Patrick Mahomes’ legacy, a shaken Chiefs dynasty and what comes subsequent: Sando’s Pick Six | USAEMALL.com

NEW ORLEANS — The second Patrick Mahomes interception, right before halftime of a Super Bowl that was already slipping away, left no doubt about what the Kansas City Chiefs must do to stabilize a dynasty shaken by the Philadelphia Eagles in the Superdome.

We’ll get to that soon enough, but with Kansas City suffering a 40-22 defeat to spoil its shot at the first Super Bowl three-peat, the Pick Six column begins with a counterintuitive proclamation.

This defeat actually draws Mahomes’ Chiefs closer to Tom Brady’s New England Patriots in the dynasty department. Both quarterbacks lost Super Bowls as favorites to end their seventh seasons as starters. Both squandered historic opportunities that could have set them apart. For Brady, it was the perfect season, wrecked by Eli Manning’s New York Giants in Super Bowl XLII. For Mahomes, it was the elusive three-peat, buried under a green sea of Eagles pass rushers.

The full menu for this final Pick Six column of the 2024 NFL season:

• Mahomes, Brady and what Chiefs need
• Eagles ran to get here, passed to win
• HOF fallout: small class, less star power
• MVPs: Lamar, Josh and Nikola Jokić?
• Myles Garrett comps, future
• Two-minute drill: Burrow’s chirping

1. Wait, this Kansas City defeat actually draws Mahomes’ Chiefs closer to Brady’s Patriots on the dynasty timeline?

• Dynasty update: The Chiefs were a victory over Philadelphia away from matching the Pittsburgh Steelers’ dynastic run from 1974 to ’79. They stand one championship short but otherwise match up favorably. And their runway appears longer because Mahomes should have much more left now than Terry Bradshaw had left heading into 1980.

Because of that remaining runway, the Patriots comp felt more relevant Sunday, especially with Brady in the broadcast booth for Fox and seeming to experience his post-2007 Super Bowl agony all over again. He knew what was at stake for Mahomes.

“We were on the precipice of history,” Brady said as the Chiefs trailed 40-6 midway through the fourth quarter. “We faced a (Giants) team that played their hearts out that day and beat us. And I still haven’t really lived it down, because you care so deeply, and I know this Chiefs team does as well. Patrick is the ultimate competitor. But the reality of a loss in this game is, you don’t ever get over them.”

Brady’s 2007 Patriots took an 18-0 record into Super Bowl XLII. Favored by 12 against the Giants, they fell 17-14, as gathering Spygate allegations gave critics license to question the legitimacy of New England’s excellence. Brady would later call this defeat the toughest of his career.

“I got on the bus after the game,” Brady said as the fourth quarter dragged on Sunday, “and I had no — I absolutely believed 100 percent we were going to win. And it was just devastating, because I couldn’t speak for the rest of the night. … I just always remember waking up the next morning and I thought, ‘That’s a nightmare. That’s a nightmare. That game didn’t happen. I was dreaming, and we lost badly, but we actually haven’t played the game yet.’”

Mahomes’ 2024 Chiefs were far less dominant during the regular season than those 2007 Patriots were, but their streak of 17 consecutive victories in one-score games, aided by a few high-profile penalty flags that opportunists wielded to discredit Kansas City, provided a sense of inevitability to their games.

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The Chiefs’ reach for immortality, Bills, Eagles (and refs) be damned: Sando’s Pick Six

Mahomes’ incredible 106-27 record as a starter (counting playoffs) is nearly identical to Brady’s 104-29 mark through the same number of career starts. Both sat on the bench behind hard-luck No. 1 overall picks (Drew Bledsoe in New England, Alex Smith in Kansas City) before winning three Super Bowls quickly — Brady needing four seasons to do it, Mahomes six.

Those Patriots kept the same head coach (Bill Belichick), quarterback (Brady), defensive architect (Belichick), special teams coach (Brad Seely) and kicker (Adam Vinatieri) through their first three Super Bowl wins. Kansas City has had Andy Reid, Mahomes, Steve Spagnuolo, Dave Toub and Harrison Butker in those roles for six seasons and counting.

“That right there is the most powerful part of the whole thing,” a coach from another team said, “because they do not make the big errors, they are the most deadly team late in halves — just complete core competence.”

Those things probably aren’t changing much for the Chiefs any time soon, but Kansas City can learn from what the Patriots, in retrospect, wish they had done after losing their shot at history in that crushing defeat to the Giants in Arizona.

