Silver prices remained relatively subdued on Friday, heading for yet another significant weekly decline.
Investors are closely watching economic indicators to gain insights into potential US interest rate cuts in September, while also keeping an eye on next week’s inflation data.
Despite recent setbacks, silver has shown some resilience by maintaining support above its 200-day moving average, although traders remain cautious about the potential for further downside movement.
Silver’s trading range: Navigating key support and resistance levels
Last week’s trading activity in silver (XAG/USD) has revealed the development of a trading range, with buyers respecting the 200-day moving average as a key support level at $26.11 and the 50-day moving average acting as resistance at $29.41.
This pattern suggests that silver may continue to trade within a wide range in the near term, as the market awaits more definitive economic signals.
Additional support is found at the 50% retracement level of $27.22, while resistance is encountered at the 50% retracement level of $29.54.
These levels are critical for traders as they indicate where the price may find significant buying or selling pressure.
Fed’s rate decisions: Balancing inflation and market expectations
Federal Reserve policymakers are walking a tightrope as they weigh the cooling inflation against the potential for future rate cuts.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in a 55% probability of a 50-basis-point rate cut in September, with another cut expected in December.
The Fed has emphasized that its decisions will be guided by economic data rather than stock market volatility, placing greater importance on upcoming inflation data.
Next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases will be crucial in shaping the Fed’s policy trajectory.
These indicators will provide further clarity on whether inflation is cooling sufficiently to justify a rate cut, or if the Fed will need to maintain its current stance to control price pressures.
Labour market resilience: A factor in silver’s outlook
Recent US jobless claims data surprised markets by coming in better than expected, alleviating concerns about potential weakness in the labour market.
This resilience in the labour market adds another layer of complexity to the Fed’s decision-making process, as strong employment data could temper the urgency for rate cuts.
For silver, the interplay between economic data and Fed policy is particularly significant.
If the Fed opts for rate cuts, it could lead to a weaker US dollar and lower bond yields, both of which are supportive of higher silver prices.
Conversely, if the Fed maintains its current stance, silver could face further downward pressure.
Silver’s potential: A cautiously optimistic outlook
Despite the current downtrend, the long-term outlook for silver remains cautiously optimistic. The metal is well-positioned to benefit from multiple scenarios, including increased risk aversion or expectations of looser monetary conditions.
Should inflation cool and the Fed proceed with rate cuts, silver could see a resurgence as investors seek safe-haven assets.
Moreover, silver’s dual role as both an industrial and precious metal provides additional support.
In the event of an economic downturn, silver could benefit from its safe-haven status.
Conversely, if the economy remains strong, industrial demand for silver could help drive prices higher.
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