Commentary: What South Korea’s belated participation within the ‘Hormuz coalition’ reveals | UNW

BROADER IMPLICATIONS FOR SOUTH KOREA

Notwithstanding Seoul’s hesitations about the Iran war, it faces broader implications from changing US policy on Asia. As the recent National Defense Strategy laid out, America’s allies, including South Korea, will have to take “primary responsibility” for its own security as Washington prioritises homeland defence and deterring China.

In effect, this means Seoul will have to expand its geographic scope beyond the Korean Peninsula and participate in Washington’s gambit to check Beijing if it wants to remain a core US ally. Yet this entails the risk of being caught in the intensifying US-China rivalry. In addition, too much involvement in distant places might weaken deterrence on the Korean Peninsula.

The alternative is to take on a larger and more autonomous role for national defence, epitomised by the discussion on the transfer of wartime operational control. This requires Seoul to meet certain conditions, including acquisitions of additional military capabilities.

The problem is that such a move might destabilise the region. Seoul’s development of conventional counterforce to deter Pyongyang independently might elicit an arms race, destabilising the Korean Peninsula. Likewise, its pursuit of nuclear-powered submarines was met by Beijing’s displeasure.

Although Seoul is not facing the binary choice yet, it will likely come under increasing pressure in the coming years. Mr Trump might be mistaken about certain things, but the “Hormuz coalition” is certainly a test for Seoul’s value to Washington. Between a rock and a hard place, South Korea’s political leadership will have to be more prudent and creative in the age of great-power competition.

Jaehan Park is an Assistant Professor at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) at Nanyang Technological University and a Fellow at the Edwin O Reischauer Center for East Asian Studies at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS).