financial integration. In 2025, a growing number of African countries are adopting free-floating or market-determined currency exchange regimes, moving away from rigid fixed pegs or heavily managed systems. This shift reflects efforts to enhance transparency, improve the allocation of foreign currency, and strengthen investor confidence, while allowing exchange rates to more accurately reflect economic fundamentals such as trade balances, inflation, and capital flows.

Countries across the continent have approached market-determined regimes with varying degrees of flexibility and institutional support. Economies like Egypt and Ghana have implemented floating exchange rates alongside inflation-targeting frameworks, ensuring that monetary policy anchors inflation expectations even as their currencies adjust to market forces. Others, including Kenya, South Africa, and Mauritius, operate largely flexible systems, leveraging deep financial markets and policy reforms to manage liquidity and volatility. These approaches have enabled smoother adjustment to external shocks, enhanced export competitiveness, and facilitated foreign investment inflows, highlighting the benefits of market-responsive exchange rate policies.

Despite the progress, African economies still face challenges in fully realizing the potential of floating regimes. External vulnerabilities, such as commodity price fluctuations, debt obligations, and regional imbalances, can create pressure on exchange rates, while institutional capacity and financial market depth remain key determinants of stability. Nonetheless, the countries identified in this ranking demonstrate that disciplined policy implementation, supported by credible monetary frameworks and structural reforms, can successfully anchor market-based exchange rate systems. By 2025, these nations serve as leading examples of how freer, flexible currencies can contribute to economic resilience, growth, and integration into the global financial system.

Are you an investor, business professional or just interest in the African capital markets, In this article, I bring you the top 10 African countries with Free-floating currency exchange Regimes in 2025

10. Madagascar

Madagascar’s exchange-rate regime in 2025 is best understood through the IMF’s own classification and the policy actions of the Banky Foiben’i Madagasikara (BFM). The IMF’s 2024 Article IV and subsequent staff reports classify Madagascar’s arrangement de jure and de facto as floating (market-determined), a designation that reflects both legal framework and observed market behavior over 2024–2025. This classification matters because it frames how analysts and investors judge monetary autonomy: a floating ariary allows the exchange rate to act as a shock absorber rather than forcing the central bank into frequent, large-scale FX intervention.

Behind that label are concrete operational changes. Since 2024 the BFM has shifted toward an interest-rate-based operational framework and tightened policy to tackle inflationary pressures, with policy-rate increases and clearer forward guidance evident in central-bank communications and press coverage. These moves, together with higher international reserves (reported around six months of imports in 2024), have given the BFM the room to allow market-determined exchange-rate movements without causing immediate financial instability. In short: Madagascar’s float is supported by stronger reserve buffers and a more conventional monetary policy toolkit.

Macro outcomes to date show why a market-determined ariary is reasonably appropriate: growth rebounded modestly in 2024 (around the low-4% range) even as headline inflation moderated from earlier spikes to the high single digits through early-to-mid 2025. That combination, recovering activity with easing but persistent inflation, means the central bank must finely balance the exchange-rate pass-through to consumer prices against the need for an adjustable currency. The World Bank, IMF and AfDB notes all point to a widened current-account deficit in early 2025 and some vulnerability to commodity or tourism shocks, underscoring that the float works so long as external receipts and reserves remain adequate.

For policymakers and market participants the takeaway is pragmatic. Madagascar’s floating ariary is an appropriate regime given its external openness and the need for shock absorption, but it is not frictionless: risks include swings in key export sectors (vanilla, textiles, tourism), weather-related crop shocks, and the still-shallow depth of local FX markets. The IMF and World Bank therefore recommend maintaining conservative reserve targets, continuing monetary-policy credibility via clear communication and interest-rate management, and accelerating structural reforms that diversify export earnings, so the float remains a policy asset rather than a source of episodic volatility.

