Bangladesh’s democratic reset? Voters again reforms however return outdated guard to energy | USAEMALL.com

Naomi Hossain, global research professor at SOAS University of London, suggested familiarity and experience may have outweighed revolutionary appeal.

BNP is headed by Tarique Rahman, 60, who spent 17 years in self-imposed exile before returning to lead the campaign.

The party was founded in 1978 by his father and ex-Bangladesh President Ziaur Rahman. It was last in power between 2001 and 2006 under Tarique’s mother, former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia.

“Probably, the BNP looks like the safest pair of hands,” Hossain said. “The party has a track record of governance … presiding over relatively robust growth. Its record on the economy and development was reasonable.”

Still, she cautioned that economic challenges loom large.

“The manifestos have been a shopping list of nice things to have, but without any kind of costing or sense of how they will be paid for,” Hossain said.

Bangladesh’s tax-to-GDP ratio remains among the lowest in the world. Domestic revenue mobilisation is weak and public services are underfunded – structural constraints that will test the new government, she added.

REFORM PROMISES AND SCEPTICISM

BNP leaders have pledged to eliminate corruption, follow through on reforms initiated by the interim government and honour the spirit of the 2024 revolution.

But analysts warn that the party’s past complicates those promises.

Kugelman noted that the BNP “reflects the very political system that those behind the protests deplored,” having previously faced accusations of repression, suppression and corruption while in power.

But at the same time, he said the party faces intense pressure – particularly from younger voters – to deliver genuine reform.

Hossain agreed the BNP must prove it has “cleaned up its act.”

One early test will be how it handles the referendum.

The Economist’s Padmanabhan said moving quickly to pass the reforms would demonstrate a genuine commitment to change.

“(It’s) a good opportunity to show that (the BNP) is committed to reforms and ensuring that the failures of the past are not repeated,” he said. “So, if they can get that package passed, that’d be a very good sign.”

Still, Hossain said it remains unclear how meaningful the referendum vote can be, and its success ultimately depends on political will.  

“The reform agenda is proposing to shore up democracy to prevent a return to the backsliding that we saw under the Awami League government,” she said.

“But there are lots of questions about the legal status of the reforms … and the practicality of getting constitutional amendments or new laws passed.”