Myanmar launch of Aung San Suu Kyi prime ally spurs small democracy hope | UNW

“BARGAINING CHIPS”

Min Aung Hlaing’s pardon of Win Myint was one of his first acts as civilian president and, on its face, would seem to soften his stance.

But analysts argue it is actually a sign of the unassailed strength of his post-coup leadership.

“Using political prisoners as bargaining chips for Min Aung Hlaing’s political manoeuvring should not be seen as reform or opening, but a measure of confidence in the new regime’s stability,” said independent Myanmar analyst David Mathieson.

When Min Aung Hlaing launched his coup, he made allegations Aung San Suu Kyi’s landslide majority of MPs had won their seats through massive voter fraud in 2020 polls.

The putsch triggered a civil war, and after five years of ruling by diktat Min Aung Hlaing oversaw a re-run of the vote – barred from rebel-held territory, excluding Aung San Suu Kyi’s party and punishing criticism of the poll with prison time.

In January it delivered a walkover win for the military’s allies in civilian politics, who backed Min Aung Hlaing to serve as president in a transition democracy watchdogs have derided as a rebranding of military rule.

For analyst Mathieson, Win Myint’s release is just another part of that “authoritarian theatre”.

“This isn’t a genuine amnesty, it’s character laundering,” he said.

IISS fellow Michaels said forgiveness orders are a key survivalist strategy for the leadership as it makes a bid to recover from its post-coup pariah status in some quarters.

“Min Aung Hlaing’s decision to release President Win Myint is part of a conflict management strategy designed to reduce domestic and international pressure,” he said.

The military leadership “has a long history of offering limited concession or compromise when the costs of its draconian rule and violent repression become prohibitive to institutional objectives”, he added.