9. Uganda

Uganda’s monetary policy framework in 2025 continues to reflect a clear commitment to a free-floating exchange rate paired with an inflation-targeting regime, as classified by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Bank of Uganda (BoU) allows the Ugandan shilling (UGX) to move in response to market supply and demand, intervening only to smooth excessive volatility rather than to defend a predetermined rate. This regime is among the most liberal in East Africa, contrasting sharply with Kenya’s more managed float and Tanzania’s quasi-peg practices. According to the IMF’s 2024 Article IV consultation, Uganda’s policy consistency and operational transparency have strengthened confidence in its exchange-rate system and supported macroeconomic stability despite regional and global shocks.

The country’s performance in 2024–2025 highlights how this flexible system functions in practice. The Ugandan shilling traded largely between UGX 3,700–3,900 per U.S. dollar in 2024, depreciating modestly due to global dollar strength but avoiding the sharp instability seen in some neighboring currencies. The BoU’s decision to raise its Central Bank Rate (CBR) to 10% in mid-2024 helped manage inflation, which eased from double-digit levels in 2023 to an average of 5.7% in early 2025, aligning with the bank’s medium-term target. Uganda’s forex reserves remained stable, covering roughly 4.5 months of imports, providing sufficient buffers to accommodate market-driven exchange movements. This policy mix has earned recognition from both the IMF and World Bank as a model for flexible, credible monetary management in sub-Saharan Africa.

Economically, Uganda’s flexible exchange-rate framework continues to serve as an anchor for its growing economy. With GDP growth estimated at 5.8% in 2024 and projected to edge above 6% in 2025, the country’s resilience owes much to its dynamic agricultural exports, burgeoning oil sector development, and expanding services base. The free-floating shilling allows Uganda to absorb external shocks, such as fluctuations in commodity prices and regional capital flows, without exhausting foreign reserves or destabilizing fiscal accounts. This adaptive capacity has been especially important amid the tightening of global financial conditions and currency pressures across emerging markets in 2024–2025.

From a policy-analysis standpoint, Uganda’s inclusion among Africa’s top ten free-floating regimes underscores its progress toward monetary independence and policy credibility. The BoU’s disciplined communication, open-market operations, and improved foreign exchange transparency have solidified market trust. Challenges remain; notably, shallow capital markets and occasional speculative pressure, but Uganda’s monetary authorities continue to prioritize exchange-rate flexibility as a safeguard against external shocks. As of 2025, Uganda stands as one of the most consistent practitioners of a market-determined exchange-rate system on the continent, balancing macroeconomic stability with long-term structural reform.

8. Angola

Angola’s exchange rate regime in 2025 remains officially classified by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a “floating” system, reflecting the country’s ongoing transition toward a fully market-determined foreign exchange environment. Since the 2018 reforms that ended the long-standing currency peg to the U.S. dollar, Angola has allowed the Kwanza (AOA) to fluctuate more freely in response to supply and demand dynamics in the interbank market. The Banco Nacional de Angola (BNA) has since prioritized monetary stabilization, inflation targeting, and exchange rate flexibility, a significant shift from the oil-dependent and centrally controlled model of previous decades. This policy shift, supported by IMF programs and fiscal adjustments, has strengthened investor confidence and improved transparency in Angola’s financial markets.

By 2024–2025, Angola’s exchange rate performance illustrates the gradual success of these reforms. After a volatile 2023 marked by depreciation pressures following a decline in oil prices, the Kwanza stabilized within the range of AOA 830–880 per U.S. dollar by early 2025. This moderation followed the BNA’s decision to tighten monetary policy and enhance liquidity management mechanisms. According to IMF’s 2024 Article IV Consultation, Angola’s foreign exchange reserves stood at approximately $15 billion, covering nearly six months of imports, reflecting improved external buffers. Inflation, which reached 27% in 2023, declined to about 19% by mid-2025, demonstrating that the floating regime, though imperfect, has allowed for gradual rebalancing without the severe dislocations typical of fixed systems under fiscal stress.

Angola’s economic structure remains heavily dependent on oil, which accounts for over 85% of export earnings and about 30% of GDP. However, the floating exchange rate has helped absorb external shocks caused by oil price volatility and global market shifts. The country’s diversification agenda, led by the government’s National Development Plan (2023–2027), seeks to boost non-oil exports, including agriculture, manufacturing, and diamonds, using the flexible exchange rate as a competitive advantage. In 2025, GDP growth is projected at 3.2%, supported by stable oil output, private-sector recovery, and easing inflationary pressures. The liberalized FX regime has also improved transparency, reduced the black-market premium, and facilitated repatriation of profits by foreign investors, all of which enhance Angola’s global competitiveness.

