China’s Two Sessions: 5 issues to look at as political gatherings get underway | USAEMALL.com

BEIJING/SHENZHEN: Whether China lowers its economic growth target for the first time in three years and how it frames the start of its next five-year development blueprint will be closely watched as the country’s most important annual political meetings begin on Wednesday (Mar 4).

The pace of increases in its defence budget and hints on personnel matters will also be among the key watchpoints at the Two Sessions, known in Chinese as lianghui, which set policy priorities for the year ahead in the world’s second-largest economy.

The near-concurrent meetings of China’s top political advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), and the national legislature, the National People’s Congress (NPC), will unveil economic targets, fiscal plans and legislative priorities.

But this year carries added significance. It marks the start of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan, which will shape economic strategy through 2030 as policymakers confront slowing growth, weak domestic demand and rising geopolitical tensions.

Analysts say the tone is likely to focus on stability and realism rather than major policy shifts.

“Continuity and consolidation will be the themes of this year’s Two Sessions. Beijing will stay the course with Xi’s agenda of slower but more secure growth, focused on technological self-reliance and tighter political control,” Neil Thomas, a fellow on Chinese politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis, told CNA.

Here are five things to watch from the political gatherings. 

ECONOMIC GROWTH TARGET

As with previous Two Sessions, the annual growth target will be one of the closest-watched numbers, offering insight into how Beijing is balancing economic pressures against political signalling.

Last year’s growth target was “around 5 per cent”, the same as the previous two years. Although the economy met that mark, logging 5 per cent growth, sluggish consumer spending and a prolonged property downturn weighed on activity.

A trim to this year’s growth target could be on the cards, Thomas said.

“China is likely to lower its growth target to around 4.5 per cent, reflecting the structural reality of slower long-term growth and underscoring Xi Jinping’s prioritisation of economic security and industrial self-reliance,” he said.

Any reduction this year would mark China’s first lowering of its annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth target in three years.