Azlan Adnan, a fellow with the Academy of Sciences Malaysia (ASM) told CNA that the location of the epicentre of the two earthquakes on Sunday reinforces the point that the fault is “indeed active”.
“The alignment of the incident is also consistent with regional fault patterns (roughly northwest–southeast), suggesting the possible reactivation of an old fault,” said the earthquake engineering expert.
He added that records of earthquakes due to major faults in the peninsula indicate that tremors with magnitudes of up to 5 have occurred periodically, and even magnitude six in rare cases.
“Considering the Mersing Fault (Zone), which could be at least 20km long, if it ruptures in full, a magnitude of up to magnitude 6.5 could occur. This means that the possibility of a larger earthquake does exist,” added Azlan.
Geologist Wei Shengji of NTU’s Asian School of Environment told CNA that there is precedent of significant earthquakes occurring – citing two tremors in 1922 with epicentres in Johor state. The tremors were recorded at magnitude 5.0 and 5.4, with the former near the Mersing Fault Zone while the latter near the Bentong Suture.
“There is a chance that larger earthquakes could take place in the future, as bigger events (such as those in 1922) did occur in the past. The 1922 events were widely felt in Singapore,” he added.
Meltzner, meanwhile, said that there was an earthquake in December 1948 near southern Singapore and that the tremors were felt widely in Geylang, Bukit Timah, Sentosa island and reportedly damaged a house in Chinatown.
“Because the shaking in 1948 was similar to what people felt (on Sunday), the 1948 earthquake was probably also about magnitude 4, but much closer to Singapore, demonstrating that earthquakes happen in Singapore, too, even if they are rare,” said Meltzner.
Environmentalist Renard Siew, who is the climate change adviser to the Centre for Governance and Political Studies (Cent-GPS), a Malaysia-based behavioural and social science research firm, added that climate change could in the future exacerbate the frequency of earthquakes, albeit indirectly.
Citing studies done in India and Taiwan, he said that higher rainfall due to climate change have led interactions to the soil and ground earth, and this triggers more seismic activities in certain areas.
“Climate change doesn’t cause earthquakes directly but it can definitely amplify conditions for seismic risk,” said Siew.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-earthquake-tremors-johor-singapore-mersing-fault-zone-5314786