• Lessons in the Patriots’ regret: New England’s 2007 season was its third in a nine-season run without a Super Bowl victory. The torn ACL Brady suffered in the 2008 opener had something to do with that, but Belichick later regretted letting the defense slide from 2009 to ’13.

The Patriots had been such an offensive machine in 2007 that they fell into a trap by thinking they could simply outscore teams. The emergence of Chandler Jones, Jamie Collins and others (plus the one-year rental of Darrelle Revis in 2014) contributed to New England winning Super Bowls again after the 2014, 2016 and 2018 seasons.

The challenge for the Chiefs is similar now. Their streak of 17 consecutive victories in games decided by eight or fewer points has opened a wide gap between their record (23-2 in their past 25 games before Sunday, excluding a game when Kansas City rested starters) and their average point differential across those games (6.3, which is good, but not as dominant as the record would indicate).

Losing as badly as the Chiefs lost to Philadelphia should help Kansas City face its shortcomings with honesty.

Mahomes ranked first in EPA/dropback over his first five years as a starter (2018-22), including playoffs, at 0.25. The next-best (minimum three seasons played) was Aaron Rodgers at just over half of Mahomes’ mark (0.13). Mahomes ranks ninth since the start of 2023 at 0.11, just over half of Brock Purdy’s league-leading figure (0.21) during that span.

The Chiefs should not shrug off Mahomes’ diminishing returns in the passing game simply because the team kept winning anyway. After investing first- or second-round picks on receivers Skyy Moore, Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy over the past three drafts, in addition to spending a 2025 conditional fourth on DeAndre Hopkins during this past season, it’s time to address the real problem.

• Circling back to Marino: When the Chiefs started the season 7-0, we warned that Mahomes, like Dan Marino at about the same point in his career, needed improved play from his offensive tackles to regain peak production in the passing game.

“I might find a way to get a real tackle, a legitimate one-side-or-the-other tackle, and solidify that for the next five years to protect the quarterback so he is not running for his life and having to make all the plays,” an exec from another team said after the Chiefs’ 7-0 start.

Kansas City adjusted successfully by moving guard Joe Thuney to left tackle, but when the Eagles’ Josh Sweat drove Thuney into Mahomes, forcing the interception shortly before halftime, it was a reminder that the Chiefs should still pursue a long-term solution.

Credit the Eagles. They built a dominant pass rush and won the game exactly how other teams have beaten Mahomes over the years: by making him hold the ball until the pass rush converged. Blame Mahomes. He put the ball at risk early in the game, over and over.

“There’s things I have to get better at, and they kinda showed today on the biggest stage. I have to find a way this offseason to combat what defenses are doing to me,” he said afterward. “I can’t make bad plays worse. … That’s why I take ownership in this loss more than probably any loss in my entire career, because I put us in the bad spot.”

Is time on Mahomes’ side? We asked the question last week (item No. 3 here) in laying out how Mahomes’ average time to throw (or to sack) correlated so strongly with the Chiefs’ wins and losses. The correlation was much stronger for Mahomes than it was for Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, two other mobile star quarterbacks (see table below).

Through three quarters Sunday, Mahomes held the ball longer, on average, than he had in all but one career start (3.65 seconds). That shrunk to 3.30 by game’s end, thanks to garbage-time production.

As the chart below shows, many of Mahomes’ defeats look the same.

The Chiefs are 6-12 when Mahomes has an average time to throw of 3.23 seconds or longer, including Sunday’s loss. They are 1-8 when it is 3.34 seconds or longer.

Marino’s Dolphins drafted left tackle Richmond Webb, who became a perennial Pro Bowl choice, along with guard Keith Sims in 1990. Marino’s once-historic production, which had been in retreat, same as Mahomes’ is now, returned to some degree, although a torn Achilles tendon and other issues prevented a full Marino revival.

Could the Chiefs pull off something similar?

Following Mahomes’ first Super Bowl loss — when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ pass rush hounded him much like the Eagles’ did on Sunday — Chiefs general manager Brett Veach remade the offensive line emphatically, signing Thuney to a record contract, trading for tackle Orlando Brown Jr. and drafting center Creed Humphrey and guard Trey Smith (who is now set to be a top free agent). It would be tough to match that in a single offseason, but that should surely be Veach’s top priority.

