Features writer
Olga Primakova
Features writer
Olga Primakova
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Fact Checked by
Elena Bozhkova
Features Lead
Elena Bozhkova
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin has lost the $100,000 level, which added pressure to the market, but there are still no signs of capitulation.
- Investors who bought BTC above $100,000 are cutting exposure as the four-year cycle failed to deliver the expected rally.
- Institutional players are less active than in the summer, yet they continue to accumulate and have not left the market.
- The market remains heavily skewed toward shorts, increasing the risk of sharp moves when volatility picks up.
- About 60% of trading volume now comes from altcoins, pointing to higher speculation and fear among retail traders.
Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped below key levels again, and the wider crypto market is reacting with fear.
Liquidations are rising, volatility is accelerating, and investors are trying to understand whether this is the start of a deeper downturn or just another reset after an overheated summer rally. While sentiment looks increasingly bearish, not everyone sees the current move as a sign of something catastrophic.
Cais Manai, Co-Founder and Head of Product at TEN Protocol, told Cryptonews that what is happening in the market now is a natural phase after the summer rally:
We’re clearly past the euphoria. The phase ended the moment $19 billion in leverage disappeared in a single afternoon. The market ran too hot over the summer and now we’re in the part where reality slows everything down a little. This isn’t doom. It’s a natural period of digestion.
Is Bitcoin More Bullish or Bearish?
One of the main bearish arguments is the idea that the four-year cycle may have stopped working. Many investors relied on it, including expectations of a rally in October and November. To reduce risks, some market participants are exiting their positions. These are likely investors who bought Bitcoin above $100,000 and now prefer to cut exposure rather than risk another drawdown.
However, some believe the cycle has not disappeared but shifted. The Bitcoin halving no longer sets the market tone the way it used to. Institutional money has entered the industry, and institutions, not classical patterns, now drive the trend.
Manai notes that this is not the first correction for Bitcoin price or the crypto market. One purpose of such drops is to shake out short-term and mid-term holders. Historically, Bitcoin tends to recover. Even during the current decline, institutional players continue to accumulate:
Every cycle reaches a moment where people start asking if this is the end, and every cycle Bitcoin proves otherwise. What we’re seeing now is a standard reset. Weak hands are leaving, leverage has been cleared out, strong hands are holding tighter, and new institutional participants are quietly stepping in.
Another bearish factor is weak economic data and uncertainty in global markets. The government shutdown only made it worse. Since federal agencies were inactive for more than a month, some data was not released at all, and the data that was published is questionable.
Because of its volatility, Bitcoin price and altcoins react faster to changes in expectations, especially around interest rates, Manai says:
Macro factors are driving most of what we’re seeing. Rate-cut expectations have softened, and at one point there were even rumours of a fifty-basis-point cut. Once those expectations faded, liquidity thinned and global risk appetite eased. Crypto reacts quickly to that because it is still the highest-beta asset class in the market.
Bitcoin Loses the $100,000 Support
Another factor behind the decline is the loss of the $100,000 level. It was an important psychological support. Now it has become a barrier that BTC must reclaim. The crypto market needs time to stabilize. Manai explains:
The core thesis is unchanged. Hashrate is strong, institutional involvement is deeper than ever, and governments and sovereign funds continue to accumulate. Bitcoin doesn’t need burying. It simply needed a breather so the market could reset before the next move.
There are more bears than bulls at the moment. How long this will last is unclear. One argument against the bearish case is that if the market were collapsing, it would be happening faster. It is possible that Bitcoin and the wider market are simply going through a standard post-summer correction and are now testing new lows.
CoinGlass data shows that the imbalance in favour of shorts remains. The short liquidation leverage curve (green) continues to grow and has already passed $2 billion. Long liquidations (red) remain minimal and continue to decline. This indicates that the market is still heavily skewed toward shorts.
At the current price of about $85,300, any upward move could trigger a large wave of short liquidations, but seller pressure remains dominant. Longs are barely increasing. Their total liquidation level has fallen below $30 million, which shows that most traders have either exited the market or are avoiding long exposure. This imbalance suggests a continuation of one-sided positioning. There are far more shorts than longs, and this increases the risk of sharp moves when volatility spikes.
Are Investors Switching to Altcoins?
There is a noticeable shift in trader behaviour. About 60% of all trading volume now comes from altcoins, the highest level since early 2025. Bitcoin and Ethereum account for only about 20%, which is extremely low compared to previous years.
This structure shows where real activity is happening. Traders increasingly choose altcoins. Such periods usually come with higher speculation. With strong price swings across BTC and altcoins, many traders prefer to trade volatility rather than hold large positions in major assets. Zcash (ZEC) is one recent example.
This also reflects fear among retail traders who are trying to capture profit wherever volatility still exists.
Manai believes the long-term picture has not changed. This is not the first time the market has been in panic:
Every cycle reaches a moment where people start asking if this is the end, and every cycle Bitcoin proves otherwise. What we’re seeing now is a standard reset. Weak hands are leaving, leverage has been cleared out, strong hands are holding tighter, and new institutional participants are quietly stepping in.
The market shows both bearish and bullish signals. There is no sign of capitulation. Institutional players are less active than in the summer, but they have not left. Futures trading remains risky. The market is liquidating both shorts and longs, and it does so quickly.
The current environment feels like a razor, where every move cuts in both directions. In these conditions it is better to stay cautious and wait for clear levels to be reclaimed. For now, one thing is clear: there is no capitulation, but the $100,000 level has not been recovered yet.
https://cryptonews.com/exclusives/bitcoin-price-falls-but-an-expert-says-this-isnt-doom/
