As trade rumors have swirled over the last month, Jimmy Butler’s play has been a roller coaster.
In his final two games before the Miami Heat suspended him for seven games for multiple instances of “conduct detrimental to the team,” Butler took just 11 total shots in 50 minutes and looked disengaged. But in the 11 games he played from Nov. 18 to Dec. 16, he averaged 22 points, seven rebounds and five assists while shooting 60 percent from the field, and the Heat went 8-3.
Butler, when engaged, can still really play. What has been in question, however, is his ability to play a full schedule (he has not played more than 65 games in a regular season since 2016-17) and the mercurial nature of his personality. Butler is an elite competitor in the games that matter, and he has a real propensity for stepping up in the biggest moments. However, this isn’t the first time he’s forced his way out of a situation.
A little more than a week after Heat president Pat Riley said the team “will not trade” Butler, the franchise said Friday that it will “listen to offers” for Butler after the six-time All-Star told the Heat he wants to be traded.
Butler is prepared for the possibility of any destination in a potential deal, a league source told The Athletic this past week, but it’s hard to see Butler being happy in a rebuilding situation. Plus, organizations on the precipice should be wary about what could occur if things turn sour. In my conversations, league sources speculating on Butler’s landing spot across the NBA struggled to come up with deals they think makes sense for everyone involved.
One factor is the new collective bargaining agreement, which is making the construction of trades exceptionally difficult for contending teams that are spending a lot. Another factor is the difficulty identifying what exactly Miami’s motives are in a Butler trade. Is it to maximize future asset return? Is it to open up flexibility? Is it to remain competitive now as opposed to taking a step back? Is it a combination of these things? One thing league sources seem to agree on is that Miami does not want to take back a large amount of long-term money in a Butler deal. As a destination organization in a desirable city without state income tax, the Heat are well-positioned to persuade high-end players to join a team that already has strong building blocks in Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Nikola Jović, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and others.
The other issue complicating the thought process for Miami is the presence of Butler’s player option for 2025-26. If Butler picks up that option, he’s slated to make $52 million next season. Can the Heat really assume Butler is so disgruntled that he’d turn down a $52 million season at age 36? The Athletic reported in June that Butler would not sign an extension with any team ahead of his opt-out clause, and ESPN reported this past week that teams have been informed Butler “intends” to decline the option to reach free agency. League sources agreed that Butler is unlikely to have $50 million per season waiting for him if he were to hit the open market this summer because of which teams project to have cap space and the new CBA making things more difficult in terms of sign-and-trade flexibility.
I asked five different NBA executives to, as of now, project Butler’s contract for next year if he were to decline his option and hit the market. The answers were that he likely would get something in the ballpark of a shorter-term deal around $30 million to $35 million per season. Would a three-year, $100 million deal be waiting from a team Butler would be willing to play for? Would that be enough to get Butler to opt out of his deal? Would Butler be willing to opt in or opt out of his option upon being traded within the next month in order to get to a premium destination and give that team certainty for its planning? That would be risky for Butler, but — taking his words at face value — he was clear in his news conference that it’s not about money for him.
These factors have created one of the more interesting leverage dynamics in recent league history. With that said, I’ve put together four mock trade scenarios (with some help from Spotrac) involving teams that either have been rumored to be in the mix for Butler or could theoretically make sense.
I have a healthy degree of skepticism that these deals make sense for all the teams involved largely because it’s hard to come up with a two-team deal that accomplishes everything Miami might be looking for. I also started to wonder whether Miami calls Butler’s bluff and rides out the rest of the year with him on the roster. By doing so, the Heat could enter June with him on the books, and either get him to opt in to accept a trade somewhere or allow him to opt out and move on. That’s what the LA Clippers did this past summer with Paul George, and league sources believe it’s a real possibility that shouldn’t be discounted.
However, if Butler is traded, these scenarios at least start to achieve some of what Miami should be looking to do, while also achieving goals for other teams.
The Most Sense: Golden State Warriors
Three-team trade (on Feb. 5-6)
• Heat acquire Bruce Brown Jr. from Raptors; Dennis Schröder, Gary Payton II, one first-round pick and one second-round pick from Warriors
• Raptors acquire Andrew Wiggins and Gui Santos from Warriors
• Warriors acquire Jimmy Butler from Heat
In my opinion, the Warriors continue to be the team rumored to be in the mix for Butler that makes the most sense. Stephen Curry and Draymond Green are Hall-of-Famers who aren’t getting younger. The question is whether they can get Butler without decimating the younger transitional core they’ve assembled.
