Joe Burrow circa 2019 is not walking through the door of this College Football Playoff. There is no Deshaun Watson nor Trevor Lawrence to be found.
It’s not that there aren’t a bunch of really good quarterbacks in the first 12-team College Football Playoff field. The teams wouldn’t have gotten this far if that were the case. But the lack of a dominant QB or two is a big part of why the Playoff itself seems fairly wide open. Volatility and uncertainty at the most important position on the field inevitably creates unpredictability.
This year’s set of CFP starting quarterbacks includes the most experienced signal caller in the history of college football (Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel); six players who have transferred (Gabriel, Texas’ Quinn Ewers, Arizona State’s Sam Leavitt, Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard, Ohio State’s Will Howard, Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke); four former five-star recruits (Ewers, Penn State’s Drew Allar, Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava, Clemson’s Cade Klubnik); three first-year starters (Iamaleava, SMU’s Kevin Jennings, Boise State’s Maddux Madsen) and one who is expected to make his first career start (Georgia’s Gunner Stockton).
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In trying to rank them (a truly thankless task), we — and by we I mean me — focused solely on the now and which players are most capable of leading a team to a national championship over the next month. What does that mean? Two qualities come to mind: the ability to make an uncanny play, throw or run, at high-leverage moments; and the ability to avoid game-changing mistakes.
Fact is, there is a pretty clear No. 1, and then feel free to line up 2-12 in any order you like.
Here’s mine.
1. Dillon Gabriel, Oregon
Easy choice.
Gabriel’s height (5 foot 11) makes him a less-than-ideal NFL prospect, which has led him to a six-year, three-school college career. But he is not without next-level skills.
“What I appreciate most is his quick trigger,” The Athletic’s Dane Brugler wrote last week, adding he would not be surprised if Gabriel becomes a mid-round pick or better. “Gabriel has a great feel for route timing in relation to coverage, which allows him to eliminate things quickly and fire passes without overthinking.”
The Ducks’ quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl against the Tennessee-Ohio State winner will be Gabriel’s record 63rd college game. He is 795 yards away from breaking the FBS career passing record held by Case Keenum (19,217). Gabriel’s confidence, experience and poise shine through in big games – he’s totaled 867 yards, eight touchdown passes and zero interceptions in three victories against CFP teams this season – and there is no surer thing among the quarterbacks in this Playoff.
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2. Drew Allar, Penn State
Here we go. Let the arguments begin.
Before you even say it, let’s acknowledge this: Allar has not played well in the biggest games he has played during his two seasons as a starter for the Nittany Lions.
The supporting cast, especially at wide receiver, and the play calling have not made life easier on Allar, but you are what your record says you are, and he is 0-5 while completing under 50 percent of his passes against Ohio State (twice), Michigan, Ole Miss and Oregon.
The Big Ten Championship Game earlier this month fairly well sums up Allar. There were plenty of plays where he was a difference maker with his arm, mobility and athleticism. He also completed only 51 percent of his passes and threw two picks.
“He has an elite ability to handle things like a professional at the age of 20 or 21. It’s really pretty uncommon,” offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki said.
I’m getting lured in by the ceiling.
3. Kurtis Rourke, Indiana
The Ohio transfer might have been No. 2 on this list if he were a little more mobile. If you could guarantee Rourke sound protection, nobody, not even Gabriel, is more likely to slice up a defense with his combination of accuracy and quick decision making.
ESPN analyst and former Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy is all-in on Rourke and sees him as a guy who could go on to have a Kirk Cousins-like NFL career. Even when Rourke faces pressure, “It’s NFL-level accuracy,” McElroy said.
Ohio State blew up the Hoosiers’ protection in Indiana’s lone loss, and if that happens again against Notre Dame, there will only be so much Rourke can do. But you’re not going to rattle the sixth-year player.
4. Quinn Ewers, Texas
Four seasons into his college career, everything about Ewers is still distorted by the hype that followed him to college football as the five-est of five-star recruits.
When he’s good, he is the best. When he isn’t, where is Arch Manning?
Here is why this ranking is too low: Ewers has played well in some big games, including last season’s CFP semifinal loss against Washington (318 yards passing) and the 2023 victory at Alabama in which he passed for 349 yards and three touchdowns.
Here is why it’s too high: He’s probably the most likely playoff QB to be benched for his backup.
He has dealt with injuries and hasn’t flashed as much of that this season, but we’ve seen it before.
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5. Will Howard, Ohio State
Everything changed about the Buckeyes when they lost to Michigan, including the assessment of Howard. The fifth-year transfer from Kansas State was a fringe Heisman Trophy candidate before that stunning upset. After throwing two back-breaking interceptions against the Wolverines, he didn’t even crack the top 10 of Heisman voting, and it felt as if coach Ryan Day lost faith in Howard during The Game.
“There’s plays he’ll want back in that game, but one thing about Will is he has a positive mindset and he’s very resilient,” Day said.
Bottom line: Howard is a big, athletic guy who is more than capable of making the most of the Buckeyes’ slew of big-time receivers. He finished the regular season third in the country in passer rating (172.08) and seventh in ESPN’s QBR (83.0), third among playoff quarterbacks behind Gabriel and Rourke.
Howard has been oddly quiet as a runner this season, with only 223 yards on 60 carries, not including sacks. With Ohio State’s offensive line injuries, offensive coordinator Chip Kelly might need to get that part of his game cranked up.
6. Kevin Jennings, SMU
The ultimate wild card.
It took a few games for SMU coach Rhett Lashlee to fully commit to Jennings as his quarterback, but the Mustangs took off when he did.
“When he plays, you can feel that edge he has,” Lashlee said.