From a policy analysis perspective, Angola’s partially free-floating currency places it among Africa’s most progressive monetary reformers. The central bank’s approach of guided flexibility, where interventions occur only to prevent disorderly market movements, reflects a maturing policy stance. Challenges persist, including a narrow export base and limited FX market depth, but Angola’s continued adherence to IMF-supported frameworks demonstrates commitment to stability and modernization. As of 2025, Angola stands as one of Africa’s most significant examples of a resource-dependent nation transitioning toward market-determined exchange management, balancing fiscal discipline with exchange rate adaptability in a challenging global environment.

7. Ethiopia

Ethiopia’s transition toward a more market-determined exchange rate system marks one of the most significant economic policy shifts in East Africa in recent years. According to the IMF’s 2024 Country Report on Ethiopia, the government began implementing gradual foreign exchange liberalization under its Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda, supported by IMF and World Bank financing frameworks. The move came after years of managing a tightly controlled regime that maintained an artificially low birr exchange rate. In 2025, the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) continues to guide the market through a crawling peg mechanism, but with wider daily trading bands, allowing the birr to respond more freely to supply and demand forces. This policy adjustment reflects the government’s broader goal of improving transparency, attracting investment, and alleviating chronic foreign exchange shortages.

By early 2025, the Ethiopian birr (ETB) traded around ETB 114–118 per U.S. dollar in the official market, a marked adjustment from the 2023 average of ETB 56 before liberalization efforts began. The spread between the official and parallel market rates, which had exceeded 100% in 2022, has narrowed considerably, signaling progress toward unification. IMF data shows that Ethiopia’s foreign exchange reserves improved to approximately $3.8 billion by mid-2025, covering about two months of imports, a modest but notable recovery supported by reforms, debt restructuring talks, and improved exports of coffee, gold, and horticultural products. Inflation, which had surged to 30% in 2023, eased to around 20% in mid-2025, partly due to better monetary coordination and the gradual stabilization of the currency.

The liberalization process has not been without challenges. Ethiopia’s economy remains under structural strain from ongoing fiscal deficits, debt obligations, and the aftermath of conflict in the Tigray region. However, the shift to a more flexible exchange rate has strengthened macroeconomic credibility and positioned the country for increased foreign direct investment (FDI) in manufacturing, agriculture, and energy. The World Bank’s 2025 African Macro Update notes that Ethiopia’s floating exchange policy is essential for its ambition to join the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) competitively, as it improves export pricing, reduces distortions, and attracts private capital. Additionally, the NBE is expanding the interbank FX market, creating a foundation for a fully market-driven system over the next few years.

From a policy and investment perspective, Ethiopia’s move toward a floating regime represents both risk and opportunity. While short-term volatility remains a concern, the reforms mark a necessary correction after decades of exchange rate misalignment that discouraged exports and strained external reserves. As of 2025, Ethiopia stands as one of Africa’s most closely watched reform cases — a nation in transition from a highly controlled economy toward a market-oriented framework. If sustained, this shift could transform Ethiopia into a stronger, more resilient participant in global trade, with a currency system better aligned to market realities and economic fundamentals.

6. Zambia

Zambia’s exchange-rate arrangement is formally classified by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a “floating” regime, though the staff report notes that in practice it exhibits a “crawl‐like” or “de facto” managed element. The local currency, the kwacha (ZMW), is determined in the interbank market with limited central-bank intervention, indicating a market orientation. The IMF in its 2025 Article IV/Extended Credit Facility review emphasises that Zambia’s exchange-rate flexibility remains a key policy tool in absorbing external shocks while reforms progress. This framework places Zambia among those African economies where the currency is comparatively freer and more responsive to economic fundamentals than in strictly pegged systems.

