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The first quarter of the NFL season is in the books, and although there’s a lot of football left to play, you can sense things starting to fall into place for many teams (and developing concerns for others). Let’s take a look at some of the things we’ve learned after four weeks, and also award some superlatives.
What we’ve learned
Fit is everything
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold’s career resurrection is among the best stories of the young season. Cast off by the New York Jets and then Carolina Panthers, Darnold used a season as a backup in San Francisco to help reset his career, and then signed with the Vikings this offseason to serve as a bridge to eventual first-round pick J.J. McCarthy. But through four weeks, Darnold has been a star. He’s leading the NFL with 11 touchdown passes and a 118.9 passer rating and has completed a career-best 68.9 percent of his passes while helping lead the Vikings to a 4-0 record.
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While Darnold continues this revival, quarterbacks Baker Mayfield, Geno Smith and Jared Goff are also enjoying second-chance success with Tampa Bay, Seattle and Detroit, respectively. Derek Carr looks revitalized under new Saints offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak and Justin Fields has exhibited promise in Pittsburgh. These reclamation projects provide a valuable lesson, that seemingly debilitating struggles aren’t always the fault of the quarterback. It doesn’t always matter how talented a prospect is if he’s on a team led by a general manager who doesn’t understand how to properly build around him, or if he’s playing for a coach who doesn’t understand how to tailor his system to that passer’s strengths. But if blessed with the opportunity to pursue a more stable situation, some quarterbacks can make good on second chances.
Sure, Darnold — now 27 and in his seventh NFL season — has probably learned a lot more than he could have ever imagined as a 21-year-old rookie. But Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell and GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah get it, and have used a strong rushing attack, quality offensive line, supremely talented wide receiver in Justin Jefferson and dominant defense to ease pressure on Darnold while capitalizing on his strengths.
Defense is making a comeback
We’re often told the NFL is “a passing league,” but through four weeks, passing numbers are down across the NFL. Teams have averaged 202.8 passing yards a game compared to 217.9 per contest through four weeks last season. Passing numbers have declined every season since 2020, when teams averaged 249.8 per game. Rushing numbers have increased slightly, but as a whole offenses have found it more challenging to move the ball this season.
Why? Have the league’s defensive gurus cracked the code on these high-powered offenses despite rule changes that make it harder to cover wide receivers?
Yes and no, said three NFL coaches with offense expertise. It’s true that defensive coordinators are finding ways to take away explosive plays. They’re using more two-high safety looks in an attempt to guard against getting beat deep by wide receivers. That has in part forced quarterbacks to settle for shorter, underneath passes. But offensive coaches also report that as defenses opt to cover the pass with seven players, that has left them with more four-man fronts, which lends itself to more favorable run opportunities. Some of these offensive coaches also believe that deteriorating offensive line play has factored into the decline in passing yards. Even though quarterbacks are facing more four-man fronts, sacks have still gone up slightly. Decreased practice time and less full-contact action in training camp and the preseason are among the potential reasons for offensive line struggles.
Will this trend continue, or after limited work together in preseason games, did offensive starters simply spend the first month of the season honing their skills as they gear up for an explosion?
The Cowboys’ Brandon Aubrey has made field goals of 65 and 60 yards this season. (Andrew Dieb / Imagn Images)
Kickers are up
The new “dynamic” kickoff generated a lot of buzz this offseason, and the rule change has made this element of the game slightly more relevant. Teams have combined for 187 returns this season, compared to 112 at this point last year, according to NFL Research. But the real buzz involves field goals, on which kickers are booming the ball through the uprights from greater distances than ever.
Already, we have seen Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey make two field goals of 60 yards or greater (a 65-yarder in Week 3 and 60-yarder in Week 4). New England’s Joey Slye nailed a 63-yarder on Sunday. Thus far, kickers have successfully kicked 61 field goals of 50 yards or longer, which is a record through four weeks, according to NFL Research. The previous record was 46 (2023).
