THE 2028 PRESIDENTIAL RACE
The outcome of the elections in the Philippines next week will no doubt have short- and medium-term implications for the country’s politics.
First, if all nine of the Senate candidates backed by the Marcos administration win, they would expand his bloc of supporters in the chamber. This bloc may then vote to convict Sara Duterte when her impeachment case moves to a Senate trial.
If she’s convicted, she would be banned from running for president in 2028. But it’s uncertain if two-thirds of senators would vote to convict – the threshold necessary for impeachment. Some pro-Marcos and independent senators may be wary of antagonising loyal Duterte supporters.
If Sara Duterte is acquitted, this would likely only boost her bid for the presidency.
The ICC’s pre-trial chamber will hold a hearing in September that will be watched closely by pro- and anti-Duterte forces in the Philippines. On May 8, the chamber rejected a petition filed by Duterte’s defence team to excuse two judges over alleged bias.
His loyal supporters will likely increase their attacks against the ICC, the victims of Duterte’s drugs war, and the Marcos administration through the use of fake news and disinformation as the trial progresses.
If Duterte is convicted by the court prior to the 2028 election, it will certainly be used as a campaign issue by both sides, too. And this will only further worsen polarisation in the Philippines.
Noel Morada is from Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok, Thailand, where he is visiting professor at Nelson Mandela Centre and research fellow at Asia Pacific Centre for the Responsibility to Protect. This commentary first appeared on The Conversation.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/philippines-election-rodrigo-duterte-arrest-ferdinand-marcos-jr-5119206
