Most of all, middle powers can no longer treat trade – and to an extent, their industrial policies – as business-as-usual.
It is insufficient to simply diversify trade partners and enter into free trade arrangements without considering wider geopolitical effects. Neither could they attract foreign direct investments, build free trade zones, develop high-growth industries like rare earths nor build closer relations with China with purely domestic interests.
Trade concerns are now whole-of-government concerns, no longer purely within the ambit of the trade minister. Even then, the skills required for the trade minister expand, requiring technical acumen (export controls, legal regulations, specific industry knowledge, technology), geoeconomic familiarity (supply chain, chokepoints, security, alliances), and international political depth (US-China leaders’ understanding, interpersonal, strategic forums, narratives).
It will be challenging for leaders in Southeast Asia, including Malaysia. Mr Zafrul is scheduled to step down as trade minister as his term as senator expires on Dec 2.
Whether a wholesale Cabinet reshuffle will take place in Malaysia is secondary to the fact that the trade minister will be replaced. Mr Anwar will be confronted with considerations that do not simply involve domestic politics and political parties – and the challenge of finding someone with the relevant skillset to execute perhaps the most complicated role in Cabinet in recent memory.
James Chai is a political analyst, columnist and the author of Sang Kancil (Penguin Random House). He writes a monthly column for CNA, published every second Friday.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/us-malaysia-trade-deal-trump-tariffs-anwar-cabinet-reshuffle-5464916
