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Donald Trump’s move to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook has triggered bets of lower near-term interest rates, but higher inflation in the future, as worries grow over the US president’s attack on the central bank.
The gap between long- and short-term yields climbed on Tuesday to its widest in three years. The shift points to concerns that the Fed will begin lowering rates soon because of mounting political pressure, but will then need to increase them years down the line as policymakers battle inflation.
Trump announced on Monday night that he was sacking Cook “effective immediately”, citing allegations of mortgage fraud. Cook’s removal would allow the US president to select a replacement more open to interest rate cuts.
Cook’s attorney, Abbe Lowell, said on Tuesday that “we will be filing a lawsuit challenging this illegal action”, paving the way for a legal clash between the senior Fed policymaker and the Trump administration.
The US dollar weakened on Tuesday and two-year Treasury yields fell 0.04 percentage points to 3.69 per cent as investors anticipated downward pressure on the Fed’s policy rate.
Thirty-year yields rose as much as 0.06 percentage points, with the gap between the two reaching 1.25 percentage points — matching a three-year intraday high set in the market turmoil that followed Trump’s “liberation day” tariff announcement in April. Later on Tuesday, 30-year yields eased back, up 0.02 percentage points at 4.91 per cent.
“If successful, this [will be] an important dent in central bank independence,” said Marieke Blom, chief economist at Dutch bank ING. “People pay a high price via higher inflation and higher interest rates when central bank independence is lost.”
Wall Street bank Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday morning: “We view markets’ response to the headlines as more characteristic of risk-off across US assets, rather than purely a dovish policy shock.”
It added: “Challenges to Fed independence pose clear downside risks to the dollar.”
The reaction on US stock markets was muted on Tuesday afternoon, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite both little changed.
Investors have grown increasingly uneasy in recent months about Trump’s criticism of Fed chair Jay Powell, his temporary appointment of Stephen Miran to the central bank’s rate-setting panel and other moves such as the sacking of a top statistics chief.
Central bank independence and reliable economic statistics have been cornerstones of developed markets in recent decades, and US Treasuries provide benchmark rates that underpin trillions of dollars of financial assets.
Elizabeth Warren, the top Democrat on the Senate banking committee, accused Trump of making an “authoritarian power grab”, while legal scholars said the White House would have to show in court that there was cause to fire Cook.
“I see actions taken by the White House to pressure and intimidate Powell and Cook as part of a strategy to diminish and ultimately eliminate the Federal Reserve’s statutory independence,” said Ed Al-Hussainy, senior rates analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments.
Fraser Lundie, global head of fixed income at Aviva Investors, said any government “exhibiting instability of institutional arrangements and at risk of direct political influence” would result in a weaker currency, a steeper government bond curve and a higher so-called risk premium attached to long-dated debt.
The US dollar fell 0.3 per cent on Tuesday against a basket of its peers, including the euro and the pound. The greenback is down more than 9 per cent this year, as Trump’s trade and broader policies have affected the US economic outlook and investor attitudes to the US.
Economists and investors say Trump’s pressure on the Fed is the most prominent example of a new era of so-called fiscal dominance, in which central bank policy becomes more dictated by governments’ need to keep borrowing costs low to service huge debts.
“There is no question in our view that the Fed is now subject to intensifying fiscal dominance risks,” said Deutsche Bank analyst George Saravelos.
“What is a bigger surprise to us is that the market is not more concerned,” he added, saying investors were being “too complacent” about this risk.
https://www.ft.com/content/d8a8d068-18ba-4e29-a69f-6c155ffc67f3
