CNA Explains: Why Thailand and Cambodia are clashing | USAEMALL.com

What happens next?

The situation remains delicate and uncertain.

Analysts in Thailand have warned that continued militarisation and nationalism on both sides increase the risk of a wider, sustained conflict.

Macro-level impacts across both economies could also be felt beyond the border areas, where regular trade has already been majorly disrupted.

According to the Thailand’s Department of Foreign Trade, Thai-Cambodian border trade in 2024 was valued at about US$5.44 billion.

Key Thai exports included beverages, auto and motorcycle parts, engines, and agricultural machinery.

Cambodia’s main exports to Thailand consisted of cassava, scrap metals such as aluminium and copper as well as electrical wires – all vital to Thai downstream industries like animal feed, recycling and electronics.

There are other underlying and unresolved issues that could interplay with the border situation.

Analysts have queried whether the ruling Pheu Thai party’s push to legalise casinos in Thailand could have contributed to strained ties between the two neighbours.

Border casinos in Cambodia are an important source of revenue for the government, and several have been forced to close during this period.

The Thai legislation has been paused for now but could remain a thorn if the policy remains in the government’s sights down the line.

At present, the government in Bangkok is being led by caretaker Phumtham Wechayachai and holds a razor-thin majority in parliament that could be further imperilled by the latest crisis.

The Cambodian government has said it will continue with ICJ proceedings over the disputed areas, regardless of Thailand’s cooperation in the process, which could take several years. 

For its part, the Thai government said last month it does not recognise the court’s jurisdiction and urged the dispute to be resolved through bilateral means.

Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, ASEAN chairman this year, has called for calm. 

“The least we can expect is for them to stand down and hopefully try to enter into negotiation,” he said. “Peace is the only option available.” 

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, Guo Jiaku, has also expressed Beijing’s worry about the situation.