Looking at macroeconomic outcomes, Zambia’s flexible exchange-rate regime appears to be functioning under improvement in many respects. Real GDP growth, after a sharp drop in earlier years, recovered to approximately 4.0 percent in 2024, and is projected at 5.8 percent in 2025 under the IMF programme. Inflation remains elevated but is easing: the IMF projects headline inflation around 11 percent by end-2025, down from higher levels in 2024. Foreign‐exchange reserves also improved to about 4.2-4.5 months of imports by mid-2025, which gives the monetary authorities greater ability to let the kwacha move without immediate destabilising interventions. These indicators together suggest that the market-determined exchange rate is supported by underlying institutional adjustments.

However, despite the progress, material challenges remain for Zambia’s regime. The economy is heavily copper-dependent, meaning global commodity price shocks impact export earnings and thus FX supply. The IMF staff commentary emphasises the still high risk of external and public debt distress, even under the reform programme. Furthermore, while the de jure regime is floating, structural limitations such as shallow foreign exchange market liquidity, periodic power shortages, and drought-exposed agriculture introduce vulnerabilities. A fully independent floating exchange rate requires robust institutional guardrails and diversification, areas where Zambia continues to work. From a policy-analysis perspective, while Zambia ranks solidly among African countries with market-determined or largely flexible currency regimes, its journey toward a truly resilient free-float remains ongoing.

5. Mauritius

Mauritius occupies a distinctive position among African economies in 2025: its exchange-rate arrangement is officially classified by the IMF as market-determined (floating) and the country operates an inflation-targeting framework under the Bank of Mauritius (BoM). The IMF’s 2024–25 Article IV consultations reaffirmed this policy stance and noted that the authorities allow the Mauritian rupee to move in response to market forces while using interest-rate policy to achieve price stability.

That institutional setup has been supported by solid macroeconomic performance through 2024–25. Mauritius recorded real GDP growth near 4.7% in 2024, inflation eased into the Bank’s 2–5% target band (headline inflation fell to about 3.6% in 2024), and official foreign-exchange reserves rose to roughly US$8.4–8.5 billion by end-2024, a comfortable buffer that underpins exchange-rate flexibility. These outcomes give the BoM room to let the rupee find market levels while intervening when volatility threatens financial stability.

Operationally, the BoM has combined conventional tools, policy-rate guidance and open-market operations, with careful communication to anchor expectations and limit pass-through from exchange-rate swings to domestic prices. The Bank’s Monetary Policy Report (May 2025) and IMF staff analysis highlight that the floating rupee has acted as a shock absorber amid global volatility, while monetary authorities have stood ready to use liquidity tools to smooth disorderly moves. That pragmatic stance, flexibility plus credible inflation control, helps explain why Mauritius ranks among Africa’s more liberal and market-oriented currency regimes.

Risks and policy priorities are clear. Mauritius faces medium-term fiscal pressures, climate vulnerability and the need to diversify exports beyond tourism and financial services; these constraints mean the BoM must maintain adequate reserves and preserve policy credibility to sustain a floating regime. The IMF recommends recalibrating the macro policy mix to rebuild fiscal space and strengthening macro-prudential oversight so that a market-determined rupee continues to support competitiveness without feeding inflation or financial instability. In short, Mauritius’s floating, inflation-targeting framework is appropriate and well-backed in 2025, but it requires continued fiscal discipline, reserve management, and structural reforms to remain resilient.

4. South Africa

South Africa stands out as the continent’s most advanced example of a free-floating exchange rate system, a classification consistently confirmed by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in their 2024–2025 reviews. The South African rand (ZAR) trades freely on global markets, with its value determined by demand and supply conditions rather than a central bank peg or target band. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) intervenes only to smooth excessive volatility, allowing the exchange rate to act as a genuine buffer against external shocks. This policy, supported by full current account convertibility and the absence of exchange controls on current transactions, cements South Africa’s status as Africa’s leading free-floating currency economy.

