Editor’s note: The Athletic 134 is a weekly ranking of all FBS college football teams.
Ahead of the first College Football Playoff rankings of the 12-team era, there is no shortage of questions about how the selection committee’s first projected bracket will look. But one piece of conventional wisdom involving the Group of 5 could be upended by Boise State.
The Power 4 conference champions are not guaranteed the four first-round byes, and the Group of 5’s auto-bid reserved for the highest-ranked champion from those leagues is not guaranteed the No. 12 seed, even if most projections have defaulted to that. A 12-1 Mountain West champion Boise State could land higher than 12 and could earn the No. 4 seed, depending on who wins the Big 12.
After a week that saw a lot of ranked teams fall, Boise State is up to No. 12 in this week’s edition of The Athletic 134. That’s not a No. 12 seed as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champ. That’s No. 12 overall.
Boise State deserves a real look, and I’m curious what the committee will do. Historically, the committee has put G5 teams lower in their rankings than in the polls, often because they lack Top 25 wins. But the Broncos’ situation is different. They have a 45-24 win against a Washington State team that is ranked in both polls (and No. 21 here) and a win against a UNLV team that is receiving votes. Boise State’s lone loss was to Oregon on a field goal as time expired. That’s the best loss of anyone in the country.
The Broncos aren’t just the Ashton Jeanty show. Teams have loaded the box in the past two weeks to stop their Heisman Trophy candidate running back, but quarterback Maddux Madsen completed 24 of 32 passes for 307 yards and four touchdowns against San Diego State. The Boise State defense leads the nation in sacks per game.
If BYU, the Big 12’s last remaining unbeaten team, loses a game or doesn’t win the conference, Boise State could realistically finish ahead of the Big 12 champion and get what would likely be the No. 4 seed. Or, at least, that seems possible. We’ll see what the committee thinks on Tuesday.
Here is this week’s edition of The Athletic 134.
GO DEEPER
Mandel’s Final Thoughts: Amid great change, Penn State losing to Ohio State stays the same
1-10
Ohio State’s win at Penn State sees the Buckeyes jump up to No. 3, ahead of Miami, because the Buckeyes’ best win is much better than the Canes’ and they were one play away in their loss to No. 1 Oregon. The only top-40 teams Miami has played are No. 22 Louisville and No. 39 Duke.
Penn State slides to No. 8 with its loss. The Nittany Lions and No. 7 Tennessee are separated by a razor-thin margin. The Vols have a much better win (Alabama) and a much worse loss (Arkansas). Penn State played close with USC and Wisconsin, while Tennessee played close with Florida, Oklahoma and Kentucky. Ultimately, I go with the better win, and it’s Tennessee by a hair.
GO DEEPER
PSU remains Ohio State’s great panacea, and Ryan Day can breathe again
11-25
SMU moves up from No. 19 to No. 11 after a 48-25 demolition of Pitt that was only that close because of some garbage-time scores. The Mustangs are 8-1 with wins against currently ranked Pitt and Louisville teams, and the one loss was a three-point defeat to undefeated BYU while SMU was in the middle of a quarterback change. The Mustangs control their destiny to the ACC title game and CFP. Don’t sleep on them.
Texas A&M drops to No. 14 after a 44-20 loss to South Carolina but stays ahead of LSU because of last week’s win against the Tigers, and LSU stays ahead of No. 16 Ole Miss because of their head-to-head result. An Ole Miss win against Georgia this week could shake things up, while the LSU-Alabama winner might see themselves jump into an at-large spot.
Similarly, Kansas State only falls to No. 18 after its loss to Houston because of its win against Colorado. And Clemson barely holds on at No. 25 after its home loss to Louisville. The Tigers dominated opponents between their two multi-score losses to Georgia and Louisville, but there is no win on Clemson’s resume that says it should be any higher.
GO DEEPER
Week 10’s College Football Playoff lessons: Big 12 shakeups and SEC trap games
26-50
No. 26 South Carolina has a weird resume. It beat Texas A&M and almost beat Alabama, but also got blown out by Ole Miss and needed a late comeback to defeat Old Dominion. Army continues to inch toward the top 25 after a win against Air Force. The Black Knights still haven’t trailed all season, but they have not yet played a team with a winning record. Their next two games, against North Texas and Notre Dame, will change that.
Texas Tech jumps to No. 31 after its win at previously undefeated Iowa State, and Arizona State getting to 6-2 also helps the Red Raiders thanks to their win over the Sun Devils. Minnesota looks much improved and is up to No. 36 after beating Illinois, but the Gophers stay behind Michigan due to the head-to-head result.
Louisiana isn’t getting much CFP talk, but the Cajuns are now 7-1 after winning at Texas State. Keep an eye on them in the Sun Belt. Navy and Memphis plummet to Nos. 40 and 41 after bad losses to Rice and UTSA, respectively. Baylor moves up from No. 69 to No. 44 after a walk-off win against TCU, giving the Bears three consecutive wins.
GO DEEPER
AP Top 25: Oregon unanimous No. 1 ahead of first CFP rankings
51-75
Florida only drops to No. 51 after battling Georgia into the fourth quarter with a third-string quarterback, but the injury to DJ Lagway does not bode well for the final stretch. USC falls to No. 57 after a fifth one-score loss, this time to Washington. There’s no trophy for “best 4-5 team,” but USC or Michigan State is probably it.
Houston, which was one of the lowest-ranked Power 4 teams at one point, is up to No. 64 after a comeback win against Kansas State. Willie Fritz is doing what he does, and a bowl game is not out of the question. UConn is bowl-eligible after beating Georgia State and could get to eight or nine wins.
GO DEEPER
Can Florida fairly evaluate Billy Napier with DJ Lagway injured?
76-100
UCLA, winner of two in a row, bumps up to No. 76, while Oklahoma State has lost six straight after a 3-0 start and tumbles down to No. 79. Arizona, losers of five straight, is down to No. 80. ULM’s second consecutive loss, this time to Marshall, sees the Warhawks drop to No. 76. Fresno State drops to No. 77 after a home loss to Hawaii.
Jacksonville State climbs to No. 82 after beating Liberty, while Colorado State is up to No. 83 thanks to four consecutive wins. Mississippi State’s win against UMass keeps it in the top 100, barely.
101-134
No. 102 Florida State and No. 103 Purdue are the first Power 4 teams to fall out of the top 100 this year. What left is there to say about the Seminoles after a 35-11 loss to North Carolina to drop to 1-8 and finish at 1-7 in ACC play? No. 105 Rice and No. 106 UTSA slide up after their wins against Navy and Memphis, respectively.
Troy got a big win against Coastal Carolina to move up to No. 121, while No. 122 Wyoming bounced back with a win against New Mexico in a 49-45 shootout. Kent State, the season’s last winless team, was off this week but plays Ohio on Wednesday as November MACtion begins.
The Athletic 134 series is part of a partnership with Allstate. The Athletic maintains full editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo: Loren Orr / Getty Images)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5896558/2024/11/04/college-football-fbs-team-rankings-cfp/