• New England’s edge: Belichick was a few months shy of his 56th birthday when his Patriots lost that Super Bowl to the Giants after the 2007 season. He coached 16 more seasons, with the dynasty continuing for 12 of those seasons until Brady departed.

Reid turns 67 in March. He might catch Belichick and even Don Shula on the all-time wins list, but he won’t be coaching another dozen seasons. Brady thrived under various offensive play callers and another head coach (Bruce Arians in Tampa), but we haven’t yet seen Mahomes without Reid, who has gotten the best out of almost every quarterback who has ever played for him. Spagnuolo isn’t far behind Reid at 65.

Travis Kelce is 35, declining statistically and could be approaching retirement. Chris Jones is 31. Neither has missed extended time due to injury other than Kelce’s rookie season. Mahomes has never played without Kelce the way Brady did without Rob Gronkowski due to injury (2013, 2016) and a temporary retirement (2019). Brady’s play suffered in Gronkowski’s absence.

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No one is writing off Mahomes’ ability to overcome such things. Even if the dynasty window remains open in Kansas City, there must be renewed urgency after a defeat as resounding as this one.

“It’s a difficult feeling to have,” Brady continued on the broadcast, “but if there’s anybody that can rebound, it’s Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid. This organization and what they’re built on, they got so many great tenets of this organization in place.”

2. The Chiefs weren’t going to let Saquon Barkley beat them. Jalen Hurts and a dominant defense were plenty. That, and other quick-hitters from Super Bowl LIX, including a poll on officiating.

• Doing it right: When the Eagles win Super Bowls, they do it right — first against Belichick, Brady and New England, now against Reid, Mahomes and Kansas City, and both interrupting what might have otherwise been a three-peat.

Their 41-33 victory over the Patriots after the 2017 season featured the second-most points scored against a New England defense in the 429 total games Belichick coached the team. Their 40-22 victory Sunday handed the Chiefs their second-worst point differential in a game with Mahomes in the lineup (Kansas City lost 27-3 at Tennessee in 2021), even after two garbage-time K.C. touchdowns.

These were signature victories of the highest order.

• Hurts’ validation: Jalen Hurts carried the Lombardi Trophy from the Eagles’ locker room into a hallway, where he sat with the hardware and, appearing exhausted, took some time to soak in the moment. His redemption story is well-known. Now, it is complete. He’s a Super Bowl champion, Super Bowl MVP and, along with Brady, a winner over Mahomes’ Chiefs on the biggest stage.

Was pretty cool seeing @JalenHurts walk away with the Lombardi Trophy, trying to take in a pretty crazy moment. Guy who was benched in college, dismissed as a pro prospect, and kept his head down.

Great lessons for everyone in the Eagles QB’s path. pic.twitter.com/Z1ESXnjFUG

— Albert Breer (@AlbertBreer) February 10, 2025

• Lurie joins club: Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie, who purchased the team in 1994, joined a short list of current owners with multiple Lombardi Trophies.

Robert Kraft has six since buying the Patriots that same year. Kansas City’s Clark Hunt has three since succeeding his father as owner in 2006. Dallas’ Jerry Jones has three since 1989. The Giants’ John Mara has two since succeeding his father in 2005.

Other families have won more than one, from the Glazers in Tampa to the Rooneys in Pittsburgh, but not under their current principal owners.

• Barkley to Hurts: Twenty-five carries. Fifty-seven yards. Longest gain: 10. That was the stat line for Barkley against the Chiefs.

It was enough to move Barkley past 1998 Terrell Davis for most rushing yards in a full season, counting playoffs. Barkley needed 20 games to surpass what Davis did in 19. His regular-season rushing accounted for 32 percent of the Eagles’ total yards, the third-highest rate for a leading rusher on a Super Bowl team (1998 produced the top two, with Davis at 33.6 percent and Atlanta’s Jamal Anderson at 33.0).

The chart below extends the same research to include playoff production, with a focus on Super Bowl winners since 2005. Barkley’s rushing accounted for 33 percent of Philadelphia’s total yards, the first time any back has topped 25 percent since 2004. Again, he was the engine that drove this Eagles offense — even Sunday, when the Chiefs sold out to stop him, creating opportunities for Hurts to exploit in the passing game (17 of 22, 221 yards) and as a runner himself (game-high 72 yards on 11 carries).

It’s been decades since a team won a Super Bowl by leaning so heavily on one running back. After Barkley led a league-wide renaissance at the position, is this a model to follow moving forward? An outlier?

