WA harvest forecast surges to 21 million tonnes as rain continues to fall | USAEMALL.com

WA grain farmers are on track to deliver their fourth harvest exceeding 20 million tonnes since the record was first broken in 2021, an “incredible result” on the back of widespread winter rains.

The latest harvest forecast, released by the Grain Industry Association of WA on August 14, revealed the State’s harvest potential had jumped 2.59Mt from the July estimate of 19.33Mt.

GIWA crop report author Michael Lamond said with an average finish to the season, the State’s wheat production would exceed 10 million tonnes — no mean feat given the area planted to wheat had declined 700,000ha compared to 2024.

Barley production was expected to hit more than 5 million tonnes, and canola 3Mt.

“The three major crops all show real potential to hit recent five-year averages of 11.2 million tonnes for wheat, 5.2 million tonnes for barley and 2.8 million tonnes for canola,” Mr Lamond said.

“It means the potential for 20Mt-plus total grain production for WA is there again… if recent history of water use efficiency is anything to go by and spring conditions remain favourable, crops will easily convert this rainfall to another near-record grain production year.

“It’s an incredible result.”

WA’s oat plantings are up, with a similar forecast of about 700,000t of oats set to be harvested this year, while the State’s farmers are also on track to harvest a “very good” lupin crop in the Geraldton area while planting has declined in the south of the State.

“A slight increase in pulse plantings, particularly lentils and chickpeas, will result in higher tonnages than in recent years… with most growing well and with good grain yield potential,” Mr Lamond said.

Winter rainfall totals have surged in recent weeks, boosting farmers’ confidence after a dry start to winter left some feeling worried in May and June.

The highest rainfall totals have been notched up in the Great Southern and Esperance areas, where some farms have recorded between 400m and 500m of rain.

While few areas have had less than 200mm of rain for the year-to-date, Mr Lamond said there were still pockets of below decide five growing season rainfall in some areas, with an uptick in totals in recent week coming too late for “substantial recovery”.

It was a particularly dry start to the season for farmers near Geraldton, but many farmers’ paddocks have since caught up with what Mr Lamond labelled “excellent establishment” across the Port Zone.

“Year-to-date rainfall in the zone has been about 100mm less than in 2024 to date, although the very even crop development right from the stat and the lack of waterlogging this year could see more grain produced in the zone than 2024,” he said.

Meanwhile, some parts of WA have been too wet — with waterlogging prominent in the west and south coastal parts of the Esperance Port Zone farming areas with soggy paddocks now limiting grain potential.

It’s been an above average season for farmers in the Albany area, with strong moisture profiles, improved varieties and sound agronomic practices — but waterlogging could slash yields by about 20 per cent in some affected areas.

In the eastern portion of the zone around Jerramungup, growers are experiencing the wettest July since 1912.

WA grain farmers made history in 2021 when they harvested a whopping 24Mt of grain, which was at the time a State record after far exceeding the 20Mt total many in the industry had dreamed of one day reaching.

They smashed that record just one year later, with 26.13Mt harvested in 2026, before dry conditions led to a far more tepid crop of 14.5Mt in 2023 before the total picked up above the 20Mt mark again in 2024 at 22.42Mt.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s monthly outlook for September indicates a preference for near-normal rainfall in most cropping areas, while the seasonal outlook for September to November forecasts below normal rain across most of WA.