The nice European disentanglement from US shares has solely simply began | USAEMALL.com

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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favourite stories in this weekly newsletter.

The problem for European investors in disentangling themselves from the US is that, deliberately or otherwise, they are in deep. Portfolios everywhere, retail and institutional, are stuffed to the gills with US stocks.

This can lead you to one of two conclusions: First, that the outperformance in European stocks now under way is fun but ultimately a blip, and therefore the great disentanglement won’t happen. Or second, that we are at the start of a long and painful process for the US. I lean heavily towards the latter.

By now we all know the score: The widespread, almost universal belief among institutional investors that the US would dominate global stocks in 2025 has proven to be badly misplaced. The pro-growth, low-tax, anti-red-tape narrative of Donald Trump’s second presidency has collapsed under its own weight and given way to fears of a recession or stagflation. On-again-off-again trade tariffs and widespread federal jobs cuts are gnawing away at corporate and consumer confidence.

And the depth of the administration’s loathing for supposed allies in Europe has shocked investors there deeply. Fund managers at global investment houses recognise that vice-president JD Vance’s speech in Munich was problematic, but European investors were offended in a way that Americans perhaps have not recognised.

Markets are reacting as you might expect. The dollar is sliding, and European markets are streaking ahead of the US. It’s important to understand just how unusual this is. Germany’s Dax stocks index has outperformed the US S&P 500 in just two of the past 12 years. Analysts at Deutsche Bank point out that at the current pace — and yes, it is still early in the year — this is shaping up to be the best year for outperformance in the Dax in any year since 1960. Similarly, the dollar’s woes are for the history books. It has fallen further by this point in the year only six times since 1969.

Barclays is among those warning against getting overexcited. The rush of money in to Europe-focused funds is substantial, its analysts say, but it will struggle to keep running at this pace. Similarly, Germany’s announcement of fiscal stimulus does point to higher European growth, but Trump’s trade tariffs are likely to pull in the opposite direction — a “tug of war” that means “reports of the end of US exceptionalism may well prove greatly exaggerated”.

What we do know is that European exceptionalism is still a very young investment theme, and US dominance is hard-baked in to the financial system. 

Data from the US Federal Reserve shows that European investors held about $9tn in US stocks at the end of last year — around 17 per cent of the overall value of the US market and not far off the market capitalisation of all the equities in Europe.

This gigantic overallocation to the US has not happened by magic. It has just made financial sense over the long term. Paul Marsh of the London Business School, one of the authors of UBS’s Investment Returns Yearbook — a sacred text for markets nerds — points out that one dollar invested in the US at the start of 1900 was worth $899 by the end of the century in real terms. The same dollar invested in the rest of the world was worth just $119.

The first quarter of the 21st century shows a similar gap. A dollar invested in the US at the start of 2000 was worth $3.28 by the end of 2024, again, after inflation. For the rest of the world, you end up at a rather humdrum $1.63. As a rule, non-US investors who have failed to make a significant allocation to the US have not been doing their jobs properly.

The US has been hard to avoid, in fact. By the end of last year, 10 stocks made up nearly a quarter of the global total of market capitalisation in public equities. Nine of them are from the US. The US makes up 64 per cent of the value of all global stocks, or nearly 73 per cent of developed markets. Any investor tracking a global stocks index such as the MSCI Global may think this is a neutral strategy — a nice, easy way to achieve diversification. It’s not — it’s a nice, easy way to run a massive positive bet on the US. 

“We have argued over time that the merits of the US must be fully discounted,” Marsh said at the launch of his latest yearbook earlier this month. “It’s not that the US will stop being a dominant market or the US will stop being a hugely entrepreneurial country. It’s just that all has to be in the price at some point.”

Investors everywhere are hugely overexposed to the US. That was uncomfortable enough before Trump began his second presidency, and it feels rather more reckless now. It is hard for global investors to shake off more than a century of evidence that buying US assets is simply in the best financial interests of themselves or their clients, but lighter allocations to Trump’s America represent basic risk management at this point.

Trillions of investment dollars can leave the US if the rest of the world chooses to get back towards a neutral position. The question is how easily the rest of the world’s markets can absorb that money. As Trump said in a social media post outlining one of his many sets of trade tariffs: “Have fun!”

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