It is one thing for countries to negotiate a trade deal, which typically takes years. Involving politics and security issues, however, complicates an already technical conversation.
Even if countries heed Mr Trump’s call to “build or manufacture product” in the US in exchange for zero tariffs, there is no guarantee that he will not impose more tariffs as part of an effort to confront China.
WINNING BATTLES, BUT LOSING THE WAR
For the moment, countries have little choice but to continue engaging with US trade officials to secure a better deal. But Washington’s tough demands and zero-sum trade approach will push countries away in the long term, diversifying their trade links to avoid over-reliance on the US market.
In the past three months alone, ASEAN countries expanded their trade links with the Gulf Cooperation Council, while agreeing to the third version of their free trade agreement with China. Work is also underway to improve intra-regional trade, which has remained stagnant at roughly 23 per cent since 2000.
The US may win several battles in its quest for concessions via tariffs.
However, it may lose the broader war by driving other countries away, not necessarily into China’s arms, but into a position that is less vulnerable to leverage from Washington.
Kevin Chen is an Associate Research Fellow with the US Programme at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University (NTU), Singapore.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/trump-tariffs-southeast-asia-malaysia-thailand-indonesia-trade-deal-5228846