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While running games are on the upswing across the league, the Eagles did it with the league’s best running back, best offensive line and perhaps the best defense, too. That’s a difficult formula to recreate.

• Moore to Saints: Would the market for soon-to-be New Orleans Saints coach Kellen Moore be stronger now if six of the seven teams with head-coaching vacancies had not made their hires already? Jacksonville and Dallas conducted virtual interviews with Moore, but that was the extent of his market outside New Orleans.

By leaning into the run game, Moore bucked the stereotype of the offensive coordinator who tries to help his job prospects by padding his stats through the air.

The head coach has something to do with that as well. What’s his name again?

• Credit to Sirianni: When we outlined NFC contender concerns in early December, there were two for the Eagles.

The first was their 1.3-point scoring average in first quarters, which ranked 792nd out of 796 teams since 2000 to that point in a season, per TruMedia. Philly averaged a league-leading 10.3 offensive points per game in first quarters from that moment through the playoffs. Problem solved.

The second concern for the Eagles entering the season’s final stretch: Nick Sirianni’s temperament.

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“It is amazing how they have evolved and how Sirianni now is Coach of the Year material,” an exec from another team said at the time. “Can Sirianni keep it going another month? They have players and they have really competent coordinators. I think they learned from what happened last year. The defensive guys especially are in a better place. They have punched the clock better and more consistently as workers than they did last year.”

Mission accomplished. Sirianni handled the Super Bowl spotlight comfortably. His team was ready to play every week.

“From my perspective, working with successful teams and non-successful teams, it’s all about the head coach,” another exec said. “How is he managing all of the things at his disposal to get players to play well on Sunday? Calling plays is the most overvalued thing with a coach. Having a good game plan, having good processes, getting your guys to play hard through things. To me, that is the mark of a good coach.”

• About that OPI call: Before the Eagles pulled away, officiating threatened to become a leading storyline thanks to a call for offensive pass interference on the Eagles’ opening drive. The call wiped out a 32-yard gain on fourth-and-2, precipitating a Philly punt.

The Eagles were called for Offensive PI on this play

Do you agree with the call? pic.twitter.com/WIWgpCgRVh

— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) February 9, 2025

I asked four coaches to rate the call on a 1-10 scale, with 10 being at the most egregious end of the spectrum.

Their answers: 8.0, 7.5, 7.0 and … 2.0.

“Very rarely does that get called,” one of the coaches said.

Think of it another way. If officials failed to make the call, would the Chiefs submit the play to the league office for retroactive review? Probably not.

The outlier coach said he was OK with the call because the receiver, A.J. Brown, significantly hindered the defender, cornerback Trent McDuffie, in a one-way exchange that would not qualify as hand-fighting.

The coach rendering a 7.5 grade noted that the official throwing the flag, side judge Boris Cheek, ranks highly among officials at his position in penalty rate.

Fortunately for everyone but Kansas City, the call became a footnote, nothing more. The flags evened out some when a call for unnecessary roughness against McDuffie prolonged the Eagles’ second drive.

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3. The Hall of Fame shrunk its class for 2025 without raising the bar for enshrinement. Here’s how to fix the problem.

The Hall adopted new rules this year to “help ensure that membership in the Hall of Fame remains elite” after some felt too many borderline candidates were earning gold jackets.

The changes reduced the class size to four in 2025 after the Hall averaged 7.8 inductees per year from 2015-24, not counting a 20-member Centennial class.

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Antonio Gates, Eric Allen and Jared Allen earned enshrinement as modern-era players. Sterling Sharpe earned enshrinement as a senior player (retired at least 25 years). The four-member class was the Hall’s smallest since 2005.

The changes failed in another sense because, in my view as one of the 49 selectors, the committee did not sufficiently prioritize voting for the most elite candidates regardless of how long other candidates had been waiting.

Gates and linebacker Luke Kuechly met the super-elite standard better than the other modern-era finalists, but Kuechly, in his first year of eligibility, was forced to wait.

Opinions on players vary. Not everyone will agree with my take on Kuechly relative to the other finalists. But I’m very confident the public outcry would be much louder if, say, Kuechly were excluded over a 10-year period than if Eric Allen, Jared Allen or both were excluded for that long (Eric Allen had been excluded much longer than that, gaining enshrinement in his 19th year of eligibility).

