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Clowns to the left of you and jokers to the right? Given the uncertain outlook, being stuck in the middle is not the worst place for investors seeking defensive plays. Exchanges should benefit from market volatility — whether asset prices head higher or lower.
Monday and Friday produced record levels of US stock trading volume. Index options activity soared, too. Chicago’s CME Group, whose futures products range from energy and interest rates to equity indices and Treasuries, reported its second-highest volume day ever with 66.6mn contracts changing hands. New York rival Intercontinental Exchange, home of Brent oil, coffee, orange juice and the New York Stock Exchange, also handled record volumes in its commodity, energy, oil and interest rates offerings.
Activity since US President Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff bonanza has been extraordinary. While volatility will subside from extreme levels, it will probably remain elevated, boosting trading volumes and widening the spreads between buying and selling prices, potentially drawing in more traders to make markets. Exchanges should benefit.
Brokers, too, benefit from higher activity levels. But the likes of Robinhood are highly reliant on retail investors, who have notably added to their holdings whenever the market fell in recent years. The risk is that sheer uncertainty pushes even the most enthusiastic dip-buying small investors to the sidelines, depressing trading volumes for these groups.
Exchanges are also better placed to benefit from moves across asset classes beyond stocks. After a muted few days, Treasuries fell heavily on Monday while interest rate futures are pricing in almost four quarter-point cuts by the year end, versus roughly two a few weeks ago.
Shares in the largest US and European bourses have fallen since the big tariff announcement too, but to differing degrees. CME Group — the likeliest winner given its range of asset classes — has fallen the least, down 4 per cent, and Euronext, also highly geared to market activity, the next best performer, off 6 per cent. At the other end of the scale, Nasdaq and LSEG, whose respective pushes into regulation technology and data have reduced their exposure to trading, have fallen about 12 per cent.
Scottish band Stealers Wheel penned “Stuck in the Middle With You” to describe a party at which they were “trying to make some sense of it all”. Investors globally will be pursuing the same ambition. In the meantime, sticking with middlemen, such as exchanges, should be a worthwhile move.
https://www.ft.com/content/bad648c6-7778-4142-bbcc-302a332e4cef
