You could have watched Manchester United attain their second FA Cup closing in as many seasons by the leather-based of Haji Wright’s left boot and regarded it a lucky escape that their collapse from 3-0 up towards Championship opposition didn’t deserve.
Erik ten Hag didn’t suppose United obtained fortunate, although. If something, he was at his most impassioned in his post-match press convention when discussing his facet’s misfortune, particularly for Coventry City’s stoppage-time penalty, arguing it was an “absolutely crazy” determination to award a handball towards Aaron Wan-Bissaka.
Ten Hag took a lot the identical line of argument earlier than United’s final Premier League outing towards Bournemouth. While accepting that “like a minister” he’ll bear final accountability for outcomes, he couldn’t assist however bemoan his facet’s unhealthy luck over the previous eight months.
“It’s huge. A lot went against us this season,” he mentioned. And although United’s misfortune isn’t restricted to refereeing calls in Ten Hag’s thoughts, that was the place he educated his focus.
“You see all the penalties we conceded last week (against Chelsea and Liverpool) could also have been going in another way. You think over the course of a season sometimes you will get one, sometimes you will concede one. This season it feels like we only concede.”
United have been awarded 5 penalties this season and have conceded 11, with 4 given away within the opening 4 video games of the Champions League group stage. While most of these in Europe weren’t particularly contentious, lots of the six conceded within the Premier League have sparked debate.
Some have been delicate — Rasmus Hojlund and Casemiro’s concessions towards Manchester City and Wolverhampton Wanderers specifically — and others extra debatable. None, it ought to be famous, have resulted within the officers accountable being stood down for the next spherical of fixtures, as occurred after Wolves have been denied a penalty at Old Trafford on the opening weekend of the season.
All these choices, nevertheless, are a matter of opinion. Outside of offside, most refereeing calls are subjective by nature and, because the period of VAR has taught us, there are completely different definitions of what constitutes a transparent and apparent mistake.
Ten Hag has extra substantive grounds for grievance on arguably the largest single cause for United’s struggles: participant accidents and enforced absences. The revolving door of United’s remedy room has seen all however 4 senior squad members — Bruno Fernandes, Andre Onana, Diogo Dalot and Alejandro Garnacho — move by it sooner or later this yr.
The 2-2 draw at Bournemouth was the primary time United have named an unchanged line-up because the opening two video games of a season ravaged by harm. According to information from transfermarkt, United’s squad have collectively spent 1,710 days sidelined because the begin of the season.
Ten Hag mentioned final week he has not been capable of decide his “favourite” line-up because the 2-1 victory over Manchester City at Old Trafford in January of final yr. Just as United’s accidents have appeared to abate, new considerations have cropped up.
Fresh issues for Willy Kambwala, Mason Mount and Sofyan Amrabat meant United’s absentee record swelled into double figures once more forward of the semi-final, whereas Marcus Rashford and Scott McTominay each seemed to be carrying points when substituted at Wembley.
Marcus Rashford walks off after being injured at Wembley (Glyn Kirk/AFP by way of Getty Images)
The absence of both of his first-choice left-backs for almost all of the season has, Ten Hag feels, had a cloth impact on United’s potential to play the way in which he desires. Lisandro Martinez’s unavailability has disadvantaged him of a participant who had a transformative impact throughout his first yr in Manchester.
But is all of it all the way down to luck or may sure issues be completed in a different way? United have set to work restructuring the medical division because the appointment of head of sports activities medication Gary O’Driscoll. Sources, who requested to stay nameless to guard their relationships, imagine there have been noticeable enhancements because the former Arsenal membership physician’s arrival and that restructuring continues apace.
Ten Hag’s coaching strategies have additionally come below scrutiny and could be intense, significantly for these not concerned in matches, who’re put by rigorous classes the day after video games to keep up a constant degree of bodily load throughout the squad. The quick, direct and sometimes chaotic type of play that has been adopted this season additionally must be thought of as a part of that equation.
And when wanting on the performances that type of play has produced on a statistical degree, United have arguably had their justifiable share of fine fortune to stability out the unhealthy.
Everybody is aware of by now that United face numerous photographs on objective — 574 in complete within the Premier League this season. No top-flight group has confronted as many on a per-game foundation, however within the context of latest historical past, that determine solely turns into all of the extra outstanding.
Since 2016-17, eight of the 15 top-flight sides to have confronted extra photographs than United have been relegated. None have completed increased than fifteenth. At the present price, United will surpass all of these 15 sides and but even within the absolute worst-case state of affairs, they can not end any decrease than 14th.
Ten Hag has defended United’s obvious willingness to surrender photographs by arguing they’re predominantly low-quality possibilities and he has some extent. The common shot United have confronted within the league this season has had a ten per cent probability of leading to a objective.
Andre Onana has been busy this season (Clive Brunskill/Getty Images)
Brentford and Newcastle have the worst file in that regard, with the common shot having a 13 per cent probability of being scored. The distinction between a 13 per cent and 10 per cent probability is small however vital. A marginal acquire, in case you like.
But in case you concede at the very least 20 photographs a recreation, as United have repeatedly been doing of late, and one in each 10 goes in, you’ll want to attain three to win. The eighth-worst assault within the league, with solely 47 objectives in 32 league video games, can not rely on that.
United’s 47 objectives is degree with Luton Town and consistent with anticipated information, too. Defensively, Ten Hag’s facet have conceded 48 objectives — one of many Premier League’s higher data — however from an anticipated complete of 59.8.
Take one away from the opposite and United’s anticipated objective distinction is -12.2, the fifth-worst within the league. Suddenly, that precise objective distinction of -1 doesn’t look so unhealthy in spite of everything.
But nothing can change perceptions and narratives round a facet like a beneficial run of fixtures, within the quick time period at the very least, and United now face the Premier League’s backside two at Old Trafford within the area of 4 days.
It mustn’t want saying, however United are a greater facet than each Sheffield United and Burnley by any complete measure. They mustn’t have to get fortunate to show it.
(Top photograph: Glyn Kirk/AFP by way of Getty Images)
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