Some voters advocate hurrying to enshrine long-eligible candidates before they fall into an abyss with other senior candidates, perhaps never to surface again. Some of these voters also complain about too many first-ballot selections, contending these players push others into the seniors category.

This thinking was more defensible when enough slots were effectively available for nearly all finalists to earn enshrinement eventually. Following this line of thinking under the new, more restrictive rules creates a disconnect with the Hall’s mission to improve class quality. That disconnect was on display Thursday night when the Hall introduced a class lacking in both size and star power.

The table above stacks the 15 modern-era finalists for 2025 by how likely each was to earn enshrinement based on Pro Football Reference’s Hall of Fame Monitor score, which takes into account career production and honors. This is not, by any means, how Hall classes should be elected. But it’s a thoughtful, independent point of reference.

It’s telling when almost none of the highest-rated players earn enshrinement. Voters must recalibrate.

The chart below arranges modern-era Hall of Fame player classes by weighted career AV (Y axis) and Hall of Fame Monitor score (X axis).

The problem should resolve itself temporarily in 2026 when Drew Brees and Larry Fitzgerald become eligible. A three-man class with Brees, Fitzgerald and Kuechly would rank sixth among 46 modern-era player classes since 1980 in average Hall of Fame Monitor score (the 2025 class ranks 40th). Bill Belichick could be the choice in the senior/coach/contributor category, further elevating the 2026 class prestige.

There are other concerns.

In addition to the 15 modern-era finalists listed above, the committee also considered three seniors, one coach and one contributor separately. Sharpe was the only one to earn enshrinement under rules that assure between one and three are enshrined.

The Hall would be wise to reconsider slot allocation.

Three slots for seniors is too many after 18 were enshrined in the past six years, including 10 in 2020. I see no obvious contributor candidates beyond Robert Kraft. Should that category be in the mix every year? Mike Holmgren, Mike Shanahan and Tom Coughlin are the strongest coach candidates, pending Belichick’s eligibility. Their candidacies are stronger than those for contributors.

The way things are set up now, voters pick three of the five finalists in this combined category, with 80 percent of votes (40 of 49 this year) required for enshrinement.

Seven of the broader selection committee members serve on the subcommittee for senior candidates. They could, in theory, vote only for seniors, while the other subcommittee members (nine on the coach committee and seven on the contributor committee) must also choose players. I do not think subcommittee voters are this rigid, but with every vote being so precious, and with players naturally having the edge over coaches and contributors anyway, the 3-1-1 distribution exaggerates the imbalance.

We saw the results of that imbalance when only Sharpe qualified, when many voters thought both Sharpe and Holmgren would make it.

4. Lamar Jackson was the Associated Press’ first-team All-Pro quarterback, but Josh Allen was the MVP. What happened? Someone should ask NBA superstar Nikola Jokić.

A call came in from a veteran NFL executive after the Pick Six column from Dec. 2 explained why Jackson looked like the best MVP candidate with roughly a month remaining in the regular season.

The betting odds had shifted in Allen’s favor as the players’ statistics came into closer alignment for a stretch. Jackson would later rally, and when he was named the first-team All-Pro QB over Allen, that seemed to signal Jackson was in line for his third MVP.

Bills QB Josh Allen wins AP NFL MVP after finishing second to Lamar Jackson in All-Pro voting. Allen is third player to win MVP after not making first-team All-Pro. Steve McNair shared 2003 MVP with Peyton Manning after Manning was the All-Pro and John Elway beat out #49ers Jerry…

— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) February 7, 2025

When Allen won the award, that December conversation with the NFL executive came to mind. The exec had theorized that Jackson’s candidacy would suffer because he had already won MVP honors twice without enjoying much playoff success.

“Jokić ran into the same problem when he was the best player in the league, but he was not winning playoff games,” the exec said.

Jokić was the NBA’s MVP for the 2020-21 and 2021-22 seasons. He finished second in 2022-23, but when his Denver Nuggets won a championship after that season, Jokić re-emerged as the MVP in 2023-24.

“As Jokić went into that third (potential MVP) season, it felt like, if he doesn’t have accomplishments in the playoffs, no matter how good he is playing in the regular season, we are not going to let him be an MVP,” the exec said.

This line of thinking did not make sense to me. I saw my job as analyzing how players performed during the 2024 regular season. While I thought Allen was a solid choice, I voted for Jackson as my first-team All-Pro QB and as the MVP, for reasons laid out here.

