“Domestic priorities – enhancing economic growth quality, managing employment and social expectations, and safeguarding political stability – inevitably elevate the opportunity cost of external commitments”, said Sun of Tsinghua University.
But it will not mean that China is retreating from the international stage altogether.
Instead, emphasis will be on areas where domestic and external interests overlap, Sun added.
“The key lies in delivering public goods where domestic objectives align with external benefits,” he said, pointing to development cooperation, infrastructure connectivity, public health, disaster relief, selective climate and energy initiatives, peacekeeping and humanitarian assistance.
Such engagement, he added, allows China to contribute internationally without overextending itself.
To manage costs and risks, Beijing is also expected to place greater weight on multilateral channels that diffuse responsibility.
China is likely to prioritise “amplifying the efficiency of its contributions through multilateral platforms”, said Sun – particularly through the UN and broadly participatory mechanisms, in order to share burdens rather than assume them alone.
Ping noted that greater involvement can bring trade-offs, including “debt sustainability concerns, perceptions of politicised assistance, and resistance from recipient states seeking strategic autonomy”.
Overreach risks backlash, he added, particularly if Chinese-backed programmes are seen as “undermining transparency, local ownership, or institutional independence”.
Sun said China does assess “the manner and boundaries of its engagement”, but stressed that the starting point “is not avoidance”, rather a desire to prevent the “passive assumption of asymmetric obligations” or being drawn into politicised “traps”.
China will also be wary of filling gaps left by others that could be framed as geopolitical expansion or an institutional challenge, potentially triggering “further stigmatisation and antagonistic mobilisation”, Sun added.
As a result, Beijing is likely to operate within broad multilateral frameworks such as the UN, where responsibilities are shared through established rules and procedures.
“China is not reluctant to shoulder responsibilities,” Sun said, but emphasised that shared responsibility, contribution according to capacity, and adherence to equitable rules reflect a broader concern that global governance should not become a mechanism for a small number of countries to shift costs onto others.
A MULTIPOLAR WORLD, NOT A VACUUM
Chinese leaders have recently repeatedly framed global change through a more multipolar lens, one which sees international players moving away from US dominance towards a more globally-dispersed distribution of power.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has used platforms like meetings linked to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), to call for a world marked by “greater balance”.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has also warned against what Beijing sees as the politicisation and instrumentalisation of international institutions by “a small number of countries”.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/east-asia/us-withdrawal-international-organisations-china-strategy-analysis-5864236
