Commentary: China’s muted response to the Iran warfare speaks volumes | UNW

REASONS FOR CHINA’S MUTED RESPONSE

There are at least two reasons for Beijing’s relative reticence.

First, China’s national interests, while strained, are not severely threatened or damaged. China’s foreign ministry has confirmed that Chinese vessels have safely sailed through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains a critical flashpoint for global energy transit. As Iran’s primary economic patron, China can likely contain direct damage to its oil supplies.

What is more, China spent 2025 stockpiling significant oil reserves. According to energy intelligence firm Vortexa, “China’s onshore crude inventories… [reached] a record 1.13 billion barrels” by late 2025. Estimates suggest these reserves could last the domestic market for six to 12 months.

Additionally, electrification already accounts for 30 per cent of its energy consumption. More significantly, this grid is almost completely decoupled from oil – with coal and renewable energy effectively powering the grid entirely. In short, China’s energy security is not critically threatened in the short to intermediate range even as it is keeping a watchful eye on the ripple effects of rising oil prices.

In fact, Beijing’s anxiety has shifted from the strikes on Iran to Iran’s retaliatory attacks on the Gulf states. In a rare rebuke on Mar 11, China said it “does not agree” with Iran’s attacks on Gulf nations and condemned all strikes on non-military targets. This is unsurprising given Beijing’s lopsided economic stakes, including infrastructure, energy and trade investments in the Middle East region outside Iran that are threatened by ongoing insecurity.

The disparity is stark: According to the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, in 2025, China’s total trading volume with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates was around US$108 billion each, while the total trading volume was only around US$10 billion with Iran. In short, China is acting pragmatically, privileging longer-term, higher-stakes interests in the region.