Crypto Writer
Arslan Butt
Crypto Writer
Arslan Butt
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Ethereum is trading at $3,998, just below the $4,000 mark, after one of the toughest weeks since US spot ETH ETFs launched. Data from SoSoValue shows $800m left in Ethereum ETFs in 5 days, the largest weekly outflow on record. The heaviest selling occurred on Thursday to Friday, when ETH dipped below $4,000.
- Fidelity’s Ethereum Fund: lost $360m
- BlackRock’s ETHA Fund: lost $200m
- Daily exits: $250m+ on consecutive days
Despite institutional selling, Ethereum held up. By Sunday, ETH was back above $4,000. Buyers still see value at these levels. The bounce is not just retail dip buying but long-term investor conviction that Ethereum’s fundamentals (decentralized finance and enterprise adoption) are still intact.
Fear Index Signals Caution but Creates Opportunity
While Ethereum fought back from ETF-driven losses, broader sentiment remains fragile. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index currently stands at 34, a reading that is deep in the “fear” zone. Historically, such pessimism can discourage short-term buying, yet it has also marked attractive entry points for contrarian investors.
Macroeconomic headwinds add to the uncertainty. A stronger U.S. dollar, hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, and renewed volatility across equities all weigh on digital assets.
Still, Ethereum’s ability to stay anchored above $4,000 during heightened stress highlights the psychological importance of this line in the sand.
In effect, ETH’s price action is caught between two forces:
- Negative drag from institutional outflows and global risk aversion
- Positive support from retail demand and contrarian sentiment in fearful markets
This tug-of-war underscores why $4,000 is seen as a “war zone” level for Ethereum in the near term.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Signals
From a technical perspective, Ethereum price prediction remains in a cautious stance. The breakdown from a symmetrical triangle in mid-September confirmed weakness, with support levels tested repeatedly. The 50- and 100-period moving averages now slope downward, reinforcing the bearish bias.
Candlestick formations add nuance. A sequence of long red candles—a pattern resembling “three black crows”—confirmed sustained selling. Recent Doji and small-bodied candles near $3,975 reflect indecision, though long lower shadows hint at attempts to stabilize.
The RSI at 41 has climbed from oversold levels, suggesting room for relief rallies without signaling a decisive reversal.
Key levels to watch include:
- Resistance: $4,167 and $4,290
- Support: $3,853, $3,733, and $3,590
For traders, two scenarios stand out.
Aggressive buyers could position near $3,850–$3,900, targeting a bounce toward $4,167 and $4,290 with stops just below $3,730. A safer approach is waiting for a confirmed daily close above $4,290 to re-enter long positions. Conversely, a decisive breakdown under $3,850 would likely accelerate losses toward $3,590.
For now, Ethereum’s ability to defend $4,000 amid heavy selling speaks to its resilience. If sentiment improves and institutional pressure eases, ETH may yet turn this psychological battleground into the foundation for its next rally.
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