This was the best deal I could construct that achieves multiple goals across organizations. For Golden State to acquire Butler on its own, the Warriors would have to put together a five-for-two swap that often gets complicated midseason, but involving a third team makes things a bit easier. In this deal, the Warriors get Butler while avoiding moving rising young forward Jonathan Kuminga. This is possible because the Warriors acquired Schröder on Dec. 15, allowing him to be aggregated again in the final two days before the deadline. Essentially, they’d get to upgrade from Wiggins and Schröder to Butler, as Butler provides the playmaking they acquired Schröder for as well as the defensive play they need from Wiggins all in one player. Butler would also theoretically fit well within Golden State’s offense, as he’s a deft off-ball mover.
Miami achieves a number of goals with this deal. The Heat would add solid rotation players who could help support Adebayo and Herro this season. Brown, Payton and Schröder are on expiring contracts, meaning Miami gets cap flexibility moving forward. On top of that, the Heat also replenish their asset capital with draft picks. Maybe Golden State would have to add another first-rounder to get it done. Maybe the Heat would haggle for Brandin Podziemski to be included. If they really wanted to, they could expand this deal into a four-teamer and flip Brown or Schröder to another team that could use a perimeter player while picking up further draft assets.
Why would Toronto help facilitate this? The Raptors turn Brown into Wiggins, a player in the middle of a resurgent season, averaging 16 points and playing terrific, switchable defense across the perimeter. The Raptors desperately need a player like this who can guard multiple spots and has real positional size, as they currently have the No. 26 defensive rating in the NBA. Outside of Scottie Barnes, the Raptors are strangely light on big wings with athleticism after years of valuing them seemingly more than anyone else in the NBA. Wiggins would fit really well in a starting lineup also featuring Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl. Raptors president of basketball operations Masai Ujiri also has a long history of valuing players over draft-pick capital in trades. The only recent deal where he valued pick capital over players was the Pascal Siakam move at last year’s deadline.
GO DEEPER
Why Warriors aren’t likely to pursue Jimmy Butler before NBA trade deadline
The Big Swing: Houston Rockets
Three-team trade (on Feb. 5-6)
• Heat acquire Bojan Bogdanović, De’Anthony Melton, Ziaire Williams, first-round pick and second-round pick from Nets; Jeff Green, first-round pick and second-round pick from Rockets
• Rockets acquire Jimmy Butler and Josh Richardson from Heat; Keon Johnson from Nets
• Nets acquire Jalen Green, Jock Landale, Jae’Sean Tate and Aaron Holiday from Rockets
I want to say upfront: I don’t think the Rockets will make a move for Butler. This front office has been exceptionally patient in team-building in the post-James Harden era. Making a serious move like this for a 35-year-old and being forced to integrate him into a primary, on-ball role for what might only end up being half of a season seems like the antithesis of how general manager Rafael Stone and his front office have built their roster.
The Rockets have myriad ways to get a deal done for Butler. They have $41 million in expiring salaries tied up in five players (Steven Adams, Jeff Green, Landale, Tate and Holiday). They can combine those five players along with draft picks for Butler and Alec Burks in a five-for-two swap. They have young players teams around the league are very interested in, such as Cam Whitmore. They have a significant number of first-round picks after a bevy of deft moves to set themselves up for the future. They also have Fred VanVleet (who has a team option for 2025-26) if they believe Butler would be a serious upgrade on the 6-foot point guard. VanVleet makes $42.8 million this year, which means a one-for-one swap of those two players with the Rockets attaching picks to VanVleet works under the CBA. But if the Rockets are making a big-swing move that would primarily be to improve their chances this season, they should likely try to keep their best players.
If Houston were actually going to go all-in, I prefer a deal involving Jalen Green. He has been unable to grab the primary playmaker spot with both hands at this stage, a fact that continues to significantly hinder the Houston offense. He’s in the midst of his most inefficient season yet, posting a true shooting percentage 8 percent below league average. He just signed an extension this fall for three years, $105 million. The Rockets could look to use that in the summer as a salary-matching contract to get a star who more aligns with their timeline, or they could try to get a deal done now in case Green’s season goes further off the rails.
Here, the Rockets would get Butler for this playoff run, remove the risk factor of the Green extension that they almost certainly have to be wondering about right now as they enter a contention window and only have to give up a first-round pick. If Butler works out, it’s a massive win. Maybe he opts in and you keep him for another year, or maybe you re-sign him and VanVleet to longer-term deals with smaller average annual values. Regardless, it gives your odds of being competitive this season a massive boost given that Houston has an elite defense and is simply in need of a perimeter shot creator.
