But that’s not the full story. Preliminary data from the upcoming 2025 Lowy Institute Southeast Asia Aid Map shows Chinese disbursements have gradually increased under Marcos compared to his predecessor – albeit from a low base – driven by new China Eximbank infrastructure loans supporting Marcos’ “Build Better More” agenda, totalling around US$200 million so far, with more potentially on the horizon.
This suggests the Marcos government is now cautiously steering towards a more selective, opportunistic approach: Carefully accepting Chinese funding when it fits the country’s needs, while pushing back hard on strategic and security issues.
It’s a tightrope walk. As China becomes more assertive in the region and the West cuts back on global aid spending, the Philippines finds itself with fewer alternatives.
Manila wants to assert its sovereignty, but it also needs roads, bridges and power plants. Pragmatism, not ideology, is driving development finance decisions.
The Philippines’ future will hinge on its ability to continue walking this fine line: Benefiting from China’s development support without being boxed in by Beijing’s strategic agenda. That’s no easy task. But in a region increasingly defined by economic opportunity and geopolitical tension, it may be the only option left.
Alexandre Dayant is a senior economist and Deputy Director of the Lowy Institute’s Indo-Pacific Development Centre. Grace Stanhope is a Research Associate at the same centre. This commentary first appeared on the Lowy Institute’s blog, Interpreter.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/philippines-south-china-sea-foreign-aid-marcos-5027571
