Nuclear warning as Local business teams warn AUKUS will deepen WA’s labour scarcity | USAEMALL.com

Local industry groups are warning that labour and skills shortages are a serious risk to WA’s energy and AUKUS ambitions, as a retired British Admiral predicted trouble ahead for the submarine fleet.

Rear Admiral Philip Mathias said the UK did not have the capacity to deliver the SSN-AUKUS and there was a high probability the program would fail.

He said the politicians and advisers who signed up to it did not appreciate current capacity constraints.

“Policy and money don’t build nuclear submarines — people do that, and there are not enough of them with the right level of skills and experience,” Mr Mathias said.

“Whilst the US may sell some SSNs to Australia, there is a high probability that the UK element of AUKUS will fail, making the international row in 2021 over the cancellation of the plan for Australia to build French-designed submarines look like a non-event.

“It is clear that Australia has shown a great deal of naivety and did not conduct sufficient due diligence on the parlous state of the UK’s nuclear submarine program before signing up to AUKUS — and parting with billions of dollars, which it has already started to do.”

WA is depending on AUKUS to justify a huge upgrade of the Henderson defence precinct and to create about 10,000 jobs.

The State Government isn’t worried about a growing number of doubters.

“With about 6000 people currently working in WA’s defence industry, the State is already well on its way to delivering a world-class workforce for nuclear submarine sustainment,” a Government spokesman said on Monday.

But industry leaders are nervous.

The Kwinana Industries Council says 2026 is the year that everything that has been promised must be implemented.

In a pre-Budget submission the Kwinana Industries Council identified common-user infrastructure, electricity transmission upgrades and workforce shortages as critical policy priorities.

“With defence being such a massive project coming into the western trade coast we need to ensure there are sufficient workers available for all industries and that workers are not being poached by new industries from existing operators,” KIC chief executive David Harrison said.

“Labour and skills shortages are no longer a future risk, they are a present and growing constraint on industry.

“Without a coordinated, whole‑of‑system response, we risk major projects being delayed, costs escalating and investment going elsewhere.”

He urged Premier Roger Cook to use new powers, under the State Development Act, to declare the entire Western Trade Coast as WA’s first State Development Area, which would allow the fast-track of road, rail and port upgrades.

And he called for the WA Productivity Commission to be tasked with developing a workforce plan.

Opposition Leader Basil Zempilas’ backed concerns that not enough was happening fast enough.

“This is a huge opportunity for WA and, to be absolutely clear, it’s not one that we can afford or let slip,” he said.

“If we do miss out that would be unforgivable from the Premier and from this State Government — so let’s see them get it done”.

A State Government spokesman confirmed the new State Development Act would be utilised, but did not say when it would happen.

“These laws were designed to help WA secure major new economic diversification opportunities in support of the government’s Made in WA agenda, including becoming the largest naval shipbuilding and maintenance hub in the southern hemisphere,” he said.

“The Western Trade Coast has been the backbone of WA’s economy for more than 60 years and will play a critical role in further developing the State’s defence industries.

“As is the case for all strategic industrial areas, extensive consideration will be given to designating it as a State development area to unlock projects which are a high priority for WA.”

Under AUKUS, Australia hopes to acquire between three and five already-built Virginia-class submarines from the United States early next decade.

After that, the UK and Australia have pledged to co-design and build a brand new class of attack submarine called SSN-AUKUS — in both countries.

AUKUS was agreed by former US President Joe Biden and former British and Australian prime ministers Boris Johnson and Scott Morrison.

Australia has no experience building nuclear-powered submarines.

And the UK’s BAE-Systems, which builds the Royal Navy’s boats, currently takes around a decade or longer to produce an Astute-class submarine — the type that the AUKUS submarine will replace.

Australia has given the United States $1.6 billion as an initial down payment for the promised boats.

Australia has also paid the UK $4.6 billion for Rolls-Royce to expand its site in Derby, where it builds the nuclear reactors which power the boats.

But the UK is under pressure to meet plans to expand its own fleet of seven Astute-class attack boats to 12 AUKUS submarines late next decade.

It set a goal of building a new submarine every 18 months by an undefined time “in the future”.

But these will be entirely for the Royal Navy and not for Australia.

Defence Minister Richard Marles has previously declined to say if Australia will be refunded the money if either or both countries are unable to deliver Australia the submarines.

Mr Mathias said that while there had been plenty of announcements and international visits relating to AUKUS over the last four years, there had been no substantial increases to the industrial base required to deliver on the project.

“Britain’s nuclear submarine fleet is in deep trouble and why it can’t provide Australia with the support it needs,” he said.

He saw little hope of improvement.

“History and current performance indicate that this is highly unlikely. Performance across all aspects of the program continues to get worse in every dimension,” he said.

“Even if in the future the industrial base can provide sufficient operationally available boats, the Royal Navy has an almost insurmountable challenge of recruiting (and more importantly) retaining enough submariners to grow the technical and operational leadership necessary to safely operate these highly complex and multibillion dollar platforms.”

Australia’s former submarines commander, retired Rear Admiral Peter Briggs, has been a sceptic of AUKUS from the day it was announced.

He argues that the United States’ slow production means Australia is unlikely to ever receive the US boats either.

And he backed Mr Mathias’ assessment of the UK’s capacity to deliver.

“It has fallen below critical mass and is struggling to sustain even the single ballistic missile submarine on patrol,” he said.

“There are neither the personnel or the maintenance capacity to operate the five Astutes currently in service — none are at sea, none have been at sea for some months.

“We are pouring scarce defence dollars into two black holes.”

An Australian Submarine Agency spokesperson said that through AUKUS, Australia’s acquisition of conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines would “strengthen Australia as a security partner in the region and enhance our ability to respond to a changing strategic environment”.

“The Government has always been clear that this is an ambitious program, and we acknowledged the challenges involved when the Optimal Pathway was announced in 2023.

“Working closely with our partners, we are meeting key milestones and AUKUS remains full steam ahead.

“We remain confident in the ability of all three nations to work collectively to deliver this program.”