“Your statistical analysis is right on,” the exec said, “but at a certain point, if you do not deliver in the postseason when you have been an MVP in the regular season, it somewhat disqualifies you until you have had that success.”

Seven voters named Jackson as their first-team All-Pro QB while listing Allen as their MVP. That swung the results for Allen. He’s a worthy candidate, but the logic behind some voters’ choices still does not compute for me.

5. Myles Garrett wants out of Cleveland. Should we take his request at face value? Here’s what is so interesting about the situation.

Garrett is one of 16 defensive linemen in NFL history with at least four Associated Press first-team All-Pro selections across his fourth through eighth NFL seasons, per Pro Football Reference.

Of those 16, Garrett is among 11 whose Year 8 production — as measured by PFR’s Approximate Value metric — did not fall substantively. Those elite players’ season-level AV in Years 4-8 declined over their ninth through 11th seasons in all but one case (Randy White).

Reggie White also sustained at an elite level, but as the table above indicates, most of the comps for Garrett had played their best football entering their ninth seasons. It’s something for the Browns and any team interested in acquiring Garrett to consider as part of its planning.

Garrett, who turned 29 in December, has two years remaining on his contract. None of that money is guaranteed. That can be unnerving for players. Garrett’s earning power is likely higher now, entering his ninth season, than it will be entering his 11th season. Are the Browns interested in a massive extension? Any team acquiring him might want longer-term certainty.

It’s always about the money, right? Three decades of covering this league took my mind there first upon hearing the news Garrett wanted out of Cleveland.

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It’s also plausible under these specific circumstances for Garrett to want out because he no longer sees the Browns’ timeline as aligned with his own. The Deshaun Watson situation hovers over the organization like a cloud.

Even if that cloud clears, what are the chances Cleveland suddenly procures a championship-caliber quarterback after struggling to find even average ones for decades? Why would Garrett trust the process?

In related news, teammate Joel Bitonio suggested he might retire if the Browns rebuild.

Listening to some of these Myles Garrett interviews on radio row, you’d think the #Browns are coming off 1-31. They went 11-6 in 2023 & made the playoffs w/5 QBs. They had DPOY, Coach/Year, Asst/Year, Comeback POY. It’s about the QB. They need one.

— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) February 6, 2025

“There is no way they are going to trade that guy,” an evaluator from another team said of Garrett. “They would be crazy to. I think they are just going to sit on it and simmer it down. That said, when Bitonio came out and said he had doubts as well, it affirmed for me that this is all about Deshaun Watson. I think they want him out of the building and they want a clear path to no more drama.”

6. Two-minute drill: Joe Burrow keeps pushing the Bengals’ front office, but will it work?

Before the 2020 draft, former NFL quarterback Steve Bartkowski advised Burrow to “pull an Eli Manning” if the Bengals drafted him by forcing a trade, as Manning had done when the Chargers picked him two decades ago. Burrow decided to take his chances with the Bengals, who rewarded him by arming the young QB with a roster that helped Cincinnati reach the Super Bowl after the 2021 season.

That roster has deteriorated, especially on defense. The franchise is now heading toward a moment of truth as Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Trey Hendrickson and Mike Gesicki are among the Cincy players at contract crossroads. Higgins and Gesicki are set to be free agents, while Chase and Hendrickson want hefty extensions.

Joe Burrow on Breakfast Ball on @FS1 right now asked if he is willing to restructure to help keep everyone together: “Of course.”

On if he has faith #Bengals ownership will be willing to spend and get all these deals done: “I do. I do. We have the cap space to get it done. I…

— Paul Dehner Jr. (@pauldehnerjr) February 6, 2025

Burrow keeps imploring the team to keep its core around him, going so far as to play the “I’ll restructure my contract” card. That declaration makes it harder for the Bengals to cite cap concerns, framing the situation as one where Cincy is either willing or not willing to shell out the cash.

“He is putting the hammer on them,” an exec from another team said. “Carson Palmer 2.0.”

Palmer forced his way out of Cincinnati 15 years ago after growing frustrated with the organization. Burrow does not appear close to heading down that road, but neither is he sitting by idly as a pivotal offseason approaches. Far from it.

“I’m of the thought that when he decided not to make an Eli Manning situation with Cincinnati in the draft, that he had talks beforehand about how they were going to proceed with player acquisition,” another exec said. “And now it is to the point where they have to hold up their end of the bargain.”

The chart above compares Burrow to Palmer using team games relative to .500 as their careers played out.