For the Nets, they get to take a flier on Green, a player with upside as they continue to try to rebuild their team. There’s certainly skillset overlap with impending restricted free agent Cam Thomas, but the price point of one of the three late first-round picks they have in 2025 along with expiring contracts is so low that the juice is probably worth the squeeze, especially given that Green’s presence doesn’t hinder their long-term salary-cap situation that much if the team is planning on moving Cam Johnson at the deadline. I probably wouldn’t take the bet on Green at his incoming salary, but if anyone is going to do it, a team like Brooklyn, which can handle the downside risk easily while it tries to jump-start a rebuild, makes sense. The Nets, however, are certainly the team in this three-way swap that I think would be most likely to say no.
For Miami, it’s hard to imagine doing better from an asset perspective than two first-rounders and two second-rounders. On top of that, the Heat get massive salary relief moving forward, as all of the players they’d acquire are on expiring deals.
GO DEEPER
Heat Today: How did Jimmy Butler, Pat Riley and Miami reach this point?
The Desperation Landing Spot: Phoenix Suns
• Heat acquire Bradley Beal from Suns
• Suns acquire Jimmy Butler and Josh Richardson from Heat
The Suns seem to be in desperation mode, sitting under .500 and outside of the Western Conference Play-In picture. Butler would be about as perfect a fit between Kevin Durant and Devin Booker as you could find, as he has the ability to take on tough defensive assignments and also handle the ball. The Suns would get bigger across the wings and stronger and more versatile with their lineup constructions. Frankly, they’d just get better.
Beal’s numbers don’t look great, as he’s averaging 18 points per game while shooting 49 percent from the field and 39 percent from 3. But I’ve been impressed with his game this year, as he’s playing the role of secondary creator next to Durant and Booker. He’s taken on more responsibility defensively and has been better on that end than I’ve seen previously. I wouldn’t say he’s been a positive on that end, and the Suns would be helped by upgrading on the wing defensively, but Beal is giving effort. In his previous nine games before a recent hip contusion, Beal averaged 21 points per night.
With that being said, I’d be surprised to see Miami take back Beal. As noted above, the Heat can create a lot of flexibility by either trading Butler now for expiring contracts or by letting his deal expire and hoping he opts out to facilitate a sign-and-trade. Beal is owed $50.2 million this season, $53.7 million next season, then has a player option for $57.1 million in 2026-27. That’s a drastic overpayment for what he provides now at 31 years old. Additionally, he has a history of injuries. Beal hasn’t played over 60 games in a season since 2018-19 and has already missed 10 games this season.
The question for the Heat becomes whether they could flip Beal to a third team. That’s where another complicating factor comes into play. Beal has a no-trade clause that allows him to veto deals to non-desirable landing spots. Would Beal really agree to go to Brooklyn if (hypothetically) the Nets agreed to flip the Ben Simmons contract to Miami for Beal? The Nets are entering a period of rebuilding and play in a state that features drastically higher state income taxes than Arizona. That doesn’t seem like a great landing spot. Would Beal want to go to Toronto? Or Detroit? Both have either cap space or expiring contracts to send along to Miami, but I’m skeptical.
Even though it makes a ton of sense for Butler to end up in Phoenix, I don’t think it makes much sense for Miami. And without Beal involved, Phoenix doesn’t have any other mechanism to acquire Butler without moving Durant or Booker due to limitations in the new CBA.
My Favorite Landing Spot: Memphis Grizzlies
Three-team trade
• Heat acquire Tim Hardaway Jr. and two second-round picks from Pistons; Brandon Clarke, Luke Kennard, G.G. Jackson and first-round pick from Grizzlies
• Pistons acquire Marcus Smart from Grizzlies
• Grizzlies acquire Jimmy Butler and Alec Burks from Heat
The Grizzlies are my favorite wild-card Butler team now that Butler has seemingly made it clear he’ll play anywhere other than Miami. They have thrived this season despite a number of injuries to their primary playmaker, Ja Morant. He has missed 15 games already, but the team is still 23-13 and in third place in the West. That tells me Memphis has a real shot to contend if things break right.
One way to position yourself best for things to break right is to add the big two-way wing creator on offense that the organization has been missing in this era of Grizzlies basketball. We also know Memphis is in the market for a big wing with a defensive edge, and league sources have told The Athletic the team was in the mix for Dorian Finney-Smith prior to the Nets’ decision to trade him to the Lakers.
