Monday, April 7

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You might have missed it, but April is “Financial Literacy Month” in the US. On April 1 (yes, really!) the White House released the following statement from Donald Trump:

During this National Financial Literacy Month, I urge families, communities, schools, and institutions to commit to bolstering their financial knowledge. There are amazing resources available to you and your family through the Department of the Treasury’s website that will assist you in making sound financial decisions. Together, we can all protect each American’s right to economic freedom, securing the promise of prosperity for generations to come.

Kudos to the White House for all all-time classic April Fool’s joke, and H/T Richard Metcalf for the spot. Anyway, here’s a selection of charts pilfered from various sell-side research notes that show how the US government’s sound financial decisions are securing the promise of prosperity for generations to come.

Tariffs up (zoomable image):

© JPMorgan

Stocks down (zoomable image):

© Deutsche Bank

Credit also clobbered (zoomable image):

© Deutsche Bank

Bigly moves pretty much everywhere (zoomable image):

© Goldman Sachs

Yet 10-year Treasury yield only down by 25 bps (zoomable image):

© Deutsche Bank

First-quarter earnings expectations fading (zoomable image):

© Barclays

Equity volatility up (zoomable image):

© Deutsche Bank

Uncertainty up (zoomable image):

© Goldman Sachs

Inflationary pressures climbing (zoomable version):

© Apollo

Unemployment expectations rising (zoomable version):

© Goldman Sachs

Business confidence down (zoomable image):

© Goldman Sachs

Bankruptcies already rising (zoomable image):

© Apollo

The GDP impact of tariffs (zoomable image):

© Principal Asset Management

Lots of rate cuts getting priced in (zoomable image):

© JPMorgan

But recession expectations still climbing (zoomable image):

© Goldman Sachs

Further reading:
— Global stocks tumble as Donald Trump offers no respite from tariffs (FT)

https://www.ft.com/content/b418d001-b1cf-4f0e-93f0-50470f40e97a

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