The Chiefs are still the Chiefs, but …
Some things never change. Fresh off their repeat as Super Bowl champions, the Kansas City Chiefs have kicked off their three-peat quest with a four-game win streak. The Chiefs haven’t lost a game since Week 16 of the 2023 season, putting them on a 10-game win streak when including the playoffs.
The Chiefs’ approach has differed to start this season. Travis Kelce got off to a slow start, but Patrick Mahomes relied heavily on second-year wide receiver Rashee Rice and rookie Xavier Worthy while leading his team to wins over the Ravens, Bengals, Falcons and Chargers. The Chiefs’ success has come despite the the losses of free-agent wideout Marquise Brown and top running back Isiah Pacheco to injuries. But now Mahomes and the Chiefs will be tested further. Rice suffered a serious knee injury in Sunday’s win over the Chargers. Already shorthanded, Kansas City will need other players to step up. Kelce did have his most productive day of the season (seven catches, 89 yards). But can Worthy assume the No. 1 role? Will the Chiefs have enough firepower to defend their title, or will their hopes fizzle down the stretch of the season?
Panthers’ dysfunction is hard to cure
Carolina Panthers owner David Tepper’s impatience prompted him to fire Frank Reich after just 11 games last season. This past offseason, Tepper charged Dave Canales with the task of fixing top 2023 pick Bryce Young. But after two dismal performances, the Panthers’ rookie head coach benched Young (24 hours after pledging loyalty to him) and turned to Andy Dalton. The 14th-year veteran did help the Panthers win a game in his first start. But Carolina faces all kinds of uncertainty regarding Young’s future. Will Canales help the Alabama product reset his career and better understand the pro game as a backup? Or will the Panthers eventually trade him?
Superlatives
Brightest newcomer: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels
The second pick of the 2024 draft is off to a historic start, completing a league-best 82.1 percent of his passes. He has passed for three touchdowns and just one interception while rushing for another four touchdowns to lead the Commanders to a 3-1 start. Give offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury props for his work in developing Daniels and easing him into his role as starting quarterback.
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Biggest surprise: Vikings QB Sam Darnold
As mentioned, Darnold looks like a man reborn after stepping in as the Vikings’ replacement for Kirk Cousins. Leading the league in touchdown passes and passer rating, and ranking second in yards per attempt (8.8 yards), Darnold has Minnesota looking like a playoff team.
Best coaching job: Packers’ Matt LaFleur
There’s stiff competition for this distinction. Minnesota’s O’Connell and Washington play-caller Kingsbury both deserve consideration. But LaFleur took Titans castoff Malik Willis, inserted him into the Packers’ offense for an injured Jordan Love, tailored the system to capitalize on Willis’ strengths and positioned him for effective play and wins in both starts.
After playing all 17 games last season following a concussion-plagued 2022 campaign, the Dolphins’ quarterback suffered yet another concussion in Week 2. Now Tagovailoa faces an uncertain future. The Dolphins have placed him on injured reserve to give him time to heal and seek additional medical advice, but it’s unknown when/if he will return. Without Tagovailoa, the Dolphins are 0-2 after using Skylar Thompson and Tyler Huntley as starters. Huntley will start again Sunday at the Patriots.
Derrick Henry and the Ravens have won two in a row, against the Cowboys and the Bills. (Tommy Gilligan / Imagn Images)
Scariest 2-2 team: Ravens
After an 0-2 start, the retooled Ravens broke out of their funk with a much-needed win at Dallas and then rolled to an authoritative 35-10 victory over Buffalo. Offseason pickup Derrick Henry rushed for 199 yards against the Bills while backup Justice Hill had 18 rushing yards and 78 receiving yards and a touchdown. Lamar Jackson rushed for a touchdown and passed for two more. The Ravens defense had struggled to find its footing following former coordinator Mike Macdonald’s departure to become Seattle’s head coach, but had its way with Josh Allen and the Bills, restoring confidence that Baltimore can contend in the AFC this season.
