Bitcoin is currently at $109,086, up 0.50% in the last 24 hours, with a daily trading volume of $43.49 billion. Market cap is $2.17 trillion. Still not a bottom yet according to sentiment indicators.
According to Santiment, mentions of “buy the dip” on social media are surging as Bitcoin approaches key levels. Historically, this means sellers are not done yet. A true bottom is characterized by investor fatigue, capitulation, and no buying interest. We don’t see that yet.
This means Bitcoin could still see some short-term pressure before a sustainable reversal. For traders, this means being cautious as liquidity traps are possible in the next few weeks.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Outlook and Key Levels
Since mid-August, Bitcoin has been in a descending channel and has not broken above the upper boundary, keeping Bitcoin price prediction bearish. On the 2-hour chart, BTC is consolidating at $109,000 after testing the $107,300 support level.
The 50-day SMA is at $110,340, and the 200-day SMA is at $114,136. Resistance to clear for a bullish move.
Momentum is mixed but improving. RSI is at 47 after being oversold. The MACD remains negative, but the histogram is narrowing. Traders are also watching a cluster of spinning top candlesticks at support.
These patterns often precede trend reversals when volume confirms.
First resistance is at $111,350. If that’s cleared, we could see $113,500 and the 200 SMA at $114,136. Above that, and we’re on our way to $115,700. If not, we could see $107,300, then $105,150, and then $103,350.
Medium-Term Forecast and Trade Setup
The current setup is asymmetric. If price breaks out of the channel, momentum can shift quickly, and we could see $130,000 in the medium term. Historically, these consolidation phases have ended in significant rallies, as seen in previous bull cycles.
For traders, a setup involves watching for a breakout above $111,350, accompanied by RSI strength and a MACD crossover. Entry on a confirmed retest could be $113,500 in the short term and $115,700 at the secondary level. If the price breaks down, a stop-loss order below $107,300 could help manage risk if bearish pressure intensifies.
While we should be cautious, the larger Bitcoin cycle remains intact. With supply capped at 21 million BTC and institutions still increasing their interest, this consolidation may not be the end, but rather a staging ground for the next big rally. For long-term investors, this could be the accumulation phase before we hit six figures.
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