TIMOR-LESTE WILL NOT ASSIMILATE QUICKLY
This early quarrel sends one clear message: Timor-Leste may be in ASEAN, but its leadership will not quickly assimilate the political culture of the group. Smaller ASEAN countries – and it’s worth recapping just how small Timor-Leste is, with a population of just 1.4 million – have tended to align themselves with consensus positions in the group. But not so Timor-Leste.
It’s hard to predict how these clashing political cultures will play out, but it’s unlikely to permeate most issues on the ASEAN agenda. According to reports, Timor-Leste has not participated in South China Sea Code of Conduct talks in 2026, suggesting it is likely only on issues prioritised by Dili’s political leadership that the country will take a prominent role.
In practical terms, Timor-Leste is expected to struggle to service the volume of ASEAN meetings and processes, meaning that its foreign ministry will need to be selective about the issues it chooses to take on.
On the other hand, observers who would like ASEAN to change – to be more forthright, more supportive of democracy and human rights, and less deferential to process and diplomatic customs – might hope that Dili’s accession will shake the group up.
Susannah Patton is Deputy Research Director at the Lowy Institute. This commentary first appeared on the Lowy Institute’s site, The Interpreter.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/timor-leste-asean-myanmar-crisis-legal-case-war-crime-5949281
