UNCERTAINTY LOOMS
The Shinawatra family are undoubtedly survivors, having prevailed through two military coups and three court rulings that collectively toppled three of their governments and five prime ministers.
It is unclear how the courts will rule, with numerous permutations for what comes next in Thai politics.
The coalition government of Paetongtarn, who is suspended pending the Constitutional Court’s Aug 29 ruling, is sinking in opinion polls, under intense public pressure and hanging onto power by a thread.
The verdicts come at a critical moment for Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy, which is struggling with weak growth, high household debt, slowing tourism and investor concern over policy continuity.
Paetongtarn is accused of violating ethics in a June telephone conversation with former Cambodian leader Hun Sen that was leaked as both countries were on the brink of an armed border conflict, which erupted a month later. A ceasefire is now in place.
Paetongtarn’s predecessor Srettha Thavisin, was dismissed by the same court a year ago, and if she suffers the same fate or resigns, parliament must choose a new premier from a shrinking list of candidates submitted before the 2023 election.
Her Pheu Thai party has only one candidate left, the low-profile former justice minister Chaikasem Nitisiri. But the 76-year-old would need help from Thaksin or Pheu Thai to rally support from a shaky coalition that holds a razor-thin majority.
Other candidates include former interior minister Anutin Charnvirakul, whose party exited the governing coalition in June, and former premier and coup leader Prayuth Chan-o-cha, who quit politics and is now a royal adviser.
The anti-establishment opposition People’s Party, the largest in parliament, has signalled it may back Anutin if he agrees to dissolve parliament this year and seek constitutional reform.
Unfavourable court verdicts would make it harder for seasoned dealmaker Thaksin to keep Pheu Thai in government, but some analysts say he still has backing from a powerful conservative establishment that wants to keep the progressive opposition at bay.
“The conservative camp has chosen Thaksin,” said Olarn Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer at Burapha University.
“Chaikasem would be picked as a short-term prime minister and dissolve parliament when the timing is right.”
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/thaksin-paetongtarn-shinawatra-dynasty-triple-court-test-thai-politics-5306321