Most suspect winning record: Bills
After a comeback win over Arizona and a thumping of Miami, the Bills looked elite and Allen an MVP candidate. But then came Sunday night’s loss at home to the Ravens, which raises questions about the Bills’ legitimacy. Arizona is inconsistent, and Miami struggled mightily against the same defense that Baltimore walloped. Buffalo (3-1) may win the AFC East because of the Dolphins’ Tua-related misfortunes, the Patriots’ rebuilding and the fact the Jets will always be the Jets even with Aaron Rodgers. But can the Bills really go toe-to-toe with the conference’s elite teams?
Hottest coaching seat: Doug Pederson or Nick Sirianni?
Pederson was supposed to rescue the Jaguars from the dysfunction of the short-lived Urban Meyer era. He was supposed to help Trevor Lawrence live up to the billing of a generational talent, one who just earned a new $275 million contract. But three years in, Pederson appears no closer to these goals than when he started. Sure, Lawrence showed promise in 2022 in helping Jacksonville make an unlikely playoff push. But rather than build on that success, Lawrence and the Jaguars regressed in 2023, losing five of their last six games to miss the postseason. And now they’ve opened the year 0-4 as Pederson continues to defend highly criticized offensive coordinator Press Taylor. Can Pederson, whose team has back-to-back games in London in Weeks 6 and 7 after hosting the Colts on Sunday, get this thing turned around?
Meanwhile, Pederson’s replacement in Philadelphia finds himself under a great deal of pressure as well after a listless 33-16 loss to the Buccaneers dropped the Eagles to 2-2. Nick Sirianni started hot, taking Philly to the Super Bowl in Year 2 at the helm. But the Eagles regressed last season and continue to struggle. Sirianni has a very good roster with which to work, and offseason signee Saquon Barkley has already made his presence felt. But Jalen Hurts has yet to regain the excellence and consistency the Eagles hoped for under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Injuries to wideouts A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith have hampered the offense. But as a whole, this unit continues to underperform, and defensive guru Vic Fangio (hired this offseason) has yet to cure the ills that plagued the Eagles on that side of the ball.
Eagles brass positioned this team to contend, but things remain shaky. That ultimately could cost Sirianni, who admitted last week he hadn’t prepared his team adequately for Tampa Bay.
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Unluckiest team: Rams
After going 5-12 in 2022, one year after winning the Super Bowl, the Rams went 10-7 last season and returned to the postseason. They aimed to make a deep playoff run in 2024, but injuries have hit L.A. hard across the offensive line, in its secondary (cornerback Darious Williams) and at receiver (Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp). At 1-3, the Rams already find themselves in an early hole in the competitive NFC West.
Earliest big-spending return: Falcons QB Kirk Cousins
The Falcons believed they had a roster fit for contention, and just needed a quarterback to put them over the top. So they armed new head coach Raheem Morris with Cousins, signing the 13th-year veteran and four-time Pro Bowler to a four-year, $180 million contract with $140 million guaranteed despite the fact he was coming off surgery for a torn Achilles tendon. The Falcons offense isn’t quite a well-oiled machine yet, but Cousins already is making his presence felt, leading his team on game-winning drives twice in the first four weeks.
There were rumblings during the preseason that this relationship might quickly sour. And while the Raiders are 2-2, Adams has requested a trade, and Las Vegas has let teams know he’s available for the right price.
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What team makes sense for Adams? The Ravens certainly could use an explosive pass-catching threat for Jackson, and Adams could potentially put them over the top. The Chiefs are desperate with Rice and Brown injured. But would the Raiders trade within the division? Buffalo drafted Keon Coleman to replace Stefon Diggs, but Adams certainly would look good catching passes from Allen. And Justin Herbert is working with a thin supporting cast, but the Chargers also reside with the Raiders in the AFC West.
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(Top photos of Jayden Daniels and Sam Darnold: Stacy Revere and Christian Petersen / Getty Images)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5811400/2024/10/03/nfl-quarter-season-superlatives-darnold-daniels/