A wispy 185 pounds, Jennings is a dangerous runner (he went for 113 yards on the ground at Louisville) and can really sling it. He can also be a little all over the place.
“He’s a gamer,” McElroy said. “I mean, he just makes plays, and that’s really the only way to describe him. The mechanics are far from flawless.”
The Clemson game was a good example of what a ride Jennings can be. He passed for 102 yards with an interception in the first half before leading the Mustangs back from a 24-7 deficit with 202 yards and three TDs in the second half.
Jennings can be the breakout star of the Playoff or a one-and-done in Happy Valley.
7. Riley Leonard, Notre Dame
Leonard started the season slowly and maybe not quite fully healthy. It is fair to say he has improved, but he still doesn’t push the ball downfield much. Notre Dame (once again) doesn’t really have a difference maker on the outside at receiver to support Leonard, but the Irish feel good about his decision making.
“We’ve got to know where the ball is going. We’ve got to get it out of our hand, and we’ve got to be confident in doing that. If we do that, we’re going to be in pretty good shape,” offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock said.
As a runner, Leonard is a weapon. He leads all Playoff quarterbacks with 721 yards and 14 touchdowns on the ground. He is also difficult to sack. Despite his limited production as a passer, Leonard is 13th in QBR at 79.0, three spots ahead of Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders.
The Irish are going to win with their running game. The question is whether they can rely on Leonard to convert a few third-and-longs with throws in key spots. Notre Dame ranks 88th in the country in third-down conversion rate (38.3 percent).
8. Sam Leavitt, Arizona State
Leavitt is the QB spirit animal of teammate Cam Skattebo. The Michigan State transfer has thrown 24 touchdown passes and only five interceptions, and he’s not going to shy away from contact.
The former four-star recruit is an intense competitor who comes into the Playoff fresh off his two most efficient games of the season. Against Arizona and in the Big 12 title game against Iowa State, he went a combined 29 for 39 for 500 yards with six touchdown passes and no picks.
“He’s just one of the most conscientious young guys I’ve ever been around, and we’ve been around some pretty smart ones,” said Arizona State offensive coordinator Marcus Arroyo, who coached Justin Herbert at Oregon. “Very conscientious in that regard and trying to find, always, ways to get a little bit better.”
Leavitt might actually be the wild-card potential one-man show that I think Jennings is.
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9. Cade Klubnik, Clemson
Klubink took a definitive step forward in his second season as a starter for the Tigers. Last season: 6.3 yards per attempt, 19 touchdowns, nine interceptions. This season: 7.5, 33 touchdowns, five picks.
“One, he’s got better situational awareness, so that’s helpful,” McElroy said. “Two, I think he’s stronger. A big part of his problems last year, he fumbled it every time he got hit.”
It also should be noted — recurring theme here — Clemson seems to have finally hit on a few receivers this season after an extended slump at that position.
Still, Klubnik runs hot and cold, which means Clemson’s offense does the same. Again, see the ACC Championship Game, when the Tigers averaged 3.9 yards per play in the second half and scored just one touchdown.
Klubnik has become a good player, but it doesn’t seem as though there is another gear here. At least not one that’s going to emerge over the next month.
10. Nico Iamaleava, Tennessee
If you said that Iamaleava would be the first overall pick in the 2026 or ‘27 NFL Draft, I’d believe you. He has all the tools to become that type of player. He just hasn’t been that player often this season. Nor has Tennessee asked him to be, leaning on the SEC’s leading rusher Dylan Sampson.
Still, for Josh Heupel’s offense to operate at a high level, it needs to take deep shots and hit a few of them. That facet of the offense has been inconsistent, but Iamaleava did end the regular season with a four-touchdown game against Vanderbilt.
The potential is high, but asking him to reach it multiple times at the end of his redshirt freshman season seems like a lot. And you can’t win four Playoff games working around your young quarterback.
11. Maddux Madsen, Boise State
Ashton Jeanty is the engine for Boise State, but Madsen has been a nice complement to the nation’s leading rusher and Heisman runner-up. He is a tough and willing runner himself (five touchdowns on the ground this year) and has only thrown three interceptions. Accuracy is an issue, though: He’s had six games in which he completed below 57 percent of his passes.
Teams are going to load up to stop Jeanty and put pressure on Madsen to make some plays. But that’s been the case all season, and Boise State went 12-1. Being able to do it three times against high-quality competition, however, seems like a lot to ask.
12. Gunner Stockton, Georgia
Who really knows?
This ranking is not fair to Stockton, who was a top-10 recruit at his position in the same 2022 recruiting class that had Allar and Klubnik at the top. You’re not on scholarship at Georgia if you can’t play. No doubt, he’d be starting at dozens of other schools, including maybe a few in the Playoff.
“The kid played just tough as nails,” Kirby Smart said after Stockton played hero in the Bulldogs’ dramatic SEC title game victory. “The Florida State (bowl) game is probably the most he’s played. But can’t say enough about his toughness, character, whatever you want to say. The guy is a phenomenal leader.”
Stockton’s mobility gave the Bulldogs a spark against Texas. He was also 12 for 16 passing for 4.4 yards per attempt. It was pretty clear Georgia was playing cautious offense once Carson Beck left with an injury.
That attack might look very different after a couple of weeks of preparation. There is also a possibility that a passing game that was glitchy with Beck at the controls doesn’t get better with the backup quarterback.
Plus, now Georgia’s opponents will have time to prepare for Stockton.
Fact is, Stockton could lead Georgia to a national title with a Cardale Jones-like run, or his inexperience could be a big reason the Bulldogs go one-and-done.
(Top illustration photos: Johnnie Izquierdo, Gregory Shamus / Getty Images)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6007274/2024/12/20/college-football-playoff-quarterback-rankings/
