China unveils $A2.1t debt bundle, no direct stimulus | USAEMALL.com

China unveiled a 10 trillion yuan ($A2.10 trillion) debt package on Friday to ease local government financing strains and stabilise flagging economic growth, as it faces fresh pressure from the re-election of Donald Trump as US president.

The measures confirm last week’s Reuters report, and mark a departure from the all-out stimulus strategies to revive growth China has deployed in the past. They aim to repair municipal balance sheets as a medium- to longer-term objective, rather than directly inject money into the economy.

Finance Minister Lan Foan said more stimulus was coming, with some analysts saying Beijing may not want to fire all its weapons before Trump takes over officially in January. For now, those investors who speculated on a fiscal bazooka may be disappointed.

Local governments, facing high debt and falling revenues, have been cutting civil servants’ pay and amassing debts with private sector companies, choking money flows to the real economy and fanning deflationary pressures.

Their strains, stemming from a severe property crisis since 2021 which decimated revenues from residential land auctions to developers – a key source of funds for cities and provinces – had put China’s 2024 growth target of roughly five per cent at risk.

China’s longer-term outlook is further clouded by Trump’s threat of tariffs in excess of 60 per cent on all Chinese goods, which has rattled Chinese manufacturers and accelerated factory relocation to Southeast Asia and other regions.

Exporters say the tariffs will further shrink profits, hurting jobs, investment and growth in the process. They would also exacerbate China’s industrial overcapacity and the deflationary pressures it fuels, analysts said.

The package, unveiled at the end of a week-long parliament meeting, included raising the local governments’ debt quota by six trillion yuan over the next three years, with the new funds to be used to repay “hidden debts”. It also gave municipalities the greenlight to use for the same purpose another four trillion over five years in issuance that Beijing had already approved.

Beijing uses “hidden debt” to describe the loans, bonds and shadow credits of local government financing vehicles, or LGFVs.

Lan said those debts stood at 14.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2023, which authorities planned to trim to 2.3 trillion yuan by 2028. The International Monetary Fund, however, estimates debts of LGVFs amounted to 60 trillion yuan at the end of 2023, or 47.6 per cent of GDP.

Swapping hidden for official debt is expected to save 600 billion yuan in interest for local governments over five years.

Carlos Casanova, Asia senior economist at UBP, estimated China needed a debt package of 23 trillion yuan to reduce the inventory of unsold homes and repay maturing LGFV debt.

The measures announced on Friday “are going to disappoint the market because China needs more essentially,” he said.

Lan also reiterated officials will issue policies to support state sector purchases of unsold apartments and reclaim undeveloped residential land from property developers, as well as replenish the capital of big state banks.

He did not give details on the size or timing of those measures, which would represent a much more direct way of injecting fiscal oomph into the economy.

“The lack of direct fiscal stimulus suggests that policymakers would leave policy room for the impact of Trump 2.0 later,” said Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at ANZ.

Also without detailing, Lan said Beijing will “intensify efforts” to support manufacturing equipment upgrades and expand a consumer subsidy scheme that targets purchases of appliances and other goods.