“Carson got hurt in a playoff game, but Joe got them to the Super Bowl,” another exec said. “That carries a lot of weight going forward. The issue is going to be, will they spend money elsewhere, at a level necessary to keep guys? I think that this time they might. I’m not saying they will have a wholesale change in their philosophy. Joe has the leverage to have them do something that they might not have wanted to do.”

The Bengals reached the 2021 Super Bowl after a historically strong offseason that could be difficult to replicate. The players Cincy added heading into that season — Chase, Hendrickson, Larry Ogunjobi among them — added more Approximate Value than the offseason additions for all but three Super Bowl teams since 1970, per Pro Football Reference.

• Rodgers’ future: The news that the Jets will move on without Aaron Rodgers amplifies questions about the quarterback’s future.

Will Rodgers play again?

“I bet he doesn’t,” an agent said. “He won’t want the teams that will want him.”

A team executive noted that Rodgers can “definitely” still play well enough to upgrade teams on the field, but smart team builders will struggle with adding everything else that comes along with Rodgers. That’s what the Jets are moving on from as well.

• On the Jets’ setup: Time will tell whether the Jets will become winners after hiring Aaron Glenn as coach, Darren Mougey as GM and Rick Spielman in the newly created role of senior football adviser. The search was a resounding win for the people who led it, in more ways than one.

Mike Tannenbaum, the former Jets GM and 33rd Team founder, interviewed more than 30 candidates for the coach and GM jobs. While those interviews surely improved the process for the Jets, they also bolstered Tannenbaum’s own knowledge of the candidates, which is huge for anyone in the consulting business. Spielman, who co-led the search with Tannenbaum, emerged with the type of job front-office veterans dream of — close to the action, but not directly accountable for on-field results.

Spielman’s right-hand man in Minnesota was George Paton (current Denver GM), who recommended his right-hand man Darren Mougey for the Jets GM job. And now Mougey has hired Spielman and Rob Paton, George’s nephew. #Jets

— Rich Cimini (@RichCimini) February 6, 2025

• Saleh’s return: The 49ers already pocketed multiple third-round picks after the Jets hired Robert Saleh away from San Francisco to be their head coach, under rules promoting diverse hires. They re-hired Saleh as defensive coordinator this offseason after the Jets fired him as their head coach, which means the cycle could repeat if Saleh remains with San Francisco for the 2025 and 2026 seasons, at least, before another team hires him as its head coach.

Teams typically receive two third-round picks when other teams hire away minority candidates to be their head coaches or GMs. The 49ers got three third-rounders as part of the Saleh departure because they simultaneously lost another minority candidate, Martin Mayhew, to the Washington Commanders’ GM job. Double departures such as these return three third-rounders instead of four.

Getting extra picks is great, but in this case, the 49ers did not maximize them. They selected since-cut cornerback Ambry Thomas with one of the extra third-rounders. They sent another to Miami as part of the ill-fated Trey Lance trade. They used another for kicker Jake Moody, who has struggled.

• Eagles crowd: Eagles fans seemed louder than Chiefs fans during pregame warmups, so I put the crowd to a decibel test during each team’s opening drive.

Using a measuring app in the open-air press box high above the field, noise for the Eagles’ first couple of plays vacillated from the low 80s to near 90, spiking to 95 when the Chiefs made a tackle for loss, and before Philly’s first third-down play. The meter hit 99 before the fourth-and-2 play, spiking to 105 after Hurts completed a deep pass on the play (wiped out by the aforementioned offensive pass interference).

Noise was around 95 decibels for the Chiefs’ first offensive play and 99 before their first third-down play. So, yes, Eagles fans seemed louder from the start.

• New Orleans shines: New Orleans strengthened its reputation as a leading Super Bowl city with an assist from the weather, which turned from freezing to borderline steamy just in time.

Favorite meals: catfish smothered in shrimp etouffee at Mulate’s; the lightly breaded, warmly seasoned chicken at Gus’s World Famous Fried Chicken; the tagliatelle with bolognese at Gianna, where the cheesy bread carries hints of citrus; and the beignets at Cafe Beignet.

Hospitality highlights: cheerful volunteers pre-emptively speaking with visitors on the streets to make sure they knew where they were headed.

Practical highlights: I walked everywhere except to the game itself. Hotels were close to restaurants and the convention center, which housed the NFL experience and media workrooms.

(Photo: Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)