Manila is not friendless on the issue. The US as a formal defence ally recently made a show of strength in November, sailing the Nimitz carrier strike group, joined by Philippine Navy vessels and one Japanese destroyer, near Scarborough Shoal – a major flashpoint with China – as part of a two-day joint patrol and exercises in the South China Sea.
That said, there is an acknowledgement in the Philippines that the US of today is not like the US of previous administrations, says Don McLain Gill, lecturer at the Department of International Studies at Manila’s De La Salle University. The trust deficit President Donald Trump has left with partners and allies will be difficult to repair, he told me.
MARITIME-MAINLAND SPLIT
The Philippines’ turn as ASEAN chair may accentuate a split between maritime and mainland Southeast Asia, with the latter tending to be less vocal than Manila on the question of China.
On the mainland, Myanmar is preoccupied with its civil war, and Thailand and Cambodia are embroiled in a conflict with deep historical roots.
Thailand is heading into an election on Feb 8 that, once settled, may offer a chance for a reset with Cambodia. But hyper nationalism on both sides will ensure that grievances will remain – and Thailand itself may remain stuck in a cycle of fragile revolving door coalition governments.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/philippines-south-china-sea-asean-chair-2026-challenges-5637911
