Next year will be a big one for WA politicians at both State and Federal levels.
The Bondi attack has changed the political landscape, with the effects of the senseless slaughter of 15 Australians felt in every State and Territory.
And I’m sure WA-based politicians will be involved in big decisions that aim to keep our State and the nation safe, with new laws on the horizon.
But if I was to pick one WA-based politician who might have a massive decision to make in 2026, that person would be Andrew Hastie, the Federal Liberal member for Canning.
Prior to the worst-ever terrorist attack on home soil, the biggest talking point in Australian politics was whether Sussan Ley would still be Liberal leader at the next poll in 2028.
Having replaced Peter Dutton in May — after the Coalition was obliterated at a Federal level — the early indicators are that Ley might not be the Messiah the conservatives were looking for (if, there is, indeed, such a thing).
It is widely speculated in political circles that 2026 will be a defining year for Ley. The Bondi terrorist attack has brought with it another dimension to the future of Ley.
The question now being asked by Australians is, did Anthony Albanese do enough since his election victory to not only safeguard Jewish Australians, but all Australians?
And is Albanese the right person to safeguard Australia against future attacks: or at least as is humanly possible.
In politics, there are moments that change the political landscape forever.
Scott Morrison going on a family holiday in Hawaii when there were fires raging back home was one such moment.
I believe the Bondi massacre is another turning point in Australian politics.
What will be interesting to see is how Ley and the Federal Coalition use a new focus on terror attacks to build the case against Albanese as Prime Minister.
Ley and the Coalition will need to tread carefully — fair-minded Australians won’t buy in to blatant political point scoring.
But I am positive Federal Liberals and Nationals will watch closely to see how Ley deals with the after-effects of this tragedy and whether she can sway public sentiment away from the previously untouchable Albanese.
Enter Andrew Hastie.
Hastie has made it abundantly clear that he wants to be Federal Liberal leader one day.
He has said so a few times.
In terms of leadership ambitions, he has dipped his toe into the water ever so slowly several times in 2025 — putting it out there he wants to be leader, but not committing to a timeframe for when he might launch a full-on assault.
Prior to the Bondi attack, there were two people continually talked about in political circles when speculation arose about who would replace Ley, if polling continued to show she was not connecting with the Australian public.
These were Hastie and Angus Taylor.
Speculation is now rife that there is another contender — Treasurer in the government of Scott Morrison, Josh Frydenberg, who lost his seat of Kooyong at the 2022 Federal election.
Frydenberg’s vocal criticism of Albanese in the wake of the Bondi attack on Jewish Australians has heightened speculation he is seriously considering a political comeback at the 2028 election.
What Hastie will need to consider is this.
If there is a leadership challenge to Ley in 2026, or 2027, does he contest the leadership against Taylor, or does he wait until after the 2028 election?
The problem with waiting to realise his leadership ambitions until after the 2028 poll is Frydenberg may well be in the Federal parliament and would be a serious contender for the leadership during that three-year term.
Does Hastie just talk the talk, or does he walk the walk if Ley is challenged for the leadership in 2026?
As I said, a big decision for Hastie to make.
https://thewest.com.au/opinion/joe-spagnolo-should-andrew-hastie-ley-it-all-on-the-line-c-21121738
