WHERE THE IMPACT LANDS
The pain is concentrated in labour-intensive industries that hits younger workers.
Around 60 textile factories have closed in Indonesia since 2022, leading to the loss of an estimated quarter-million jobs, according to a recent report from the Lowy Institute, a Sydney-based think tank. The Indonesia Fiber and Filament Yarn Producer Association has estimated another half-million are at risk in 2025, effectively wiping out one of four jobs in the sector in a matter of years.
Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s biggest country, with more than 280 million people, isn’t the only one affected.
Thailand recorded roughly 2,000 factory shutdowns last year; officials cited cheap Chinese imports as a major factor. These are the entry-level manufacturing jobs that traditionally absorbed young people, narrowing their most reliable path into the middle class.
It doesn’t stop at low-end production. The US-China Economic and Security Review Commission warns that China’s overcapacity is now reshaping markets far beyond textiles and toys. It’s leaping ahead in advanced industries – from electric vehicles and batteries to pharmaceuticals and robotics – backed by state financing and an aggressive industrial policy.
Economists David Autor and Gordon Hanson argue that the phenomenon known as China Shock 2.0 could be even more disruptive than the first. That era took place between 1999 and 2007 and upended America’s economy, leading in part to the loss of nearly a quarter of all US manufacturing jobs.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/commentary/china-1-trillion-surplus-economic-uncertainty-asia-youth-5605141
