Top United States officials are holding talks with Ukrainian and European diplomats in Geneva to discuss US President Donald Trump’s peace plan aimed at ending the nearly four-year-old war between Russia and Ukraine.
But the so-called 28-point plan pushed by the Trump administration has alarmed Ukraine and its European allies, who see it as a capitulation to Russian demands, particularly territorial concessions and limits on the size of Ukraine’s military.
Trump had set a November 27 deadline for Ukraine to accept his peace plan, but after pushback from European leaders, Washington appears to have softened its stance, with Trump saying the plan did not represent a “final offer” for Ukraine.
This will likely create some wriggle room for diplomacy at the high-stakes talks in Geneva, Switzerland.
So, why are Ukraine’s European allies opposed to the draft plan? Who’s participating? What’s on the agenda in Geneva? And does the plan favour Moscow?
What’s on the agenda at the US-Ukraine talks in Geneva?
The talks are an attempt to reconcile the contentious draft peace plan, as Kyiv and its European allies want Kyiv’s long-term security interests protected.
Representatives from Ukraine, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and the European Union will join top US officials, including US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, to discuss how to end the war – Europe’s deadliest since World War II. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said there will also be a Russian presence.
The talks, Al Jazeera’s Hashem Ahelbarra said, “could be the most decisive moment for Ukraine”.
“There is a great deal of anxiety among Ukrainians and Europeans about the nature of the 28-plan drafted by the Americans,” said Ahelbarra, reporting from Geneva.
“The concerns are about the territorial concessions: We’re talking about Luhansk, Donetsk and Crimea, which the Ukrainians, as per the plan, have to give up in exchange for the potential of a permanent deal with Russia. They have to freeze the front lines, particularly in Kherson and Zaporizhia.
“The third element is the reduction of the capacity of the Ukrainian armed forces from 900,000 soldiers to 600,000, and this is widely perceived by the Ukrainians as a major concession they cannot afford to make,” Ahelbarra said.
In a post on X on Sunday, Zelenskyy said he hopes “there will be a result”.
“The bloodshed must be stopped, and we must ensure that the war is never reignited,” the Ukrainian leader said. “I am awaiting the results of today’s talks and hope that all participants will be constructive. We all need a positive outcome.”
Who is participating in the talks?
The US’s Rubio and Witkoff are leading the Geneva talks, which will also include US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll.
Nine Ukrainian officials are attending the talks, including Ukraine’s presidential office chief Andriy Yermak and top envoy Rustem Umerov, who have been empowered to deal directly with Russia by the president.
National security advisers from the E3 alliance of France, Britain and Germany will also join the discussions, alongside other officials from the EU, including Italy.
Why are European leaders raising concerns about Trump’s peace plan?
Ukraine’s European allies say the current peace plan does not address Ukraine’s security concerns. They say Russia cannot be rewarded with territory for invading Ukraine.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Sunday that “any credible and sustainable peace plan should first and foremost stop the killing and end the war, while not sowing the seeds for a future conflict”.
She spelled out three elements required for a just and lasting peace, stating that borders should not be changed by force, that there should not be a cap on Ukraine’s military, and that the EU should be central to securing peace for Ukraine.
“Ukraine must have the freedom and sovereign right to choose its own destiny. They have chosen a European destiny,” von der Leyen said.
On the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Johannesburg, South Africa on Saturday, European and other Western leaders pushed back against Trump’s plan, saying it required “additional work”.
“We are ready to engage in order to ensure that a future peace is sustainable. We are clear on the principle that borders must not be changed by force,” said a joint statement signed by the UK, Canada, Finland, France, Spain, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Germany, Norway and the Republic of Ireland.
The statement noted that the allies were “concerned by the proposed limitations on Ukraine’s armed forces, which would leave Ukraine vulnerable to future attack”, adding that any decisions regarding NATO and the EU would require the consent of member states.
Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022 and has since captured large parts of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk region. Moscow had annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014.
According to Trump’s draft plan, Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as de facto Russian territory. Ukrainian forces will be required to withdraw from parts of Donetsk that they currently control, while Kherson and Zaporizhia will be frozen along the line of contact.
The proposed plan would also see Ukraine cut its army and renounce its ambitions to join NATO, which has been a major sticking point in the earlier proposals. The size of the Ukrainian armed forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said that he spoke with Trump in a long phone call on Friday and conveyed that Europe needed to be a part of any peace process.
“An end to the war can only be achieved with the unconditional consent of Ukraine,” Merz said during the G20 summit briefing. “But we are still quite a way from a good outcome for everyone.”
Von der Leyen noted that a key principle for Kyiv’s European allies was “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine”.
Speaking with reporters ahead of the G20 summit, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said, “Time and again, Russia pretends to be serious about peace, but their actions never live up to their words.”
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Saturday that Russia would “betray” its promise and “come back” if there are no elements of deterrence and if Ukraine were to cut its army size and follow Trump’s plan.
In a post on X, Macron welcomed US efforts to bring peace, but said that the current proposal “must be strengthened” and “Ukraine must never be left vulnerable”.
