OVERTAKE AMERICA AS SOON AS 2027?
Patent data offers an initial glimpse of who will likely come out on top. A surge of filings in China suggests Beijing’s push to be a global leader is beginning to bear fruit. The US is still ahead, but a recent LexisNexis analysis of the strength of both countries’ quantum computing patent portfolios forecasts China could overtake America as soon as 2027.
Examining hard-to-fudge patent data has been a key in the earliest foreshadowing of future trends, Marco Richter, the director of IP analytics and strategy at LexisNexis, told me.
“The technology shift that we’ve seen in patents in electric vehicles many years ago has already taken shape,” Richter explained. By applying the same logic to the dynamics observed in quantum computing now, “we can only imagine that we are on a similar path where Chinese organisations will play a very important role in these technologies in just a few years’ time,” he adds.
The analysis goes beyond raw tallying, weighing for global reach, relevance and impact by looking at other factors, such as how often patents are cited in new research. A key takeaway is that the old narrative of US titans like IBM, Alphabet’s Google and Microsoft battling each other is outdated. China isn’t just catching up, it’s generating new champions.
Beijing’s commitment explains why. It has poured US$15.3 billion in public funds for investments in quantum computing, more than eight times the US$1.9 billion the US has pledged.
America’s fragile position at the top hasn’t gone unnoticed. Earlier this year, Microsoft president Brad Smith warned that “we cannot afford to rule out the possibility of a strategic surprise or that China may already be at parity with the United States”. He urged in a blog post for the US and allies to double down on a coordinated national strategy.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/us-china-tech-war-quantum-technology-ai-stem-5422646
