Who makes it and who misses out?
This year’s ninth-placed finisher is shaping as the unluckiest finals absentee of all time, with a potential 14-win side set to miss out on September action amid a serious ladder squeeze.
Our footy experts have gazed into the crystal ball to predict what the standings will look like at the end of the home-and-away season – and whether or not Freo will punch their finals ticket.
CRAIG O’DONOGHUE’S PREDICTED TOP NINE
- Collingwood: 76 premiership points
- Adelaide: 72
- Brisbane: 66
- Geelong: 64
- Gold Coast: 64
- GWS: 64
- Fremantle: 60
- Western Bulldogs: 56
- Hawthorn: 56
CRAIG O’DONOGHUE SAYS: Get ready for Adelaide to finish in the top two. The Crows’ upset win over the Western Bulldogs last weekend has totally changed the season and opened the door for Adelaide to have a real crack.
Matthew Nicks’ men have four of their last six games at home and they’ve only lost one game in SA all season. Those matches include games against Gold Coast, Hawthorn and Collingwood but I’m giving them all of those wins.
It could be a new look top four with Gold Coast’s match against Brisbane in round 20 likely to decide which team makes the top four. I’ll give that one to the Lions.
I can see Fremantle locking up a finals berth before the last game but that match against the Western Bulldogs will decide whether the Dogs or Hawthorn play finals.
CHRIS ROBINSON’S PREDICTED TOP NINE
- Collingwood: 80 premiership points
- Adelaide: 68
- Gold Coast: 68
- Brisbane: 66
- Geelong: 64
- Western Bulldogs: 60
- GWS: 56
- Fremantle: 56
- Hawthorn: 56
CHRIS ROBINSON SAYS: I’ve got it coming down to percentage between GWS, Freo and Hawthorn for spots 7-8-9.
The Hawks are currently seven percentage points north of the Dockers, but I think that can swing. Fremantle get the chance to beef up that number with next week’s derby clash against West Coast, while Hawthorn don’t face a single bottom-four side in their run home and have testing road assignments against Brisbane and Adelaide on either side of a match-up with ladder-leading Collingwood.
The final standings would throw up some brilliant historical first-round match-ups in September, with the Pies and Lions to revisit their grand final rivalry, the Dogs and Giants resuming their hate-hate relationship, and Freo looking to emulate two of their most famous finals wins by facing Geelong in Victoria.
JAKEB WADDELL’S PREDICTED TOP NINE
- Collingwood: 72 premiership points
- Brisbane: 70
- Geelong: 68
- Gold Coast: 68
- Adelaide: 64
- GWS: 64
- Fremantle: 60
- Hawthorn: 56
- Western Bulldogs: 52
JAKEB WADDELL SAYS: I’ve got Fremantle beating Collingwood, the Eagles, Carlton and the Bulldogs in the run home to land a spot in the eight.
There’s every chance it comes down to the Dogs and Dockers fighting for a finals spot in the last round, which would be epic.
That top six should be a lock though.
JACKSON BARRETT’S PREDICTED TOP NINE
- Collingwood: 80 premiership points
- Geelong: 68
- Adelaide: 68
- Gold Coast: 68
- Brisbane: 66
- GWS: 64
- Western Bulldogs: 56
- Hawthorn: 56
- Fremantle: 56
JACKSON BARRETT SAYS: Fremantle’s season is going right down to the wire. Even if they beat Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval in round 22, I’ve got them needing to beat either Brisbane at home or Western Bulldogs in Melbourne across the final two weeks.
I can’t tip them in either game at the moment given the Lions’ form and the Bulldogs’ home ground advantage.
I’ve got the Bulldogs losing to the Giants, but winning all their other games on the way in, while the Hawks edge the Dockers in my predictor despite losing to Adelaide, Collingwood and Brisbane on the run home.
AARON KIRBY’S PREDICTED TOP NINE
- Collingwood: 80 premiership points
- Brisbane: 70
- Geelong: 68
- Adelaide: 68
- Western Bulldogs: 60
- Gold Coast: 60
- GWS: 60
- Hawthorn: 56
- Fremantle: 56
AARON KIRBY SAYS: The Bulldogs will be the team Fremantle follow the closest in the run towards finals.
If the Dockers can take care of business against West Coast, Carlton and Port Adelaide, it leaves them needing two wins in their matches against Collingwood, Brisbane and the Dogs.
Despite having shown they have matured in 2025, I have the pressure of nearly every game being a must-win as too much for the men in purple, going down to the Pies and Dogs away from home, due to a Marcus Bontempelli masterclass, and the reigning premier Lions pipping a thriller in round 23.
I hope I’m wrong, as it would see Fremantle miss finals on percentage to the Hawks despite claiming 14 wins.
JAKE SANTA MARIA’S PREDICTED TOP NINE
- Collingwood: 76 premiership points
- Geelong: 68
- Brisbane: 66
- Adelaide: 64
- Gold Coast: 64
- Fremantle: 64
- Hawthorn: 60
- GWS: 60
- Western Bulldogs: 56
JAKE SANTA MARIA SAYS: The Dockers’ win over Hawthorn makes their finals calculations a lot simpler. I still don’t see them beating the Pies at the MCG, but they should belt West Coast and Carlton.
They should also account for Port Adelaide away, leaving their last two games, Brisbane (home) and Bulldogs (away), as the tough calls.
I’ll give them the win at Marvel, but their relatively poor percentage will leave them short of a top-four charge.
That result is likely to leave the Dogs as the odd team out come season’s end.
https://thewest.com.au/sport/fremantle-dockers/predicted-ladder-which-team-will-be-unlucky-in-ninth-and-who-makes-the-top-four-c-19359453