Macron wrote, “Everyone wants peace – except Russia, which continues to stubbornly bomb Ukraine”, adding that support for Ukraine was “decisive”.
EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said: “Russia has no legal right whatsoever to any concessions from the country it invaded.”
But US Vice President JD Vance has rebuked criticism of the peace plan.
“There is a fantasy that if we just give more money, more weapons, or more sanctions, victory is at hand,” the vice president posted on X on Saturday. “Peace won’t be made by failed diplomats or politicians living in a fantasy land. It might be made by smart people living in the real world.”
What has Ukraine’s Zelenskyy said about the plan?
Zelenskyy said that Ukraine was trying to defend its sovereignty while retaining the support of its most important ally, the United States. Trump had said Zelenskyy can “fight his little heart out” if he rejected the proposal.
“Now is one of the most difficult moments of our history. Now, the pressure on Ukraine is one of the heaviest. Now, Ukraine can face a very difficult choice — either losing dignity or risk losing a major partner,” Zelenskky said.
In a 10-minute speech outside the presidential palace, Zelenskyy said that if his country follows through on the proposed plan, it would leave Kyiv “without freedom, dignity and justice”.
Accepting the plan, which has been widely viewed as favouring Moscow, would also mean believing “someone who has already attacked us twice”, said Zelenskyy.
“I will present arguments, I will persuade, I will propose alternatives,” said the Ukrainian president. He then referred to the Russian invasion in February 2022, saying: “We did not betray Ukraine then, we will not do so now.”
On Sunday, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine’s focus at the talks is “on working as constructively as possible on the steps proposed by the United States”.
“We are working to ensure that the path toward ending the war is real and that the principled elements are put into action,” he said after a call with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney.
Does Trump’s peace plan favour Moscow?
European leaders are concerned that Trump’s proposal heavily favours Russia, which has been seeking to control all of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Moscow currently holds parts of that territory, though it has been slowly gaining more ground on the battlefronts.
A group of US senators said on Saturday that they were told by Rubio, who is also Trump’s national security adviser, that the widely leaked draft peace plan did not reflect the US position, but was a Russian “wish list”.
“It looked more like it was written in Russian to begin with,” Senator Mike Rounds, a Republican from South Dakota, said at a security conference in Canada.
However, Rubio denied the assertions, insisting that the plan was “authored by the US” and it was “based on input” from both Russia and Ukraine.
Rounds said he had been assured that the plan was presented to Witkoff, Trump’s overseas envoy, by “someone … representing Russia”. The senator continued: “It is not our recommendation. It is not our peace plan.”
Later, a US Department of State spokesperson said Rounds’s account of his conversation with Rubio was “blatantly false”.
Russian President Vladimir Putin, meanwhile, said Washington’s 28-point plan could “lay the foundation for a final peace settlement”.
Putin also threatened to seize more territory if Ukraine does not accept the proposal, warning that the reported capture of the Ukrainian city of Kupiansk “will inevitably be repeated in other key areas of the front line”.
Speaking from Kyiv, journalist Audrey MacAlpine said Russia has been making battlefield gains in regions of Ukraine where the peace proposal would hand it territory along the line of contact.
She told Al Jazeera that Moscow had carried out overnight attacks on Kherson and Zaporizhia, two regions where Russia would gain de facto control under the 28-point plan being discussed in Geneva.
“No doubt Russia is trying to make gains in these particular regions, and they’ve been successful,” she said. “They’ve been making slow but concerted gains.”
Is Trump likely to seal the peace deal this time?
We do not know yet.
During his presidential campaign leading up to the 2024 US election, Trump claimed that he could end Russia’s war on Ukraine within a day. But a deal proved elusive despite Washington’s diplomatic push.
Since returning to power for a second term in January, Trump has made resolving foreign conflicts central to US foreign policy. He claimed to have helped end several wars, including Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, the India-Pakistan war, and the Thailand-Cambodia war, among others. Trump even asked for a Nobel Peace Prize for stopping wars.
But he has struggled to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict, despite holding a summit with Putin in Alaska in August.
Trump’s first meeting with Zelenskyy ended in acrimony back in February. The US president made up with the Ukrainian leader, hosting him twice at the White House since the February White House meeting. But his attempt to organise a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy has not materialised.
In August, Trump warned Russia of severe consequences if Putin refused to end the war. He even announced sanctions on Moscow to force it to end the war. He also slapped hefty tariffs on India for buying Russian oil, which he said was financing Moscow’s war efforts.
As the talks were under way in Geneva on Sunday, Trump again took aim at Ukraine, saying Kyiv has not been grateful for American efforts related to the war with Russia.
“UKRAINE ‘LEADERSHIP’ HAS EXPRESSED ZERO GRATITUDE FOR OUR EFFORTS, AND EUROPE CONTINUES TO BUY OIL FROM RUSSIA. THE USA CONTINUES TO SELL MASSIVE $AMOUNTS OF WEAPONS TO NATO, FOR DISTRIBUTION TO UKRAINE,” Trump said in a Truth Social post on X, echoing remarks he made during a heated exchange in the White House in February in which Trump and US Vice President JD Vance berated Zelenskyy.
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