Blockchain prediction market Polymarket is preparing a return to the United States as it eyes a potential $10 billion valuation, according to a Friday report by Business Insider.
Key Takeaways:
- Polymarket is planning a U.S. return and seeking a valuation of up to $10 billion.
- The platform gained traction after accurately predicting Trump’s 2024 victory but faced regulatory setbacks.
- With CFTC clearance and rising competition from Kalshi, Polymarket is re-entering a heated prediction market race.
The company is reportedly in discussions to raise new capital that could more than triple its last known valuation of $1 billion in June.
Polymarket allows users to trade outcomes of real-world events without relying on a centralized bookmaker.
Polymarket Gained Spotlight After Correctly Predicting Trump’s 2024 Victory
Polymarket rose to prominence during the 2024 U.S. presidential election, where its markets accurately predicted Donald Trump’s victory, boosting its reputation and user base.
In June, the firm was raising $200 million in a round led by Peter Thiel’s Founders Fund. But its growth was previously limited by regulatory constraints.
In 2022, Polymarket was forced to exit the US following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
That changed in July when Polymarket acquired Florida-based derivatives exchange QCX. Last month, QCX received a no-action letter from the CFTC, offering relief from certain regulatory requirements.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan said the letter effectively “gives the platform the green light to go live in the USA.”
The move signals a new chapter in the increasingly competitive prediction market space. Rival platform Kalshi is also making headlines, reportedly closing in on a $5 billion funding round after securing $185 million earlier this year in a Paradigm-led raise.
Kalshi’s momentum accelerated after a 2024 court decision allowed it to offer political-event contracts, a ruling the CFTC initially contested but later dropped.
The decision left Kalshi free to operate within the existing framework, giving it a regulatory advantage.
While both platforms have seen user activity decline since the 2024 election cycle, interest appears to be picking up.
The kickoff of the NFL season has reignited market engagement, with Kalshi processing $441 million in trading volume since Week 1.
Kalshi Sues Nevada and New Jersey Over Sports Contract Ban
In March, Kalshi filed a lawsuit against the Nevada Gaming Control Board and the New Jersey Division of Gaming Enforcement, challenging recent cease-and-desist orders that forced the firm to suspend its sports-related contracts in both states.
Kalshi argues that its contracts fall under the regulatory domain of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), not state-level gaming regulators.
The company maintains that its event contracts function as two-sided swap markets, unlike traditional sports betting models where the house sets and controls the odds.
“Prediction markets are a critical innovation of the 21st century, and like all innovations, they are initially misunderstood,” said Kalshi co-founder Tarek Mansour.
“We are proud to be the company that has pioneered this technology and stand ready to defend it once again in a court of law.”
The legal dispute also comes on the heels of additional regulatory pressure from Nevada, where officials issued a cease-and-desist order over Kalshi’s election-based contracts.
Recently, the CFTC announced that it is reviewing Super Bowl-related prediction contracts offered by Crypto.com and Kalshi Inc. to determine if they comply with federal derivatives laws.
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