The Grizzlies give up a lot in this potential deal. The key piece I think they’d be least excited about losing is Clarke, a versatile two-way forward who has returned well from a torn Achilles this season. The Grizzlies are beating teams by 14 points per 100 possessions with Clarke on the court this year, allowing only 105 points per 100 possessions. In part, that’s due to opponents shooting an unsustainably low 3-point percentage of 30 percent, but he’s an excellent player who moves the ball quickly and does his job on defense. Jackson also had a strong rookie season last year when everyone on the Grizzlies was injured, although questions remain about how well-suited his style of play will be toward playing in a winning situation. He’s certainly talented, though, and would be a get for the Heat. Smart has been snake bitten by injuries in Memphis, but when he’s been on the court, he has provided many of the winning attributes that brought him a number of fans during his time in Boston.
The Grizzlies have more than enough depth to make up for losing Smart and Clarke. You would still be looking at an 11-man depth chart of Morant, Desmond Bane, Butler, Jaren Jackson Jr., Zach Edey, Scotty Pippen Jr., Jaylen Wells, Jake LaRavia, Santi Aldama and Jay Huff. They’re also going to get Vince Williams back soon, John Konchar would still be on the roster, and the organization is high on rookie two-way player Cam Spencer. They would still be the deepest team in the NBA, and given their history, if any front office should trust their scouting department to be able to replenish their depth after a consolidation deal, it’s this one.
Here’s another reason a deal like this makes sense: By removing the $36 million owed next season to Clarke, Smart and Jackson from the books, the Grizzlies could position themselves with cap space if Butler decided to depart or if they decided to let him walk. That would set them up perfectly to be able to renegotiate-and-extend Jackson’s contract in the offseason, as he’ll be entering the final year of his rookie extension that sees him paid only $23 million in 2025-26. There’s no chance they’ll get Jackson to agree to an extension off that salary, as it would be a massive underpayment for a player on track to make his second All-Star Game this season. There would be a risk factor here for Memphis that Butler would decide to pick up his option. But if he does, that gives you another year with him in this window to try to win a title before his money comes off the books, allowing you to max Jackson in free agency the following summer for a number greater than what anyone else will pay him.
In this deal, Miami gets salary relief but also receives players in Clarke, Hardaway and Kennard who can help their cause this season. Hardaway and Kennard are on expiring deals. Clarke has two years left on his deal after this one, but if the Heat needed the cap space to make a big swing, he’d be easily movable to another team this summer given that he only makes $12.5 million. The Heat also would get to take the upside swing on Jackson, a big-time scoring prospect at 20 years old who showed real flashes of shot creation in the NBA last season. The picks aren’t anything to sneeze at, either. It would be a later first-rounder from Memphis, but the second-rounder coming from Detroit clearly projects as a top-40 pick, and another one is Miami’s own pick coming back its way.
Smart’s injury history and play thus far would create a risk factor for the Heat heading into the summer if they wanted flexibility. I wouldn’t say his play has made him worth $21.6 million next season either. Enter the Pistons, who have cap space and a desire to try to make the Play-In this year. Smart, if healthy, would help that while not costing the team all that much. Following Jaden Ivey’s recent broken leg, the Pistons could really use another player comfortable handling the ball along with Cade Cunningham. Smart would be an awesome veteran presence for J.B. Bickerstaff, a coach who has prioritized the defensive end in his first season in Detroit. More than anything, I think Smart would really help developing big man Jalen Duren as a guard fighting around screens. Duren has been the biggest reason, in my opinion, that the team remains outside of the top half of the league in defensive efficiency. Having Smart on the floor would help him a lot. At the very least, it would give the Pistons an even better evaluation context to tell them whether it is worth extending Duren.
The Grizzlies haven’t really been mentioned much with the Butler sweepstakes. But if I were them, I would want to push my chips firmly into the table this year. With Victor Wembanyama coming down the track for San Antonio, the Thunder continuing to look like they’re on an upward trajectory and Dallas having looked terrific this year when Luka Dončić was healthy, the window might not get wider for the Grizzlies than it is right now if they can get some luck from the injury gods. Butler helps their present-day goals while also potentially helping out their long-term planning even if he doesn’t stick around.
This is the kind of play that makes sense across the board, and the Grizzlies are the team I’d like to most see take the Butler swing.
(Top photo of Jimmy Butler and Bradley Beal: Carmen Mandato / Getty Images)
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6036624/2025/01/05/jimmy-butler-trade-rumors-heat-nba/