By 2025, South Africa’s foreign exchange market remains the most liquid in sub-Saharan Africa, averaging over US$20 billion in daily turnover, according to the Bank for International Settlements Triennial FX Survey (2024). The rand’s free movement reflects investor confidence in South Africa’s capital markets, which are among the deepest and most sophisticated in the developing world. The SARB’s monetary policy framework is anchored by inflation targeting, maintaining a 3–6% inflation band, with headline inflation moderating to around 4.7% in early 2025 after energy and food price pressures subsided. This combination of policy independence, market depth, and strong regulatory oversight allows South Africa to maintain a balance between exchange rate flexibility and macroeconomic stability.

The rand’s volatility, however, remains both a feature and a challenge. External risks—such as global interest rate shifts, commodity price swings, and capital flow reversals—regularly influence its value. In 2024, the rand fluctuated between R17.8 and R19.6 per US dollar, reflecting changes in global risk appetite and domestic fiscal concerns. Yet, the SARB’s consistent policy credibility has mitigated the worst effects of these shocks. The IMF’s 2025 Article IV Consultation Report commends the SARB’s communication strategy and independence, emphasizing that the floating exchange rate continues to serve as a “key shock absorber” in a globally integrated but fragile environment.

Looking forward, South Africa’s free-floating regime remains a cornerstone of its economic resilience. The SARB’s prudent management of inflation expectations, robust financial supervision, and commitment to exchange rate transparency provide confidence to investors and trading partners alike. Nonetheless, sustaining this credibility will depend on broader structural reforms, particularly fiscal consolidation, energy stability, and investment climate improvements. As of 2025, South Africa’s model demonstrates how a genuinely market-driven exchange rate, underpinned by strong institutions and disciplined monetary policy, can coexist with growth ambitions in an emerging African economy.

3. Kenya

Kenya’s exchange rate regime in 2025 reflects its ongoing transition toward greater market flexibility and transparency. According to the IMF’s 2025 Article IV Consultation Report and the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), the country maintains a “floating” exchange rate system, where the value of the Kenyan shilling (KES) is primarily determined by market forces. This shift gained momentum in late 2023 and 2024 after the IMF and World Bank encouraged the removal of informal administrative controls to enhance price discovery in the foreign exchange market. By early 2025, the CBK had scaled back direct interventions, focusing instead on ensuring adequate liquidity and mitigating disorderly market conditions rather than fixing the rate.

The results of these reforms have been visible in Kenya’s financial performance and currency stability. The shilling, which experienced sharp depreciation pressures in 2023 due to dollar shortages and external debt repayments, began to stabilize in 2024. By mid-2025, the KES traded around KES 145–150 per US dollar, compared to over KES 160 in early 2024, reflecting restored market confidence and improved export receipts. The IMF (2025) attributes this recovery to a more transparent exchange rate mechanism, strengthened monetary policy credibility, and increased diaspora remittances, which reached over USD 5.5 billion annually, a critical stabilizing inflow for the country’s balance of payments.

Kenya’s broader economic reforms have further supported the move toward a freer currency regime. Under the IMF’s Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and Extended Fund Facility (EFF) programs, Kenya committed to phasing out exchange rate management practices and deepening its interbank FX market. These reforms align with the government’s broader strategy to attract foreign investment and align with global financial norms. Additionally, the CBK has improved communication on monetary policy, strengthened reserve buffers (reaching about 4.2 months of import cover in 2025), and modernized its monetary operations to improve liquidity forecasting and transparency. These changes collectively bolster Kenya’s reputation as a reform-driven economy with a progressively market-determined exchange rate system.

Nonetheless, Kenya continues to face challenges typical of frontier economies transitioning to freer regimes. External vulnerabilities—such as global oil price fluctuations, debt servicing costs, and import dependency—still exert pressure on the shilling. However, the government’s fiscal consolidation efforts and growing confidence in CBK’s policy independence are mitigating these risks. As of 2025, Kenya’s experience illustrates a pragmatic path toward a more flexible, market-responsive currency regime, positioning it among Africa’s leading reformers in exchange rate liberalization and monetary policy modernization.

