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The House is expected to have 434 members present. The one seat expected to be vacant is that of former Rep. Matt Gaetz.

Members will be called individually and vote by calling out a name. To be reelected as speaker, Johnson will need a majority. The magic number isn’t set in stone, which is why things can get a bit tricky. It could change based on attendance, and whether members vote for a named candidate or simply record themselves as “present.”

So let’s run through some scenarios.

If all 215 Democrats show up and unite behind their leader, Rep. Hakeem Jeffries of New York, Johnson will only be able to lose one Republican who votes for another named candidate:

• Jeffries: 215
• Johnson: 218
• Other candidate: 1
• 218 out of 434 = A majority for Johnson

If he loses a second Republican to another named candidate, he would not have the magic number for a majority: 

• Jeffries: 215
• Johnson: 217
• Other candidate: 2
• 217 out of 434 = Not a majority

He could in theory lose one GOP vote to another named candidate, and afford one other Republican defection so long as that person records “present” and doesn’t vote for an alternative candidate. That’s because the number he’d need for a majority would be lower:

• Jeffries: 215
• Johnson: 217
• Other candidate: 1
• Present: 1
• 217 out of 433 = A majority for Johnson

He cannot lose a GOP vote to a named candidate if two Republicans vote “present,” however:

• Jeffries: 215
• Johnson: 216
• Other candidate: 1
• Present: 2
• 216 out of 432 = Not a majority for Johnson

He could lose three defectors if they all vote “present”:

• Jeffries: 215
• Johnson: 216
• Present: 3
• 216 out of 431 = A majority for Johnson

However, we know this last scenario won’t happen, because Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky has already told reporters he won’t vote for Johnson and will vote for an alternate candidate. 

Currently, Massie is the only “no.” He told reporters in December that he had a “few” alternate candidates in mind, but wouldn’t say who they were.

There are several Republicans who have publicly said they’re undecided on Johnson, including Reps. Chip Roy, Andy Biggs, Victoria Spartz, Tim Burchett and Ralph Norman. Johnson met with several of the holdouts on Thursday.

The key advantage for Johnson is that no other Republican is currently challenging him or has publicly expressed interest in doing so.