The main opposition party Warisan is the only party that will contest all 73 seats. The party, which is going solo, is strong in the state’s east coast, where Muslim bumiputera voters reside.
If Warisan manages to win in Sabah’s Chinese-dominated urban seats, constituencies generally considered a stronghold for GRS-PH, it could form the government with former GRS and PH component parties, another analyst told CNA.
The latter refers to parties like Parti Solidariti Tanah Airku (STAR) and the United Progressive Kinabalu Organisation (UPKO), which have good support in the non-Muslim bumiputera-dominated interior seats.
“If you read around, the consensus is that Warisan is projected to once again win the most number of seats, but perhaps not enough to clinch an outright majority,” said Oh.
“BN is bidding its time to win as many seats as possible and become kingmakers.”
Chin from the University of Tasmania said peninsula-based coalitions like PH and BN are “throwing in a lot of resources” for the election because they think that a change of government is “highly possible” this time.
“Each of these groups wants as many candidates as possible, because they know that whoever ends up with the largest number of candidates after the election will probably have a much easier time forming a post-election government,” he added.
4. INDEPENDENTS
Likewise, the record number of independent candidates shows “people think that GRS is weak and can be overthrown”, Chin said.
The independent movement could also reflect a higher level of democracy and the “pivotal” role of the candidate, Welsh said, citing how their social and political standing – including family size, family ties and personality – are factors that can win votes in Sabah.
Kudat federal member of parliament Verdon Bahanda, who is leading the Black Wave Movement, said independents who win will act as a check and balance group in the government, and not simply be in the opposition bloc.
“We want government policies that need to be improved to be done during the administration, not after the end of the term. So, only we can do this because we are not tied to anyone,” he was quoted as saying in a Nov 13 Bernama report.
5. KEY ISSUES
On Nov 12, a Kedah state assemblyman from Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) said that winning over the people of Sabah was “as simple as giving them Gardenia bread”.
East Malaysians who visit the peninsula are known to buy Gardenia bread in bulk to bring home because the brand is not readily available in Borneo. The Gardenia variety that can be found there reportedly costs more and does not taste as good.
But the PAS assemblyman’s remark was widely deemed insulting and in poor taste, attracting criticism from Sabahans and their politicians for what appeared to be another example of how peninsula-based parties mistreat Sabah.
While the assemblyman eventually apologised for his remark, it seems to have further dented PAS’ slim chances of winning in any of the five seats it will contest in the fiercely multi-religious state, as online memes mocking the Gardenia faux pas surfaced through nomination day.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-sabah-election-grs-ph-things-watch-5474446