2. Ghana

Ghana has made significant strides in establishing a market-determined exchange rate regime in 2024–2025, underpinned by an inflation-targeting framework and broader macroeconomic reforms. According to the IMF 2025 Article IV Consultation Report and the Bank of Ghana (BoG), the Ghanaian cedi (GHS) is now largely driven by market forces, with interventions by the central bank focused on smoothing excessive volatility rather than setting fixed levels. This marks a continuation of the government’s efforts since 2022 to liberalize the foreign exchange market, eliminate multiple exchange rate windows, and promote transparency in FX operations.

The move toward a more flexible cedi has had a stabilizing effect on Ghana’s macroeconomic indicators. By early 2025, the cedi traded within a relatively predictable band against the US dollar, averaging around GHS 12.5–13.0 per USD, compared to the severe depreciation pressures experienced in 2023. Foreign exchange inflows, including exports, remittances, and international project financing, have been crucial in supporting this flexibility. The BoG’s foreign reserves improved to approximately $9.2 billion, providing a buffer that enhances the effectiveness of the floating regime while maintaining investor confidence.

Operationally, Ghana’s inflation-targeting framework complements the floating cedi by anchoring expectations and providing a clear policy signal to markets. The BoG sets a benchmark policy rate to maintain price stability within a target range of 6–10%, while monitoring the pass-through effects of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic prices. The IMF notes that the coordinated approach, floating FX combined with disciplined monetary policy, has improved market credibility, attracted foreign direct investment, and reduced distortions in the allocation of foreign exchange.

Despite these achievements, challenges remain. Ghana faces external vulnerabilities including commodity price volatility, global interest rate pressures, and debt service obligations that can transmit to the cedi. Nevertheless, the government’s fiscal consolidation measures, structural reforms, and the BoG’s policy credibility support the continued functioning of a market-driven currency regime. As of 2025, Ghana is positioned as one of Africa’s leading examples of a freer, flexible exchange rate system, demonstrating that disciplined monetary policy and market-oriented FX reforms can coexist to support economic stability and growth.

1. Egypt

Egypt’s currency policy in 2024–2025 reflects a decisive shift toward a market-determined floating exchange rate, driven by comprehensive economic reforms and IMF program conditionalities. According to the IMF Article IV Consultation Report, the Egyptian pound (EGP) is now largely allowed to find its level based on market forces, after years of managed pegs and multiple exchange rate windows. The float was accompanied by a significant depreciation in 2022–2023, aimed at addressing foreign exchange shortages, boosting exports, and restoring competitiveness. Today, interventions by the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) are limited to smoothing excessive volatility rather than determining the rate, marking a clear move toward a flexible, market-responsive framework.

The impact of this transition has been significant for Egypt’s macroeconomic stability. By early 2025, the pound traded in the EGP 31–33 per USD range, reflecting more realistic pricing aligned with market fundamentals. This flexibility has helped improve the allocation of foreign currency, reduce distortions in the economy, and attract new inflows of foreign direct investment. Egypt’s foreign reserves, which were under pressure during the pre-reform period, stabilized at approximately $43 billion, providing the CBE with a buffer to manage liquidity while maintaining the float. Analysts note that this enhanced transparency and predictability in the FX market has bolstered confidence among international traders and investors.

Complementing the float, Egypt has implemented broader economic reforms including fiscal consolidation, subsidy rationalization, and inflation-targeted monetary policy. The Central Bank maintains a policy interest rate to anchor inflation expectations, which hovered around 26% in early 2025 due to prior currency adjustments but is projected to gradually moderate as the economy stabilizes. These reforms have enhanced Egypt’s financial credibility, allowed more efficient pricing of goods and services, and facilitated trade and capital flows. Moreover, the liberalized FX environment has been pivotal in supporting Egypt’s export-led growth strategy and foreign investment in key sectors such as energy, manufacturing, and tourism.

Challenges remain, particularly regarding external debt servicing, global commodity price volatility, and inflationary pressures, which can influence the pound’s stability. However, Egypt’s commitment to maintaining a market-oriented floating regime, backed by credible monetary and fiscal institutions, positions it as a benchmark for flexible currency management in Africa. As of 2025, Egypt’s experience demonstrates that a well-managed float, combined with structural reforms and disciplined policy implementation, can support sustainable economic growth, enhance market confidence, and strengthen resilience in the face of external shocks.

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