Standard Chartered’s head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick, believes Bitcoin’s path to reaching $500,000 before President Donald Trump leaves office depends on increased long-term investment from state pension funds.
In a research note on Tuesday, Kendrick highlighted that state pension funds currently account for just 1% of Bitcoin ETF holdings. He expects this number to rise as institutional participation expands.
Bitcoin’s rise to $500,000
Analyzing fourth-quarter 13F filings, Kendrick noted that hedge funds continue to dominate Bitcoin investments, with Brevan Howard purchasing the equivalent of 14,500 BTC in Q4.
Banks such as Goldman Sachs also increased their holdings, while sovereign wealth funds, including Abu Dhabi’s state fund, entered the market with a 4,700 BTC-equivalent position in BlackRock’s ETF.
The repeal of SAB 121, which previously restricted banks from holding digital assets, is expected to drive further institutional adoption.
Additionally, Kendrick believes sovereign wealth funds will increase their exposure, spurred by the US government’s growing Bitcoin reserves.
For Bitcoin to reach $500,000, broader institutional participation is necessary, particularly from state pension funds.
Kendrick argues that pension money provides long-term, stable capital, reducing volatility and supporting Bitcoin’s maturation as an institutional asset.
Bitcoin adoption in 2025
Kendrick expects continued Bitcoin accumulation by banks and sovereign wealth funds in Q1 2025.
As the bitcoin market matures, Kendrick anticipates a broader investor base.
He anticipates that easing regulatory constraints and increasing global adoption will aid in this shift.
Initially dominated by retail traders, followed by hedge funds in the early ETF phase, the market is now seeing interest from sovereign entities.
Looking ahead, Kendrick expects state pension funds to enter the space. He also notes that central banks may follow, citing the Czech National Bank’s potential bitcoin allocation of up to 5% of its €140 billion reserves and the Swiss National Bank’s early-stage bitcoin investment considerations.
With improving institutional access and declining volatility, Kendrick foresees more portfolios shifting toward their optimal bitcoin exposure from an underweight position.
With 2024 seeing 499,000 BTC of spot ETF purchases and MicroStrategy accumulating 257,000 BTC, Kendrick predicts even greater institutional demand in 2025.
The entry of state pension funds could mark a turning point, transitioning Bitcoin from an alternative asset to a core component of diversified institutional portfolios.
Bitcoin price today
Bitcoin price continued to struggle on Tuesday. The coin was down around 2% in the past 24 hours to trade at ₹$94,152.43.
Bitcoin’s 24-hour high and low is 96,730 and $94,080.29.
Bitcoin’s price has been range-bound between $94,000 and $100,000 for nearly two weeks, signaling a period of consolidation.
The global crypto market cap has dropped to $3.09 trillion, marking a 2.81% decline in the past 24 hours.
Bitcoin’s market dominance has risen to 60.44%, up 0.79% from the previous day.
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