US-SOUTH KOREAN ALLIANCE
Mr Lee’s foreign policy instincts portend a major alliance crisis.
If disputes between the US and China escalate into a war, there would be disastrous consequences. The US would expect all its allies to help. Those who do not would immediately lose their American security guarantee, mostly importantly the US nuclear umbrella.
If South were to defect on the US alliance in such a time of need, the US would withdraw its forces immediately, and South Korea would be left alone.
South Korea has the wealth to defend itself alone, but the costs would be enormous. The US provides a lot of logistical and intelligence support to the South now, which would be very costly to replace. South Korea today spends about 2.7 per cent of GDP on defence. Post-US alliance, that number would double or even triple, including the likely development of nuclear weapons.
The progressive answer is that such a build-up would be unnecessary, because a neutral South Korea could strike deals with North Korea and China. Mr Moon, for example, proposed Korean unification by 2045, which would obviate the North Korea problem altogether.
This is a solution, but a hazardous one. China appears to have regional hegemonic aspirations, and North Korea did not respond to the three previous rounds of sunshine. There is no obvious reason to think it will respond better this time.
South Korean public opinion is deeply wary of both countries and generally pro-American. Mr Lee’s foreign policy instincts seem likely to worsen domestic polarisation and alliance tensions.
Robert Kelly (@Robert_E_Kelly) is a professor of political science at Pusan National University.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/south-korea-election-martial-law-yoon-impeach-lee-jae-myung-china-us-5059671
