Crypto predictions are often plain wrong, ridiculous, or both. So many bulls were boldly asserting that Bitcoin would hit $300,000 in 2025. That’s not looking very likely now, is it?
But there’s one website that’s proven to have a bit of an edge when gazing into the future: Polymarket. The crypto-powered betting platform had accurately predicted that Donald Trump would become U.S. president — and pick up some key battleground states — long before the opinion polls did.
For the uninitiated, Polymarket enables users to buy shares representing “event outcomes.”
Let’s create an imaginary scenario — such as whether a dog will land on the moon this year. If there was a 10% chance of this happening, the “yes” share would be priced at $0.10, with the “no” share valued at $0.90. Should a chihuahua successfully land on the lunar surface by December, those who bet “yes” would see their $0.10 turned into a full $1.
There’s a twist: these odds change in real time. So if a huge step for caninekind begins to look increasingly likely, someone who bought a “yes” share at $0.10 could sell up for a profit if its price rose.
Data from Dune Analytics shows more than 280,000 users have used Polymarket so far in March. But daily trading volumes have taken a sharp tumble since November’s election, and the drama leading up to Trump’s inauguration in January.
Beyond politics and sports, crypto is one of Polymarket’s most popular areas — with enthusiasts putting their money where their mouths are, and betting on how the markets will evolve in the months to come. Without further ado, let’s look at what this website’s users are predicting for 2025.
What Price Will Bitcoin Hit in 2025?
There’s a real diversity of opinion when it comes to how high (or low) BTC will go by December.
At the time of writing, there’s just a 46% chance that the world’s biggest cryptocurrency will rebound and hit $120,000 this year — falling to 27% for $150,000, 12% for $250,000, and a mere 4% for $1 million.
That’s undoubtedly a reflection of the huge outflows from exchange-traded funds throughout March, a sign that institutional interest is waning.
The image above shows optimism among traders has fallen sharply since Trump took office. Back on January 20, the perceived likelihood of BTC accelerating to $150,000 had stood at 62%.
Zooming into this month specifically, Polymarket bettors believe a slump to $75,000 is the most likely outcome — with a 34% chance of this happening.
Will Trump Create a Bitcoin Reserve in the First 100 Days?
Trump really had talked the talk on the campaign trail — and immediately after his election win, Polymarket stated there was a 60% chance he would establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve within the first 100 days of his presidency. Industry groups had even drafted an executive order that could be signed on day one.
But despite this policy formally getting the green light a couple of weeks ago — following speculation that ETH, XRP, SOL and ADA would also be included — complexities surrounding whether this policy will need congressional approval mean it’s unlikely to get up and running by April 30.
The odds for this timeframe stand at 29% right now, rising to 75% when it comes to whether the reserve will be established by the year’s end.
Will Altcoin ETFs Be Approved?
Although the Securities and Exchange Commission has delayed decisions on a flurry of exchange-traded funds tracking smaller cryptocurrencies, there is widespread optimism that they will hit Wall Street at some point in 2025.
Polymarket odds state that a Solana ETF is regarded as most likely — with odds currently standing at 89%. That could be welcome news for the SOL token, which has seen its value battered by the collapse of meme coins.
It’s believed there’s a 77% chance of an XRP ETF — falling to 72% for a Wall Street product tracking Litecoin’s spot price, and 69% for funds focusing on Dogecoin and Cardano.
The ‘No Way in Hell’ Markets
It’s also pretty comical to see the potential crypto scenarios that have very slim odds. For example:
- There’s a 20% chance of Ether hitting an all-time high this year
- Odds of MicroStrategy declaring bankruptcy in 2025 stand at 12%
- Just 6% think Amazon will purchase Bitcoin to hold in reserve by June
- Only 2% believe that SOL will flip ETH before May
- The likelihood of Bybit going bust this year is set at 7%
But as we all know, far crazier things have happened in this unpredictable industry.
The post Revealed: Top Polymarket Crypto Predictions in 2025 appeared first on Cryptonews.
https://cryptonews.com/exclusives/revealed-top-polymarket-crypto-predictions-in-2025/
