Labor has taken a slim lead over the coalition in a weekly survey ahead of a federal election expected in May.
The Roy Morgan poll puts Labor on 51.5 per cent to the coalition’s 48.5 per cent on a two-party-preferred basis, with a two-point rise in support for the government and a two-point dip for the opposition flipping the prior week’s result.
A Roy Morgan survey issued in the last week of February had also had Labor leading the coalition, 51 per cent to 49 per cent.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said on Friday he would not pick April 12 as election day and that the federal budget scheduled for March 25 will go ahead.
Other Saturdays later in April have been ruled out for an election due to the Easter and Anzac Day long weekends.
While the election must be held by May 17, the next most likely date is May 3.
The Roy Morgan poll released on Tuesday said backing for the coalition on primary votes was down three points to 37 per cent while Labor’s support was up 1.5 points to 30 per cent.
One Nation gained one point to five per cent and support for the minor parties category increased 0.4 points to four per cent.
There was no change in support for the Greens, at 13.5 per cent, and independent candidates at 10.5 per cent.
Roy Morgan CEO Michele Levine said a boost in support for Labor in four states gave the party an edge.
“This week there were significant swings to the Albanese government in Queensland, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania that drove the overall result in favour of the ALP,” Ms Levine said.
The Roy Morgan 51.5 per cent-48.5 per cent poll result would leave the election winner needing the support of minor parties and independents to form a government.
On Sunday, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton suggested a minority Labor government would fuel inflation through increased taxation and spending.
Mr Albanese replied that inflation was going down: “When we were elected, interest rates had started to rise, now they’ve started to fall.”
The Roy Morgan survey of 1719 voters was conducted on March 3-9.
A YouGov poll released on Friday had Labor ahead of the coalition for the first time in eight months on a two-party-preferred basis, at 51 per cent to 49 per cent.
Labor had not been ahead in a YouGov survey since July 2024.
https://thewest.com.au/politics/labor-edges-ahead-of-coalition-in-roy-morgan-poll-c-18008203
