Canada election 2025: What’s at stake, polls and when to anticipate outcomes | Elections News | USAEMALL.com

Millions of Canadians are queuing up to cast their ballots on Monday in the country’s 45th election to select a new government.

The elections are taking place in the shadow of a trade war with the United States, and at a time of economic uncertainty in the world’s second-largest nation by area.

As of Friday, a record 7.3 million out of 28.9 million eligible voters had already cast their advance votes, according to Elections Canada.

Here is what to know about the election and what is at stake.

What time did polls open and when do they close?

The first polls in Canada opened at 8:30am on Monday (11:00 GMT) in the eastern province of Newfoundland. The last set of polls to open will be across the westernmost province of British Columbia, at 7am local time (14:00 GMT).

In each of Canada’s six time zones, voting centres will remain open for 12 hours.

At 7pm on Monday (02:00 GMT, Tuesday), British Columbia will be the last to see ballots sealed.

When will the results be known?

Ballot counting begins immediately after polls close in each respective time zone. ​

Initial results from regions where polls close earlier, including Newfoundland, could be available by about 8:30pm (23:00 GMT).

Elections Canada, an independent, nonpartisan government agency, says it expects to count the “vast majority” of votes on election night. Preliminary results then typically become available as Canadian media outlets announce winners based on their independent analysis.

Elections Canada posts final, official results about six months after the end of election day.

How does voting work in Canada?

Each eligible voter is assigned a polling station based on their home address, which they can find by entering their postal code on the Elections Canada website.

At the polling station, they prove their identity and address with a government-issued ID, such as a driver’s licence, to receive a ballot paper. They then mark the circle next to the name of the candidate they want to vote for; the candidate with the most votes wins in that electoral area or “riding”, becoming a member of parliament (MP).

The party that gets the most MPs usually forms the government, and its leader becomes the prime minister. Canadians do not vote directly for the prime minister.

Which are the leading parties and their top candidates?

Canada has four main federal political parties.

The Liberal Party has governed Canada most frequently, winning most elections since the country was founded in 1867. Its main rival is the Conservative Party (and earlier conservative parties such as the old “Progressive Conservatives”), which has also won several times.

The Liberals have been in power since 2015, headed by Justin Trudeau until he stepped down in January. The current interim prime minister, Mark Carney, is now one of this year’s top candidates. He is facing off against the Conservative and official opposition leader, Pierre Poilievre, an MP from the Ottawa area who is known for his populist style.

They are also competing against the more left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Jagmeet Singh. The NDP held 24 seats in the outgoing House of Commons — the lower house of Parliament — and had been supporting the Liberals in a minority government deal. That partnership, however, ended last September. Their best result has been being the official opposition once after the 2011 election.

Bloc Quebecois has 33 seats in the outgoing house and is led by Yves-Francois Blanchet. However, it fields candidates only in French-speaking Quebec and is focused on promoting the province’s interests. There is also the Green Party and right-wing People’s Party, but they are much smaller and are not projected to make significant gains this election.

Who is winning the Canadian election according to polls?

Until mid-January, Poilievre-led Conservatives held a commanding lead of up to 26 percentage points over the Liberals, putting them on track to shift the tide of power this year with a majority government.

However, their popularity has since fallen, while the Liberal Party has soared. Currently, polls show that the Liberals are ahead of the Conservatives in a close race.

The Canadian Broadcasting Company Poll Tracker, which aggregates national polling data, had the Liberals with 42.8 percent support, compared with the 39.2 percent for the Conservatives on the eve of the election on Sunday.

The NDP was in third with 8.1 percent, followed by the Bloc Quebecois at 6 percent. The Greens had 1.8 percent and the People’s Party had 1.3 percent.

The dramatic shift follows Trudeau’s resignation and Carney’s rise as Liberal leader, as well as rising concerns over US President Donald Trump’s aggressive approach towards Canada.

A poll from research firm Ipsos on March 20 found that 41 percent of respondents trusted Carney to handle Trump, compared with 31 percent for Poilievre. The poll showed 43 percent believed Poilievre would “roll over and accept” Trump’s demands — almost twice as many as those who felt the same about Carney.

Poilievre and other opposition leaders had built their election campaign on affordability issues such as rising grocery and housing costs.

But experts say Trump’s tariffs and threats to make Canada the “51st state” of the US shifted the campaign’s focus — what matters most to many in Canada now is who they think can best stand up to Washington.

What does Canada look like in 2025?

This year, more than 28.9 million Canadians are eligible to cast their ballots from 10 provinces and three territories to elect the 45th parliament.

They are living in a country of about 41.5 million, where most people reside in urban areas. Quality of life for them is generally considered high as Canada ranks 18th in the world on the Human Development Index, with an average life expectancy of 82 years.

Economically, Canada’s gross domestic product is one of the top 15 in the world at $2.14 trillion. The Canadian dollar is stable, and inflation was relatively low at 2.3 percent in March.

However, costs are rising as opportunities decline. The unemployment rate in March was 6.7 percent, when the country shed 32,600 jobs. This was the first decrease in more than three years, driven by a sharp decline in full-time roles, according to Statistics Canada. Among young people, unemployment was especially high in 2024 and primarily affected Black and Indigenous youth, as well as other minorities.

What is Canada’s political system like?

Canada is a parliamentary democracy, which means laws are made and decisions are taken by an elected parliament. As it is also a constitutional monarchy, Britain’s King Charles III serves as a ceremonial head of state, and his governor general formally signs off on laws passed by Parliament.

Eligible citizens elect members of the House of Commons. If a party secures a majority by winning at least 172 seats, it forms a majority government. If it wins fewer than that, it can still form a minority government with support from other parties.

There is also an upper house of parliament, the Senate, members of which are appointed by the prime minister. Its main job is to review, suggest changes to, and approve laws passed by the House of Commons.

What are the key political issues?

Trump’s tariffs — some imposed, others threatened — on Canadian goods have reshaped domestic politics and public opinion. A March YouGov poll found that nearly half of Canadians now rank US-Canada relations as their top concern.

This was followed by housing worries. Immigration numbers dropped during 2020, but surged again in 2021 as the economy reopened, with an influx of workers and students on temporary visas. Since 2020, average rent across Canada has risen by 18 percent.

At least 33 percent of Canadians say inflation and healthcare are also important issues. Consumer prices are climbing sharply, and inflation is projected to rise further due to the US tariffs, according to Statistics Canada.

Canadians say access to affordable healthcare is difficult, with increasing wait times or having to pay out of pocket for essential health services. The median wait for a referral from a general practitioner reached 27.7 weeks in 2024, up from the 20.9 weeks in 2019, according to the Fraser Institute, a libertarian-conservative Canadian public policy think tank. According to local media reports, 6.5 million Canadians are without a family doctor, and a third of them struggle to get appointments.

What is their usual voter turnout?

According to the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, the global average voter turnout in national elections in 2023 dropped to 55 percent from 65.2 percent in 2008. Canada is well above the global average, with the 2021 election turnout at 62.6 percent.

In the last 100 years, Canada has had 33 elections, and its highest voter turnout was in 1958 at 79.4 percent. The lowest national turnout was 58.5 percent in 2011.

This year’s 7.3 million advance votes surpassed the previous record of 5.8 million, cast during the 2021 election.